--- title: "Strong earnings reports struggle to support U.S. stocks as AI and credit concerns become upward resistance" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/276891837.md" description: "U.S. corporate earnings grew by 13% in the fourth quarter, exceeding expectations by 6 percentage points, boosting investor optimism. However, despite strong earnings reports, the S&P 500 index fell by 1.7% during the earnings season, marking its worst performance in the past 10 quarters. Market bets on artificial intelligence and robust consumer spending have kept stock prices high, but uncertainty and geopolitical risks have led investors to turn to safer investments. Analysts point out that the market may be in a \"buy the rumor, sell the news\" phase" datetime: "2026-02-25T13:06:58.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/276891837.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276891837.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/276891837.md) --- > 支持的語言: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/276891837.md) | [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/276891837.md) # Strong earnings reports struggle to support U.S. stocks as AI and credit concerns become upward resistance The Zhitong Finance APP noticed that the U.S. corporate sector has just delivered the strongest earnings season in memory, but if one only looks at stock market performance, investors may find it hard to perceive this. The profits of S&P 500 constituent companies grew by 13% in the fourth quarter, nearly 6 percentage points higher than expected. At the same time, these companies also showed an optimistic outlook for the coming year. According to Jefferies, the ratio of companies in the Russell 3000 index that raised their earnings guidance to those that lowered it is 4:1—this level was last seen after the end of a recession or after the 2018 tax reform. However, during the six weeks following the earnings reports from JPMorgan and Walmart, the S&P 500 index fell by 1.7%—matching the worst performance during an earnings season in the past 10 quarters. ![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260225/1772024263187453.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) Despite strong earnings, the S&P 500 index still performed poorly. Part of the problem lies in the position of the stock market at the start of the earnings season—due to market bets on artificial intelligence and signs of robust consumer spending, stock prices were generally at historical highs. But more concerning is the uncertainty that has left investors bewildered in recent weeks. What was once a synchronized, all-around rise in AI trading has evolved into a game of finding winners and losers, and then shifted again to what is termed "panic trading"—rapid repricing of sectors deemed vulnerable to the impact of AI applications. At the same time, the possibility of a U.S. invasion of Iran and its impact on the global energy market has forced some investors to turn to safer bets. The troubles at Blue Owl Capital Inc. have also raised concerns about private credit companies in the market. “Perhaps we are in an era of 'buy the rumor, sell the fact' in the market, where the past three years of the AI and 'Big Seven' bull market have pushed market expectations to a frenzied level,” said Michael Bailey, research director at Fulton Breakefield Broenniman, when discussing the disconnect between earnings success and market trends. “In other words, delivering earnings that 'exceed expectations and raise guidance' is now merely the entry threshold, rather than a reason to celebrate.” Samir Samana, head of global equities and real assets at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, stated that while earnings are solid, the uncertainties surrounding factors like AI and private credit have “depressed” the valuations investors are willing to pay for sectors like software and fintech. He added that this has led to a “sideways” trend in the S&P 500 index. While other sectors, including industrials and energy, have received higher valuations due to greater certainty and solid performance, Samana pointed out that these areas do not have a large weight in the index. Concerns about the disruptive nature of AI materialized on Monday. A bearish report released by a company called Citrini Research, combined with warnings from Nassim Taleb, triggered an outbreak of “panic trading.” IBM has become a victim of the sell-off, recording its largest single-day drop in over 25 years. "Investors are concerned about the future impact of AI, whether from the capital expenditure pressures of hyperscale cloud service providers or the potential disruption to software companies and other industries," said Tom Hancock of GMO. "These concerns are not reflected in this quarter's financial reports (and may not be reflected this year), leading to a certain degree of disconnection between stock price returns and current fundamentals." The uncertainty of tariffs is another factor investors must consider. The Supreme Court's overturning of Trump's comprehensive global tariff plan sparked cheers among market participants, but the subsequent commitment to impose new import taxes dampened that optimism. Despite the need for traders to consider multiple factors, the market remains confident that the fundamentals of U.S. companies will ultimately prevail. Traders may just need to wait a while. Samana explained, "Investors need time to figure out the scope and pace of AI disruption." He added that investors will eventually agree with his view that the economic situation is "sound, with room for further innovation highs." Bailey concurred, noting that if conditions are right, the S&P 500 index could see another exciting rally. "If companies can meet the consensus growth expectations for 2026, and market sentiment remains stable, we could see another impressive market performance, with the S&P 500 expected to rise 10% to 15% this year," Bailey said ### 相關股票 - [SPDR S&P 500 (SPY.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SPY.US.md) - [Direxion S&P 500 Bull 2X (SPUU.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SPUU.US.md) - [Direxion S&P 500 Bear 3X (SPXS.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SPXS.US.md) - [Direxion S&P 500 Bear 1X (SPDN.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SPDN.US.md) - [VG S-Cp Value (VBR.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/VBR.US.md) - [Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value (AVUV.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/AVUV.US.md) - [VG S&P 500 (VOO.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/VOO.US.md) - [ISHRS Russ 2000 Val (IWN.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IWN.US.md) - [iShares Core S&P US Value (IUSV.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IUSV.US.md) - [SPDR S&P 600 S-Cp Val (SLYV.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SLYV.US.md) - [Proshares Ultrashort S&P500 ETF (SDS.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SDS.US.md) - [VG S-Cp Grw (VBK.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/VBK.US.md) - [ISHRS Russ 1000 Growth (IWF.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IWF.US.md) - [Avantis US Large Cap Value ETF (AVLV.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/AVLV.US.md) - [Schw Us L-Cp Grw (SCHG.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SCHG.US.md) - [VG Growth (VUG.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/VUG.US.md) - [Direxion S&P 500 Bull 3X (SPXL.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SPXL.US.md) - [Pro UltrPro Shrt S&Pro 500 (SPXU.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SPXU.US.md) - [VG Value (VTV.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/VTV.US.md) - [Pro UltrPro S&Pro 500 (UPRO.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/UPRO.US.md) - [VG Mga Cap 300 Val (MGV.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/MGV.US.md) - [VG S&P M-Cap 400 Val (IVOV.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IVOV.US.md) - [iShares Core S&P 500 (IVV.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IVV.US.md) - [iShares Core S&P US Growth (IUSG.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IUSG.US.md) - [VG Mga Cap 300 Grw (MGK.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/MGK.US.md) - [Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/QQQ.US.md) - [VG Mid-Cap Val (VOE.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/VOE.US.md) - [S&P 500 (.SPX.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [Ultr S&P 500 Pro (SSO.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SSO.US.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [What are iShares Core S&P 500 ETFs?](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279499494.md) - [Here's the smartest way to invest in the S&P 500 in March](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279997438.md) - [Is Rollins Stock Underperforming the S&P 500?](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279222696.md) - [U.S. commercial paper market shrinks in week-Fed](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279827159.md) - [Is the S&P 500 Headed for a Correction?](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279745862.md)