--- title: "國債的艾略特波浪分析：有望迎來上漲" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/275696771.md" description: "國債期貨有望迎來一波顯著的反彈，可能持續數月。分析表明，自 2020 年以來的下行趨勢可能已經結束，五浪模式顯示在 82.00 附近存在支撐。如果價格保持在 2023 年低點 82.42 之上，反彈可能會測試 94.60 到 95.20 之間的阻力位，目標更高可達 118.90。相反，如果跌破 82.42，可能會導致進一步下跌，支撐位在 75.40，甚至可能降至 65.10 或 55.10" datetime: "2026-02-12T03:57:42.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/275696771.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275696771.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/275696771.md) --- # 國債的艾略特波浪分析：有望迎來上漲 Treasury bond futures appear ready for a sizeable bounce that could persist for several months or longer. Here we show how the same move might appear in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:TLT). Although we continue to believe the major high in bonds was set in 2020, the downward pattern since that time might be complete. It is possible to count a five-wave (i)-(ii)-(iii)-(iv)-(v) impulsive move into the TLT support zone near 82.00. If price remains above the 2023 low of 82.42, then a rally should take it to test initial resistance near 94.60 – 95.20, as drawn with the gray path. Moving above that level would serve as initial confirmation of the bounce scenario and would allow for a test of the higher areas shown: 102.50, 106.70 – 107.70, and our preferred upward target at 114.40. A stretch target for the move awaits near 118.90. The most prominent alternative scenario is that bonds haven’t yet found a low. As shown with the red path, a break beneath 82.42 would allow for a run to the next support at 75.40 and might allow tests of lower supports. If price declines, then 65.10 appears the most likely area for the downward move to finish, but even a test of 55.10 would be possible. You can join us every day at Trading On The Mark for more charts and livestreamed discussions of intraday markets. ### 相關股票 - [TBT.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/TBT.US.md) - [SHV.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SHV.US.md) - [TLT.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/TLT.US.md) - [TMV.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/TMV.US.md) - [BND.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/BND.US.md) - [TMF.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/TMF.US.md) - [AGG.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/AGG.US.md) - [TBF.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/TBF.US.md) - [IEF.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IEF.US.md) - [GOVT.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/GOVT.US.md) - [SHY.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SHY.US.md) - [TYA.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/TYA.US.md) - [BIL.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/BIL.US.md) - [UBT.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/UBT.US.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [2 月美國淨資本流入 1845 億美元](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/282896398.md) - [美債賣不動了？外國投資者需求驟降 油價飆升或是 “幕後黑手”](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/282103399.md) - [美債收益率隨油價上漲，美聯儲在通脹與增長風險間權衡](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/283044811.md) - [外國投資者在 2 月將美國國債持倉推升至歷史高位](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/282906140.md)