--- title: "The era of CPO has begun! The bull market story of \"AI super stock\" Lumentum is far from over" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/275385315.md" description: "As a leader in optical module technology, Lumentum has attracted an increasing number of financial institutions bullish on its stock price due to its strong quarterly performance and future outlook. The company's stock price has risen 340% in the 2025 bull market, with an increase of over 56% this year. Analyst Jeff Pu pointed out that Lumentum will continue to benefit from the growth of the AI chip market, especially in collaboration with NVIDIA. The latest performance shows that Lumentum's net revenue reached $665.5 million, a year-on-year increase of 65.5%, and it is expected that revenue in the next quarter will reach $780-830 million, demonstrating strong growth momentum" datetime: "2026-02-10T01:49:02.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/275385315.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275385315.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/275385315.md) --- > 支持的語言: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/275385315.md) | [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275385315.md) # The era of CPO has begun! The bull market story of "AI super stock" Lumentum is far from over According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Lumentum (LITE.US), a core participant in the "Google TPU AI computing power chain" and an indispensable supplier of optical module components for the "NVIDIA AI GPU computing power chain," has seen an increasing number of financial institutions bullish on the company's stock price following its strong quarterly performance and future outlook, which is expected to continue the bull market trajectory into 2025. **Lumentum's stock price has surged by 340% over the year, making it an undeniable "super bull stock" in the global stock market focused on AI computing power, with a price increase of over 56% this year.** This U.S.-based leader in optical module technology is considered one of the "strongest beneficiaries" in the ongoing battle between "Google TPU vs. NVIDIA GPU," which may last for years. The strong competition or one side gaining an absolute advantage would be a long-term positive for the optical module theme. Jeff Pu, a senior analyst from GF Securities, stated in a recent research report that Lumentum will continue to benefit from the accelerating trend of co-packaged optical technology (CPO) driven by "AI chip superpower" NVIDIA (NVDA.US). Last week, Lumentum's latest earnings report showed that due to sustained strong demand in the optical circuit switch (OCS) and CPO sectors, **Lumentum not only delivered a revenue and actual profit that exceeded expectations but also provided a guidance for the next quarter with a year-on-year growth of up to 85%, demonstrating its key position in the global AI computing power infrastructure.** The company reported net revenue of $665.5 million for the quarter ending December 27, 2025, a staggering 65.5% year-on-year increase, reaching the high end of the guidance range; **for the next fiscal quarter, Lumentum's management provided guidance that far exceeded market expectations, forecasting revenue to reach $780 million to $830 million, which implies a year-on-year growth of over 85% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of about 22%, indicating sustained strong growth momentum.** In a report to clients, GF Securities analyst Jeff Pu wrote: "At the 2025 GTC conference, NVIDIA launched its CPO-based switch, with Quantum-X set to launch in the second half of 2025 and Spectrum-X planned for the second half of 2026." He stated: "NVIDIA's first-generation scale-out CPO switch, Quantum-X, adopts a pluggable architecture rather than a fully integrated co-packaged optical technology. **For the 2026 GTC, we believe NVIDIA may launch a new generation of CPO switches. We expect this generation to have a performance of 115.2T, and TSMC may dominate the core chips related to co-packaged optical technology (CPO). We anticipate that the supply chain will gradually begin to expand in the second quarter of 2026 and accelerate in the second half of 2026/2027. We have raised our estimates for NVIDIA's scale-out CPO switches, expecting 2k/20k/80k for 2025/2026/2027 respectively.** \*\*” GF Securities analyst Pu stated that Lumentum should benefit from the continuous surge in demand for continuous wave lasers, while another optical module giant from North America, Coherent (COHR.US), is affected at a relatively "neutral" level. "According to the recent earnings conference call, Lumentum emphasized that optical scale-up expansion is a long-term structural opportunity, expected to begin by the end of 2027," analyst Pu added. "**We believe NVIDIA may consider launching CPO/NPO starting in the second half of 2027, initially from the Rubin Ultra architecture, and the interconnect field from rack to rack may actively shift towards CPO technology or NPO-based optical interconnects. We believe TSMC's co-packaged optics (CPO) technology scale-up solution has entered the sampling stage, but the readiness for mass production remains uncertain, indicating that the debate between NPO and CPO will continue**." Last week, Lumentum's earnings report showed that the company is still in the early stages in both OCS and CPO fields, with significant growth potential as capacity ramps up and orders are delivered. Coupled with stable growth demand from traditional telecommunications and industrial manufacturing markets, Lumentum has basically established a strong growth tone for the year and is expected to continue benefiting from the wave of AI infrastructure construction. **The company's management stated that in the CPO business, they have already secured several hundred million dollars in incremental orders this quarter, with products to be delivered in the first half of the 2027 calendar year.** Lumentum CEO Michael Hurlston bluntly stated, "We are at the starting line of two huge opportunities: optical circuit switches (OCS) and co-packaged optics (CPO)." He emphasized that with the explosive growth in bandwidth and energy efficiency requirements from AI data centers, Lumentum is entering its strongest growth cycle in history. Wall Street financial giant Morgan Stanley stated after Lumentum's earnings announcement that the most exciting aspect of Lumentum's growth cycle is undoubtedly the company's substantial progress in the emerging CPO market. Furthermore, **based on strong fundamental expectations, Morgan Stanley significantly raised Lumentum's future earnings forecasts, with Morgan Stanley analysts expecting Lumentum's earnings compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to reach an astonishing 158% from fiscal year 2025 to fiscal year 2027**. ## Lumentum vs Coherent **Lumentum is more like a manufacturer of key components for optical communication (lasers, optical device suppliers), and it also ships some optical module products and subsystems,** **but its core technological advantage lies in its ability to exclusively build the most fundamental light sources and high-speed device platforms, which are extensively integrated into various optical modules and optical communication systems in large AI data centers.** Coherent, on the other hand, leans more towards being a vertically integrated manufacturer "from raw materials to final modules," producing not only lasers and photonic devices but also possessing stronger capabilities in complete optical module supply and material production, thus having an advantage in certain highly integrated high-speed module markets Lumentum's core is the design and manufacture of key components for optical communication and photonic products, mainly including lasers, optical transceivers, modulators, optical amplifiers, wavelength management devices, and other basic components, which are the "building blocks" of optical modules and optoelectronic systems. Its product line includes optical communication components for data centers and cloud networks, as well as laser products for industrial, 3D sensing, and manufacturing applications. **Lumentum's lasers (such as EML, CW lasers, DML, etc.) are the core light source components in optical modules and silicon photonic interconnects, and these light sources are integrated into the final products of many OEM optical modules. Therefore, Lumentum's core competitiveness lies in light sources and key photonic components—its core lasers are the top priority suppliers in the high-performance network architecture of Google TPU and NVIDIA GPU computing power supply chains, which is distinctly different from traditional companies like Coherent that only produce complete modules.** Industry commentary often views Coherent as a vertically integrated supplier of optical communication and laser platforms with deeper integration: it has its own InP/GaAs wafer manufacturing capabilities and can integrate upstream optical chips, downstream packaging, and modules into final optical module products. Therefore, it has a stronger supply capability of "from parts to finished products" in some high-speed modules (such as complex modules like 800G / 1.6T), with its core being the supply capability of complete optical modules. ## Lumentum is truly reaping the benefits of AI infrastructure! Whether it is NVIDIA GPU or Google TPU technology routes, it can continue the bullish trajectory. Why has Lumentum's stock price trend been "extremely bullish" since 2025? **The main logic is that Lumentum can benefit from both the Google TPU AI computing power supply chain and the NVIDIA-led AI GPU computing power supply chain.** In AI superclusters like TPU and GPU computing power groups, there is a core commonality: **the need for extremely high bandwidth, extremely low latency, and extremely high energy efficiency for internal interconnects in data centers. Traditional copper cables or electronic switching solutions cannot meet the demand due to explosive growth in power consumption and thermal loss when scaled to thousands or even tens of thousands of chips; optical interconnect technology (including co-packaged optical CPO, silicon photonic switches, optical circuit switching OCS) can replace electrical signals with optical signals, significantly improving bandwidth density and energy efficiency in large-scale AI training/inference networks, while reducing latency and power consumption. This demand for higher optical interconnect capacity is common to both GPU and TPU clusters.** For example, NVIDIA-led silicon photonic network switches like Spectrum‑X/Quantum‑X clearly integrate laser and photonic technology to enhance power efficiency and network capacity, and Lumentum's high-performance lasers and optical components are an indispensable part of these switches. Google has already integrated OCS (optical circuit switch) clusters on a large scale into its Jupiter/AI data center network architecture to support TPU AI systems and large-scale training/inference systems. Lumentum's R300/R64 OCS products are specifically aimed at "large-scale cloud computing + AI/ML data center networks": establishing optical connections directly between endpoints using MEMS optical paths By bypassing intermediate electrical switching and OEO conversion, it focuses on high-end ports, low latency, and low power consumption.\*\* From the perspective of AI data center technology, both NVIDIA InfiniBand and Google's OCS are deeply exploring the CPO optical era (where photonic components are co-packaged near switches/ASICs to reduce latency and power consumption), as well as OCS (which uses optical switching to replace electronic forwarding to reduce energy consumption and latency). Both require a large number of high-performance light sources, lasers, optical switches, and high-density optical interconnect modules to achieve the generation, transmission, and switching of optical signals. **Lumentum has deep technical accumulation in these optoelectronic components (including efficient lasers and exclusive optical modules supporting OCS/CPO), making it a foundational supplier for the optical layer of multiple AI high-performance network architectures.** From the perspective of medium to long-term technological evolution, AI large-scale training (whether large-scale GPU factories or TPU supercomputers) faces similar bottlenecks: network wiring costs, scalability of system interconnections, energy efficiency, and bandwidth requirements. Industry analysis indicates that optical circuit switching (OCS) and CPO and other optical interconnect technologies are moving from a small number of experiments to large-scale deployment and may become standard infrastructure for AI data centers. Lumentum's long-term technical accumulation in these cutting-edge optical communication hardware (efficient lasers, optical switching devices, module design, etc.) enables it to provide key optical components under different AI network architectures (such as NVIDIA InfiniBand + Spectrum-X/Ethernet, or Google's optical circuit switching OCS), thus benefiting from the expansion and upgrade of these two computing power paths ### 相關股票 - [NVIDIA (NVDA.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/NVDA.US.md) - [Lumentum (LITE.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/LITE.US.md) - [GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF (NVDL.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/NVDL.US.md) - [T-Rex 2X Long NVIDIA Daily Target ETF (NVDX.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/NVDX.US.md) - [YieldMax NVDA Option Income Strategy ETF (NVDY.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/NVDY.US.md) - [Direxion Daily NVDA Bull 2X Shares (NVDU.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/NVDU.US.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [MRA Advisory Group Cuts Position in Lumentum Holdings Inc. $LITE](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281632303.md) - [Nvidia’s $2 Billion Investment in Marvell: What Kind of Company Is Marvell?](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281372238.md) - [The Next Big AI Winner Might Not Be a Tech Company](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281689441.md) - [A key pillar of the bull case for stocks could be set to crumble, famed strategist warns](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281624921.md) - [Cattle Look to Wednesday After Tuesday Rally](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281369105.md)