---
title: "ZAWYA-NEWS: Aramco Q4 2025 profit forecast at $25bln, rising YoY but easing QoQ"
type: "News"
locale: "zh-HK"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/276418233.md"
description: "Saudi Aramco's Q4 2025 net profit is forecasted at 91.9 billion SAR ($24.50 billion), a 5.9% YoY increase but a 5.5% QoQ decline, attributed to a 7.4% drop in crude oil prices. Revenue is expected to decrease by 5.1% YoY to SAR 406.9 billion. For 2026, revenue is projected to rise 0.5% YoY to SAR 1.7 trillion, with net income remaining flat at SAR 371 billion. AlJazira Capital rates Aramco stock as “Overweight” with a target price of SAR 29.6 per share. Full-year results will be published on March 10."
datetime: "2026-02-20T06:47:19.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/276418233.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276418233.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/276418233.md)
---

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# ZAWYA-NEWS: Aramco Q4 2025 profit forecast at $25bln, rising YoY but easing QoQ

**Staff Writer**

Saudi Aramco’s net profit after minority interest is expected to rise by 5.9% year-on-year (YoY), but fall 5.5% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to 91.9 billion Saudi riyals ($24.50 billion) in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to AlJazira Capital.

The net profit is expected to see a 9.2% decline compared to the adjusted net profit reported in Q3 2025.

The sequential decline in adjusted net income is forecast to be due to crude oil prices falling 7.4% QoQ, partly offset by increased production by 4.3%, or 400,000 barrels per day (bpd), QoQ.

Revenue is estimated at SAR 406.9 billion, down 5.1% YoY and 2.7% QoQ. The upstream revenue is expected to decrease by 7.5% QoQ. However, downstream revenue is likely to rise 1% QoQ with improvement in refining margins, although chemical margins are likely to be under pressure.

The Saudi-listed oil giant's revenue in 2026 is projected to increase marginally by 0.5% YoY to SAR 1.7 trillion, while net income is expected to remain broadly flat at SAR 371 billion.

“Our 2026 estimates are based on an average oil price assumption of $62.4 per barrel, representing an 8% YoY decline,” the brokerage said.

Total hydrocarbon production is anticipated to increase to 13.8 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mmboed) in 2026, including crude output of 10.1 million bpd (+6.7% YoY), partially mitigating the impact on earnings.

AlJazira Capital has assigned an “Overweight” rating to Aramco stock, with a target price set at SAR 29.6 per share.

Saudi Aramco will publish its full-year 2025 results on March 10.

(Editing by Seban Scaria seban.scaria@lseg.com)

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. The content does not provide tax, legal or investment advice or opinion regarding the suitability, value or profitability of any particular security, portfolio or investment strategy. Read our full disclaimer policy here.

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