--- title: "Norway's $2.2T Sovereign Fund Models 'AI Correction' Crashing Nvidia, Broadcom—And The Results Are Brutal" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/274339176.md" description: "Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM) has conducted a stress test on its $2.2 trillion sovereign wealth fund, predicting a severe 'AI correction' scenario. The model indicates a 53% drop in equities and a 35% decrease in fund value, while bonds could rise by 10%. This scenario highlights the risks of market concentration in the tech sector, particularly for major stocks like Nvidia and Broadcom. The findings suggest that bonds may serve as a hedge in a tech-led deflationary crash, challenging the traditional 60/40 portfolio strategy." datetime: "2026-01-30T16:54:35.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/274339176.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/274339176.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/274339176.md) --- > 支持的語言: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/274339176.md) | [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/274339176.md) # Norway's $2.2T Sovereign Fund Models 'AI Correction' Crashing Nvidia, Broadcom—And The Results Are Brutal Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM), which runs Norway's $2.2 trillion sovereign wealth fund, has modeled a brutal “AI correction” —and the stress test shows equities down 53%. ## **What NBIM Modeled** In the fund's “AI correction” scenario, where the capex boom fails to produce real productivity gains, the model shows equities plummeting by 53% and the fund’s total value dipping by 35%, while fixed income increases by 10%. NBIM assumes central banks respond, pushing yields down. NBIM says market concentration makes this year's AI scenario more punishing—a bigger equity hit, only partly offset by bonds. The stakes are high because NBIM is the world's largest single stock owner, holding roughly 1.5% of all listed equities globally. ## Prediction Markets Price The “Bust” Risk On Polymarket, the contract for “AI bubble burst by…?” prices the risk of a major sector crash at roughly 18% by December 31, 2026. Unlike vague sentiment surveys, the Polymarket contract has strict, definable triggers for a “burst”: - **NVIDIA Corp** (NASDAQ:NVDA) dropping 50% from its all-time high. - **iShares Semiconductor ETF** (NASDAQ:SOXX) dropping 40% from its all-time high. - Major supply chain names like **Broadcom Inc** (NASDAQ:AVGO) or **Taiwan Semiconductor** (NYSE:TSM) dropping 50%. ## **Why It Matters: The Return of the Hedge** One of the most critical takeaways from the NBIM model for retail investors is the behavior of bonds. While the “60/40 portfolio” has been criticized in recent years, the Norwegian model suggests that in a tech-led deflationary crash, policy support would push yields down, making bonds a functional offset again. If the AI narrative cracks, index concentration poses a specific risk to **Invesco QQQ Trust** (NASDAQ:QQQ) and **SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust** (NYSE:SPY). The world’s largest stock owner is officially modeling a tail-risk scenario where AI fails to deliver and they see Treasuries like the **iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF** (NASDAQ:TLT) as the only asset class modeled to post gains _Image: Shutterstock_ ### 相關股票 - [GraniteShares 2x Short NVDA Daily ETF (NVD.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/NVD.US.md) - [AXS 1.5X NVDA Bear Daily ETF (NVDS.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/NVDS.US.md) - [NVIDIA (NVDA.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/NVDA.US.md) - [Spdr Select Tech (XLK.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/XLK.US.md) - [Broadcom (AVGO.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/AVGO.US.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [Jensen Huang just said something astounding about Nvidia's revenue potential](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281584243.md) - [Nvidia just proved again that it's a kingmaker for AI companies](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281214169.md) - [1 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock That Could Be Worth a Fortune by 2030](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281692739.md) - [Nvidia's AI Chip Demand Drives Higher Rental Prices](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281637604.md) - [Nvidia (NVDA) Stock’s Discount Could Get Even More Attractive for Patient Speculators](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281203180.md)