--- title: "Dongxing Securities: The increase in the penetration rate of perovskite batteries combined with the development of space photovoltaics will drive the rubidium salt market into a new cycle of structural expansion" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/274940273.md" description: "Dongxing Securities Co., Ltd. released a research report stating that the penetration rate of perovskite photovoltaic cells is rapidly increasing, and the development of space photovoltaics will significantly drive the demand for rubidium salt. It is expected that between 2025 and 2030, global demand for rubidium salt will increase from 37 tons to 1,696 tons, with an average annual growth rate of 115%. Perovskite batteries, due to their advantages of low cost and high efficiency, are gradually replacing traditional crystalline silicon batteries, and the use of rubidium salt will be a key factor in their mass production. It is recommended to pay attention to related companies GMK and SINOMINE" datetime: "2026-02-05T08:38:33.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/274940273.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/274940273.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/274940273.md) --- > 支持的語言: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/274940273.md) | [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/274940273.md) # Dongxing Securities: The increase in the penetration rate of perovskite batteries combined with the development of space photovoltaics will drive the rubidium salt market into a new cycle of structural expansion According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Dongxing Securities released a research report stating that the penetration rate of the perovskite photovoltaic battery market in China is rapidly increasing, and the development of space photovoltaic fields may significantly boost the demand for rubidium salt. Based on a comprehensive fitting calculation of multiple data sources, it is estimated that between 2025 and 2030, the global demand for rubidium salt in ground photovoltaic application scenarios may rise from 37 tons to 1,696 tons, with a CAGR of approximately 115%. Given the continuous development of the perovskite battery industry, the global rubidium and cesium salt market is entering a new expansion cycle of structural consumption, and the change in rubidium and cesium consumption space from 1 to N will significantly optimize the growth elasticity of related enterprises in the industrial chain. It is recommended to pay attention to GMK (300619.SZ) and SINOMINE (002738.SZ). ## The main points of Dongxing Securities are as follows: **Perovskite solar cells (PSCs) are a new type of compound thin-film solar cell that uses perovskite materials as the light-absorbing layer.** Perovskite is a class of naturally occurring ceramic oxides, first discovered in the calcium titanate compound found in perovskite ore, hence the name. Perovskite mainly occurs in alkaline rocks and occasionally appears in altered pyroxenite, often coexisting with ilmenite. Compared to traditional crystalline silicon batteries, perovskite batteries have multiple advantages such as low cost, high efficiency, lightweight, flexibility, and excellent weak light characteristics. **Stability restricts the industrialization development of perovskite batteries, and rubidium and cesium salts may become key factors for mass production of perovskite.** Due to the excellent optoelectronic performance, enhanced chemical activity, and easy ionization of rubidium and cesium, they can be used as additive materials for the A ions in the ABX3 structure of perovskite batteries, significantly improving the relevant performance of the batteries. Rubidium can increase charge carrier mobility, improve device efficiency, and reduce current-voltage hysteresis effects; cesium can reduce defect density and charge load rate in the perovskite layer, enhancing battery efficiency and long-term stability; the synergistic effect of both can integrate the advantages of inorganic cations, achieving a balanced performance when used in combination. Currently, the main factor restricting the mass production of perovskite is its insufficient stability. The lifespan of crystalline silicon batteries generally reaches over 20 years, while the actual stable lifespan of perovskite batteries is currently only 3-5 years, with rapid efficiency degradation during use. Considering that the addition of rubidium and cesium salts may enhance the stability of perovskite batteries, as industry research and application experiments expand and validate, the addition of rubidium and cesium salts may play a key role in the industrialization development of perovskite batteries. **The penetration rate of the perovskite photovoltaic battery market is expected to increase rapidly.** According to data from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, it is estimated that by 2025, the new production capacity of perovskite batteries in China will be approximately 4GW. According to calculations by Dongxing Securities, the penetration rate of perovskite batteries in the photovoltaic battery market is expected to be around 1.3% in 2025. However, benefiting from the low cost and high efficiency of perovskite batteries, they will continuously replace traditional crystalline silicon batteries. On one hand, in ground photovoltaic scenarios, the penetration rate of perovskite batteries may rise from 1.3% in 2025 to 30% in 2030. Among them, the penetration rate of perovskite batteries in traditional photovoltaic application scenarios such as solar power plants and rooftop distributed photovoltaics is expected to gradually increase; in emerging application scenarios such as building integration, vehicle charging, and wearable devices, the flexibility and high power advantages of perovskite batteries compared to traditional crystalline silicon batteries are more pronounced On the other hand, the development of space photovoltaics may significantly boost the total production capacity of the photovoltaic industry and the penetration rate of perovskite batteries. Space photovoltaics are a core variable in the photovoltaic industry, and perovskite batteries, due to their low cost and high power-to-weight ratio, may be the main development direction for space photovoltaics. **Flexible perovskite battery applications are diverse, and flexible structural features will enhance industry expansion resilience** Flexible perovskite solar cells can achieve breakthrough applications in various fields such as building integration, wearable devices, vehicle power generation, mobile power sources, and portable electronic devices. Through new packaging processes, perovskite modules can withstand 100,000 bends (traditional silicon-based photovoltaics only 300 times) and perfectly adapt to various curved surfaces. At the same time, flexible perovskite batteries exhibit extreme environmental resilience, maintaining an efficiency rate of 92% at low temperatures of -20°C (conventional photovoltaics only 65%), with a degradation rate of <3% per year in humid and hot environments (85°C/85% RH). By 2025, the efficiency of flexible perovskite solar cells is expected to exceed 25%, far higher than other mainstream flexible solar cells (CIGS: 14%–18%; amorphous silicon: 10%–12%). Additionally, since perovskite batteries can still generate electricity efficiently under low light conditions, they are more suitable for indoor applications in wearable devices. In the field of vehicle power generation, perovskite photovoltaic vehicle power generation may enter a stage of popularization. Tesla will release a patent in July 2025, embedding functional films in the vehicle body, including integrated electronic door handle sensing areas, LED light films, and perovskite films. Currently, the Tesla Cyber Cab model has confirmed the adoption of this technology, and it may be applied to more models in the future. By 2024, the demand for perovskite batteries in emerging application scenarios such as wearable devices, vehicle power generation, mobile power sources, and portable electronic devices is expected to account for about 20%. Dongxing Securities believes that as perovskite batteries become mass-produced, their flexible characteristics and high power advantages may drive emerging demand to become the core force behind the growth of perovskite battery demand. **Perovskite batteries may become the mainstream choice in the field of photovoltaic building integration** Perovskite solar panels are lightweight and smooth, capable of being made fully transparent, semi-transparent, or in various colors, and possess excellent flexibility and ductility, allowing them to be used as power-generating glass curtain walls on building surfaces. The flexible characteristics of perovskite battery panels enable seamless integration with building materials and offer advantages such as being lightweight, transparent, and customizable, potentially making them the mainstream choice in the field of photovoltaic building integration. According to Mordor Intelligence, the global BIPV market size may increase from USD 16.66 billion to USD 47.02 billion between 2026 and 2031, with a CAGR of 23.06%; at the same time, as perovskite battery products continue to be updated and upgraded, the application scale and penetration rate of perovskite batteries in BIPV may continue to rise. **The increase in perovskite battery penetration may drive the CAGR of rubidium salt demand to reach 115% over the past five years** According to the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, it is predicted that in the ground photovoltaic market, the new production capacity of perovskite batteries in China may increase from 4GW in 2025 to 161GW in 2030 (with a CAGR of 109% during this period). According to calculations by Dongxing Securities, the corresponding penetration rate in the photovoltaic market may rise from 1.3% to 30% Referring to Musk's photovoltaic plan, Tesla may start building 100GW of ground photovoltaic capacity annually from 2029. Based on the forecast of global perovskite market penetration, Tesla may establish 18GW/30GW of new ground perovskite capacity in 2029/2030. In the current commercial application of perovskite batteries, approximately 20-25 tons of rubidium cesium salt is consumed per GW of perovskite battery. By integrating data such as China's photovoltaic capacity forecast, the global share of China's photovoltaic capacity, Tesla's new ground photovoltaic capacity forecast, global perovskite penetration rate forecast, and the corresponding rubidium salt consumption per unit of perovskite capacity, it is estimated that between 2025 and 2030, the global demand for rubidium salt in ground photovoltaic application scenarios may increase from 37 tons to 1696 tons, with a CAGR of 115% during this period. **Perovskite batteries are the main development direction for space photovoltaics** Perovskite batteries are widely regarded in the industry as the long-term development direction for space photovoltaics due to their higher theoretical efficiency, lighter weight, better flexibility, and lower cost (1/10 of gallium arsenide). Considering the current development stage of perovskite batteries and the estimated verification cycle, 2026-2027 may become the golden period for the industrialization and verification of perovskite batteries. After 2028, perovskite batteries may gradually achieve mass production in the field of space photovoltaics and become the preferred choice. **Space computing centers may drive exponential growth in space photovoltaic demand** In January 2026, Musk announced plans to achieve an annual photovoltaic capacity of 200GW after 2029. Among them, Tesla will lead the construction of 100GW of ground photovoltaic capacity in the United States, while SpaceX will build 100GW of space photovoltaics. In Musk's plan, future space photovoltaics will not only serve as supporting energy for spacecraft but also become the core energy source for space computing centers. On January 30, 2026, SpaceX submitted an application to the Federal Communications Commission to launch up to 1 million Starlink V3 satellites to build an "orbital data center." The solar wing area of a single V3 satellite increased from 22.68 square meters in version 1.5 to 256.94 square meters, with the photovoltaic demand per satellite increasing 11 times compared to version 1.5. Combining Musk's plans for 100GW of space photovoltaics and the "orbital data center" with 1 million satellites, SpaceX may complete a quarter of the launch volume of its 1 million V3 satellites (approximately 250,000 per year) after 2029, corresponding to a space photovoltaic demand of 100GW/year. **The development of space photovoltaics may significantly increase rubidium salt demand** Dongxing Securities pointed out that by combining global commercial aerospace low-orbit satellite launch plans and SpaceX-led space computing plans, the rubidium salt demand corresponding to space photovoltaics can be estimated from both commercial aerospace and space computing perspectives. In terms of commercial aerospace, considering the number of global low-orbit satellite launches and the increasing penetration of perovskite batteries, the global demand for perovskite batteries in commercial aerospace may rise from 0.002GW in 2026 to 0.44GW in 2030; the corresponding rubidium salt demand may increase from 0.02 tons to 3.23 tons, with a CAGR of 279% during this period In terms of space computing power, combined with SpaceX's space photovoltaic and million-satellite launch plan, the demand for perovskite batteries in 2029/2030 may reach 30/50GW, corresponding to a demand for rubidium salt of 220/367 tons. **From 2026 to 2030, the CAGR of rubidium salt demand corresponding to the expansion of the perovskite battery industry may reach 94%** The advantages of perovskite batteries, such as low cost, high efficiency, lightweight, and flexibility, provide significant room for improvement in their penetration rate in the photovoltaic market. At the same time, in emerging application fields such as building integration, wearable devices, mobile power sources, portable electronic devices, vehicle power generation, and space photovoltaics, the demand for perovskite photovoltaics also has continuous growth potential. Based on the forecast of installed capacity of perovskite batteries and corresponding rubidium salt demand in the ground photovoltaic market and space photovoltaic market, the global installed capacity of perovskite batteries may increase from 20GW to 281.7GW from 2026 to 2030, corresponding to global rubidium salt demand increasing from 146.7 tons to 2065.7 tons, with a CAGR of 94% during this period. **The growth elasticity of raw material suppliers is expected to resonate with the expansion of the perovskite battery industry** Given the continuous development of the perovskite battery industry, the global rubidium and cesium salt market is entering a new expansion cycle of structural consumption. The change in rubidium and cesium consumption space, represented by rubidium salt, from 1 to N will significantly optimize the growth elasticity of related enterprises in the industrial chain. Considering the strong rigidity characteristics of the supply side of the global rubidium and cesium industry, the significant rightward shift of the industry demand curve will drive the continuous upward movement of commodity pricing. The monopolistic, scarcity, and pricing power of core production factors in the industry's development will continue to be factored into the growth elasticity and valuation elasticity of companies. **Risk Warning** The research and development of perovskite batteries may fall short of expectations, the development of demand in the photovoltaic industry may not meet expectations, the satellite launch schedule may not meet expectations, the production on the supply side of rubidium salt may not meet expectations, and the price of rubidium and cesium salts may fall unexpectedly ### 相關股票 - [SINOMINE (002738.CN)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/002738.CN.md) - [GMK (300619.CN)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/300619.CN.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [Sinomine in talks with Zimbabwe to resume lithium exports](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279025547.md) - [Space 11 Completes Global Space Advisory Board](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281552725.md) - [Stocks to buy today: Analyst at Kotak Sec bets on ONGC, Emmvee Photovoltaic](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281280130.md) - [SpaceX prepares for record-breaking IPO that could reshape the space sector](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281400071.md) - [KBRA Assigns Preliminary Ratings to ClearLight Nebo Issuer 2026-1, LLC](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281555302.md)