--- title: "The U.S. Supreme Court ruling reshapes market pricing logic! The China-India export chain becomes the biggest winner as Hong Kong stocks welcome a moment of takeoff" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/276578966.md" description: "The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Trump's tariff policy is illegal, resulting in countries like China and India becoming the biggest winners. Economists predict that the average tariff rate in Asia will drop from 20% to 17%, while the average effective tariff rate in the U.S. will reach its lowest level. Although Trump plans to implement a 15% global tax rate, this may only be temporary, as existing high tariffs may still be maintained or adjusted through other provisions" datetime: "2026-02-23T08:51:03.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/276578966.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276578966.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/276578966.md) --- > 支持的語言: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/276578966.md) | [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276578966.md) # The U.S. Supreme Court ruling reshapes market pricing logic! The China-India export chain becomes the biggest winner as Hong Kong stocks welcome a moment of takeoff According to the Zhitong Finance APP, as the tariff policy of Trump and the fate of the U.S. Treasury's tax revenue rapidly reversed, those large economies that had long suffered the most from the global tariff policies led by U.S. President Donald Trump over the past year have become the biggest winners after the U.S. Supreme Court decided to overturn its emergency tariff policy. The latest estimates from economists indicate that the **weighted average tariff rate in Asia will drop from 20% to 17%, and the overall "average effective tariff rate" calculated by the U.S. government for all imports/all trading partners has already fallen to the lowest level since the announcement of the "Liberation Day" tariffs in April.** After the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Trump's imposition of tariffs globally under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) was illegal, large economies such as China, India, and Brazil now face lower tariff rates for shipments to their largest export destination—the United States. Although Trump soon announced plans to implement a 15% global tariff, the latest estimates from the Bloomberg Economics team show that **this would mean the global average effective tariff rate would drop from around 17% to just about 12%—the lowest level since the Trump administration announced the global "Liberation Day" tariffs in April 2025.** For all Asian economies, a research report from the economist team at Wall Street financial giant Morgan Stanley shows that **the weighted average tariff rate will decrease from 20% to 17%, with the average tariff rate on Chinese goods significantly dropping from 32% to 24%. However, given that the Trump administration is seeking to rebuild its tariff system through industry-specific and economy-specific tariff frameworks, this relief may only be temporary, which also means that significantly higher existing tariffs above 10% on countries or regions like China may still be maintained or adjusted through other specific provisions.** Recently, after announcing the 15% global tariff, Trump stated that he would continue to retain the existing import tariffs under the frameworks of Section 301 and Section 232, and hinted at initiating more trade investigations. According to the latest fact sheet released by the White House, Trump has instructed the U.S. Trade Representative's Office to begin investigations under his Section 301 authority. Nevertheless, "the peak period of uncertainty regarding tariffs and global trade tensions is basically over," wrote the economist team led by Chetan Ahya from Morgan Stanley in a report. Overall, after the Supreme Court ruled that Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose "emergency tariffs" was illegal, U.S. Customs has initiated arrangements to stop the enforcement of related IEEPA tariff codes, **which will undoubtedly allow a group of export-oriented economies that were previously subjected to higher and more punitive rates to see a reduction in their marginal tax burden for shipments to the U.S. in the short term. Economists specifically pointed out China, India, and Brazil because: after the IEEPA tariffs were revoked, combined with Trump's subsequent introduction of a new uniform tariff rate under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 (the latest rate being 15%), economists estimate that the average effective tariff rate in the U.S. could significantly decline to around 12%.** "The uncertainty of global trade has once again become a concern for investors, **which is bad news for U.S. assets**. The decline of the dollar may continue, and as investors factor this impact into stock prices, the disadvantage of the S&P 500 index relative to other indices, especially compared to the Asia-Pacific index, will further intensify," said Garfield Reynolds, a senior analyst at MLIV Asia Markets. "**In terms of tariffs, Asia and emerging markets may be the biggest beneficiaries of this temporary reduction.**" ## Supreme Court Ruling and Trump's Tariff Policy "Rebounding" Ignite Market Repricing—U.S. Assets Weaken, Hong Kong Stock Market Strengthens in Response The latest announcement of a 15% comprehensive tariff by the Trump administration has effectively reset the trade competition and economic growth landscape faced by U.S. trading partners. **For large export-oriented economies like China, the U.S. Supreme Court has also canceled tariffs of up to 10% on fentanyl from China, meaning their exports now face lower punitive tax rates. The core losers include Western developed economies such as the UK and Australia, or long-time U.S. allies, which had negotiated lower tax rates of around 10% under the globally initiated "reciprocal" tariff framework on Liberation Day.** On Monday, the U.S. dollar index and S&P 500 index futures showed slight declines, with Nasdaq index futures dropping over 1%, **mainly due to trade policy uncertainty dampening market optimism for U.S. assets, with the rhetoric of "selling America" and the collapse of "American exceptionalism" resurfacing. As the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and fiscal policies led by the Trump administration causes some large investors to withdraw from the U.S. market, calls for the collapse of "American exceptionalism" are growing stronger, compounded by the high valuations and excessive market concentration in the U.S. stock market**. Additionally, a weak dollar benefits emerging market debt repayment and yield performance, prompting funds to increasingly seek diversified allocations. ![1771836107(1).png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260223/1771836145660538.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) **Large listed companies in the Hong Kong stock market, which have long faced tariff pressures, are now relieved, as their fundamental growth logic experiences scenario recovery, reflecting that amidst the fluctuations of the dollar and U.S. stocks, the stock prices of Chinese enterprises in Hong Kong have significantly risen, especially the performance of export chains and technology-driven growth stocks in the Hong Kong stock market—such as technology stocks closely related to AI, which have seen substantial price increases.** As of the close of the Hong Kong stock market on Monday, the Hang Seng Tech Index, which includes leaders in China's AI computing power industry such as Alibaba, Tencent, and SMIC, surged over 3%, while the A-share market continued to be closed for the Spring Festival holiday. As the U.S. financial market falls into the "AI panic trading that disrupts everything," with investors heavily selling SaaS software companies, Chinese investors are instead aggressively buying AI-related concept stocks This starkly different market sentiment reflects a fundamental divergence between investors in the two regions regarding cutting-edge AI technology: **the U.S. market is concerned about the disruption of existing business models, while Chinese investors are focusing on economic growth opportunities following the Supreme Court's announcement that Trump's reciprocal tariffs were illegal, as well as the cost-reduction potential for enterprises brought about by the massive scale of the AI application market and the accelerated penetration of open-source AI large models in China.** ![1771836161(1).png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260223/1771836171435419.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) U.S. senior officials are urging trade partners, including the UK, Australia, the EU, and Japan, to adhere to the tariff rates and large-scale investment commitments made during previous trade negotiations. They are also seeking to extend the one-year ceasefire arrangement in the trade war with China, with U.S. President Trump planning to visit Beijing soon. “We want to ensure that China is fulfilling its part of the trade agreement,” U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated on Fox News Sunday. “This means they will continue to purchase the U.S. products they said they would buy.” **Canada and Mexico have also faced tariffs related to fentanyl, so as these tariffs are no longer applicable, they benefit as well.** Senior economists Nicole Gorton-Caratelli, Chris Kennedy, and Maeva Cousin from Bloomberg Economics wrote in a report that if the exemptions under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) continue to be maintained, they will be in a “very favorable position” together. **The newly announced 15% tariff rate puts countries that previously faced a 10% tariff rate in a relatively worse trade position compared to large Asian economies like China and India, with Australia and the UK falling into this category. Meanwhile, countries that previously enjoyed a competitive 15% tariff rate on exports to the U.S.—such as Japan—have now found this advantage stripped away.** Despite the added layer of uncertainty from the U.S. Supreme Court ruling, analysts point out that the strong resilience exhibited by global trade over the past year, along with relatively limited changes in overall average tariff rates, suggests that the short-term impact may be somewhat constrained. A team of economists from another Wall Street financial giant, Goldman Sachs, has recently estimated that the combination of the Supreme Court ruling and the newly announced Section 122 tariff will reduce the increase in effective tariff rates since early 2025 from just over 10 percentage points to 9 percentage points "Imports from countries that will experience significant tariff reductions due to the latest policy changes are likely to rebound sharply in the coming months," wrote economists at Goldman Sachs. "However, the scale of the impact on GDP should largely be offset by the following factors: inventory accumulation and corresponding increases in consumer spending, reductions in imports corresponding to trade rerouted through other countries, and slight declines in imports from countries with rising tariff rates." ## China closely monitors Trump's new trade measures after the Supreme Court overturns IEEPA tariffs Following the U.S. Supreme Court's rejection of Trump's emergency tariffs, countries including China, India, and Brazil have significantly lowered the tariff rates on goods shipped to the United States. China has stated that it is closely monitoring the Trump administration's plans to advance its tariff system through other trade tools—this is the first official statement from China since the Supreme Court ruled that the president's international emergency tariffs were invalid. A spokesperson for China's Ministry of Commerce said on Monday that Beijing is currently conducting a comprehensive assessment of the impact of the ruling. "We also note that the U.S. side is preparing alternative measures, such as trade investigations, in an attempt to continue imposing tariffs on trade partners. China will closely monitor these developments and firmly safeguard its own interests," the spokesperson said in a statement. China's first official comment on the ruling came days after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned President Trump's comprehensive global tariffs. Trump subsequently stated that he would reimplement a 15% global tariff and promised to initiate new trade investigations in an attempt to maintain the previous overall tariff rate. **A key index measuring Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong rose as much as 2.6% in early trading on Monday, while the broader Hang Seng Index closed up 2.53%. As shown, despite Trump's introduction of new tariffs, Bloomberg Economics estimates that this will mean an average effective tariff rate of about 12%—the lowest level since the introduction of its "Liberation Day" tariffs in April.** Previously, investigations under Section 301 and Section 232 had been used to impose tariffs on Chinese exports, automobiles, and metals. These alternative legal authorizations may allow the White House to implement more import taxes even after the ruling. Nevertheless, for China, the Supreme Court also helped eliminate the 10% tariff on fentanyl, resulting in lower punitive rates on its exports. After the Supreme Court ruled that multiple tariffs imposed by Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were illegal, U.S. Customs has initiated arrangements to stop collecting the relevant tariff codes; Trump then introduced a temporary unified global tax rate under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 (currently proposed at 15% and subject to a 150-day limit), **effectively replacing the previously higher and more varied "emergency tariff system" with a "lower and more uniform" framework. Therefore, those economies that were previously hit hardest by IEEPA tariffs, with the highest rates, have become "the biggest beneficiaries" in relative terms, such as China and India.** The overall weighted average tariff level in Asia has been lowered (Morgan Stanley's estimate: from about 20% to about 17%, while the average tariff rate on Chinese goods is expected to decrease from about 32% to about 24%). **In addition, China also benefits from the simultaneous overturning of certain "fentanyl-related surcharges" by the courts, which reduces the marginal penalties faced by its exports to the U.S.; under this new framework of "baseline lowering + convergence of differences," China, India (and Brazil, etc.) are naturally more likely to be classified as winners.** However, expanding the conclusion to say that "the entire Asia is the biggest winner" would be an oversimplification: the unified 15% baseline would push some allies (such as the UK and Australia) that previously discussed a 10% low tax rate into a worse position; while countries (such as Japan and South Korea) that previously enjoyed "relatively competitive tax rates" under the old system will also find their trade export advantages diminished ## 相關資訊與研究 - [Trump: We don't need anything from anyone but it's appropriate](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279822574.md) - [Hegseth: Will be Trump's choice to say we've achieved what we needed for security](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279795151.md) - [Trump Slams NATO as ‘Cowards’ Over Iran War Stance](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279961858.md) - [Trump to hold news conference Monday prior to Kennedy Center board meeting](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279284985.md) - [Trump: War will last as long as necessary](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279098727.md)