--- title: "With inflation meeting targets and exports providing support, the Bank of Korea is expected to maintain its interest rate this week while assessing financial risks in the real estate sector" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/276844563.md" description: "The Bank of Korea is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 2.5% this week, as inflationary pressures are mild and chip exports are stable. Economists predict that the central bank will raise its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 2%. Despite financial stability risks, policy committee members are cautious about further easing. In January, the consumer price index rose by 2% year-on-year, with the core inflation rate stable at 2%. Economic growth is showing divergence, with strong demand for semiconductors, but weak growth in other sectors" datetime: "2026-02-25T06:53:03.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/276844563.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276844563.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/276844563.md) --- > 支持的語言: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/276844563.md) | [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276844563.md) # With inflation meeting targets and exports providing support, the Bank of Korea is expected to maintain its interest rate this week while assessing financial risks in the real estate sector According to Zhitong Finance APP, due to moderate inflationary pressures and stable chip exports, the Bank of Korea is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate this week, allowing policymakers to assess financial stability risks related to an overheated real estate market. A survey shows that 22 economists unanimously predict that the Bank of Korea will keep the 7-day repurchase rate unchanged at 2.5% on Thursday. At the January meeting, the policy committee unanimously decided to maintain the interest rate and removed previous wording that suggested a possible further rate cut, marking a shift in policy stance to neutral. The central bank will also release its latest economic growth and inflation forecasts. Strong semiconductor export data supports economists' expectations that the central bank may raise its GDP growth forecast for 2026 from 1.8% to 2%. Meanwhile, the inflation forecast is expected to remain around the central bank's target of 2%. ![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260225/1772001777564906.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) The minutes from the January 15 meeting show that one committee member still believes there is room for further policy easing once the risks associated with the depreciation of the won and high housing prices subside, given the backdrop of weak domestic demand and a persistent negative output gap. However, the other committee members emphasized financial stability risks, warning that easing policies could exacerbate financial imbalances and exchange rate volatility. Recent economic data shows that there is not a strong urgency for the central bank to adjust its policies. The consumer price index in January rose by 2% year-on-year, slowing from 2.3% in December of last year. The core inflation rate also remained stable at 2%, in line with the central bank's target. Although officials remain vigilant about exchange rate fluctuations and food price risks, current inflation does not impose a hard constraint on policy. The trend in economic growth also shows divergence. Early data indicates that semiconductor demand remains strong, driven by ongoing investments in artificial intelligence (AI) and data centers, with exports continuing to grow in February. Jeeho Yoon, an economist at BNP Paribas, noted in a report: "We believe that the Bank of Korea's policy statement will be 'balanced in tone' while hinting at upside risks to growth and inflation. Currently, there is no urgent necessity to adjust the policy interest rate." However, outside the chip industry, growth momentum is lacking in other sectors. Domestic demand remains weak, and external risks persist. Uncertainty in U.S. trade policy has resurfaced following the U.S. Supreme Court's rejection of the Trump administration's reciprocal tariff policy last week. Although South Korea stated that the trade agreement reached with the U.S. remains valid, the U.S. government is preparing to initiate a series of new national security investigations under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, paving the way for Trump to implement new tariffs. Even before the court ruling, Trump had threatened to restore a 25% tariff on South Korean goods, citing South Korea's failure to fulfill investment commitments in last year's trade agreement. Although South Korean government officials have attempted to downplay the risks during ongoing negotiations, the renewed trade friction has made the policy outlook more cautious. The real estate market constitutes another constraining factor. Data from the Korea Real Estate Board shows that apartment prices in Seoul have risen for 55 consecutive weeks, although the recent growth has slowed. The central bank's survey indicates that the consumer price expectation index for housing fell to a three-and-a-half-year low in February The South Korean government plans to accelerate the construction of approximately 60,000 housing units in the Seoul metropolitan area as early as 2027, as part of a commitment to build about 1.35 million housing units nationwide by 2030. However, it will still take time for supply-side measures to take effect. The central bank has repeatedly warned that a loose financial environment could reignite borrowing demand and exacerbate household debt issues. The minutes from the January meeting indicate that loan growth has been controlled under stricter regulations, but strong housing price expectations in the capital region may continue to exert upward pressure on leverage. The external environment also supports a cautious stance. After three consecutive interest rate cuts, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in January, citing a stabilizing labor market. However, the minutes reveal divisions among U.S. policymakers, with some believing that if inflation persists, interest rates may need to remain elevated for a longer period. Given the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate path on interest rate differentials and the Korean won's movements, the Bank of Korea is likely to remain highly sensitive to it. Overall, stable inflation, strong semiconductor exports, and ongoing financial stability risks have placed the Bank of Korea in a wait-and-see mode—this stance is unlikely to change unless there is a significant economic slowdown or renewed price pressures ### 相關股票 - [TRMSCIKOREA (02848.HK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/02848.HK.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [14:19 ETTexas Realtors anuncia los ganadores de los Premios Inmobiliarios de Texas para el 2025](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279980179.md) - [SiS International Lifts Revenue in 2025 but Shareholder Profit Declines on Property and Tax Hits](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279983166.md) - [Green Energy announces disposal of real estate at EUR565,000, others](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279968259.md) - [18:12 ETCRE Finance Council Announces Planned Retirement of President & CEO Lisa Pendergast](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279853674.md) - [Correction to Canada Inflation Article](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279273650.md)