---
title: "Federal Reserve Rate Cut Probabilities Analyzed for 2026"
type: "News"
locale: "zh-HK"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/275219351.md"
description: "The CME FedWatch data indicates a 5.4% chance that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates by the end of 2026. Probabilities for rate cuts include 21.1% for 25 basis points, 32.5% for 50 basis points, 25.9% for 75 basis points, 11.7% for 100 basis points, and 3% for 125 basis points. Additionally, there is a 23.2% probability of a 25 basis point cut at the Fed's next meeting in March."
datetime: "2026-02-08T06:53:34.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/275219351.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275219351.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/275219351.md)
---

> 支持的語言: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/275219351.md) | [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275219351.md)


# Federal Reserve Rate Cut Probabilities Analyzed for 2026

According to CME FedWatch data, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates at all by the end of 2026 stands at 5.4%. According to BlockBeats, there is a 21.1% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut, a 32.5% chance of a 50 basis point reduction, a 25.9% likelihood of a 75 basis point cut, an 11.7% probability of a 100 basis point decrease, and a 3% chance of a 125 basis point reduction. Additionally, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Federal Reserve's next meeting in March is 23.2%.

### 相關股票

- [Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/.DJI.US.md)
- [ISHRS Us Brokers & Sec Exchg (IAI.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IAI.US.md)
- [VG Financial (VFH.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/VFH.US.md)
- [Fidelity MSCI Financials Index (FNCL.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/FNCL.US.md)
- [Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/XLF.US.md)
- [S&P 500 (.SPX.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/.SPX.US.md)

## 相關資訊與研究

- [Justice Dept. Releases First-Ever Corporate Enforcement Policy For Criminal Cases](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/278707715.md)
- [Fed's favorite price gauge shows sticky inflation - and little chance of improvement soon](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279045033.md)
- [T. ROWE PRICE GROUP REPORTS MONTH-END ASSETS UNDER MANAGEMENT FOR FEBRUARY 2026 | TROW Stock News](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/278721651.md)
- [US consumer spending, core PCE inflation firmer in January](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279046082.md)
- [SEC Fines NYSE $9 Mln Over 2023 Trading Disruption](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/278242086.md)