--- title: "Where is the US dollar headed? The market holds its breath waiting for the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, and the interest rate cut window in June may open" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/276089866.md" description: "The market is awaiting the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, with expectations of a rate cut in June. Christina Clifton, a foreign exchange strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, stated that the market is optimistic about the U.S. economy, anticipating two rate cuts, with a roughly 50% chance of a third cut. The U.S. dollar index remained flat, while the euro and pound slightly declined, and the yen saw a slight increase. The Federal Reserve will release the meeting minutes on Wednesday, with the market paying attention to inflation data from other countries" datetime: "2026-02-17T05:53:03.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/276089866.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276089866.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/276089866.md) --- > 支持的語言: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/276089866.md) | [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276089866.md) # Where is the US dollar headed? The market holds its breath waiting for the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, and the interest rate cut window in June may open According to Zhitong Finance APP, most Asian markets are closed for the Lunar New Year holiday, and the U.S. has just concluded Presidents' Day, resulting in light trading. Important economic events are expected later this week, including the minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting and preliminary data on U.S. gross domestic product. The market is awaiting signals regarding when the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates, which are expected to be released later this week. "We are quite optimistic about the U.S. economy," said Christina Clifton, senior foreign exchange strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. "The market currently expects a high likelihood of a rate cut in June, which is also our view. However, where we differ from the market is that we expect another rate cut to follow in July." She added, "We believe that the most important driver of the dollar's performance in 2026 will be the narrative of American exceptionalism." The dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of currencies, remained largely unchanged at 97.12, after rising 0.2% in the previous trading session. The euro fell 0.06% to $1.1843. The yen rose 0.15% to 153.28 yen per dollar. The pound dropped 0.07% to $1.3616. Data from last Friday showed that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January rose less than expected, providing greater room for the Federal Reserve to further ease policy this year. Currency market traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 62 basis points for the remainder of the year, which implies two rate cuts of 25 basis points each, with a roughly 50% probability of a third cut. The next rate cut is likely in June, with the market assigning an 80% probability to a 25 basis point cut. The Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee will release the minutes from its January meeting on Wednesday local time. Other key data this week includes inflation data from the UK, Canada, and Japan, as well as preliminary global business activity data on Friday. Additionally, the yen recovered some of its losses from the previous day, as disappointing Japanese economic data raised market expectations for increased government stimulus. The Australian dollar edged lower after the Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes from its February meeting. On Monday, the recent rise of the yen stalled, with official data showing that Japan's economy saw almost no growth in the last quarter, achieving only a 0.2% annualized increase. The Australian dollar fell 0.07% to $0.7064. The New Zealand dollar dropped 0.08% to $0.6026, with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand holding a policy meeting on Wednesday, where the market widely expects it to keep interest rates unchanged. The Reserve Bank of Australia believes that if there is no rate hike this month as actually occurred, inflation will remain persistently high, and it is currently uncertain whether further tightening of policy is needed. The minutes from last month's board meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia indicated that members were concerned that the risks to its inflation and employment targets had "significantly shifted." In the cryptocurrency space, Bitcoin rose 0.05% to $68,881.72, while Ethereum remained flat at $1,999.11 ### 相關股票 - [Wtree Bbg Usd Bull (USDU.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/USDU.US.md) - [Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/UUP.US.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [Cotton Rallying on Tuesday Morning](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281203024.md) - [LIVE MARKETS-Does a Good Friday jobs report = a rocky ride on Monday?](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281558023.md) - [BOK gov nominee Shin: Korean won liquidity is good](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281097264.md) - [FUJIFILM Holdings Corporation announces an Equity Buyback for 13,000,000 shares, representing 1.08% for ¥30,000 million.](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281042703.md) - [Bok Gov Nominee Shin: The Current Level of Korean Won Is Not That Meaningful](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281094929.md)