--- title: "AI has not yet disrupted the labor market; U.S. initial jobless claims have slightly increased but remain close to a two-year low" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/277057941.md" description: "The number of initial jobless claims in the United States rose slightly, remaining close to a two-year low, indicating the resilience of the labor market. The number of continuing claims unexpectedly fell to 1.833 million, the lowest level in nearly 10 months. Despite fewer layoffs and a slowdown in hiring, the data reflects that the U.S. economy is approaching a \"soft landing.\" The upcoming non-farm payroll report will further assist in assessing the stability of the job market" datetime: "2026-02-26T14:28:02.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/277057941.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277057941.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/277057941.md) --- > 支持的語言: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/277057941.md) | [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277057941.md) # AI has not yet disrupted the labor market; U.S. initial jobless claims have slightly increased but remain close to a two-year low According to the latest statistics as of last week, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States increased slightly less than economists expected, rising slightly from the previous value. This indicates that the number of layoffs by U.S. companies remains relatively low, and despite the pessimistic rhetoric of "AI disrupting everything," the U.S. labor market demonstrates strong resilience, continuing to remain well below the average level of the past two years. Meanwhile, the number of continuing jobless claims, which serves as a flow indicator of unemployment in the U.S., unexpectedly decreased by 31,000 from the previous week to 1.833 million, marking one of the lowest levels in nearly 10 months. The latest data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday shows that the AI wave has not yet disrupted the job market as severely as the "Anthropic storm" has impacted software stocks. For the week ending February 21, the number of first-time jobless claims increased by only about 4,000 to 212,000. The median expectation from a survey of economists was 216,000. This statistical period includes the Presidents' Day holiday. The number of continuing jobless claims—an indicator measuring the number of people receiving benefits—unexpectedly dropped to 1.83 million from the previous week's benchmark (the week before last). ![1772115167(1).png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260226/1772115170868529.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) Despite fewer layoffs and a significant slowdown in hiring, these data still reflect the stability of the U.S. labor market and reinforce the narrative of a "soft landing." As shown in the above chart, the number of initial jobless claims during the holiday season slightly increased, while the number of continuing claims unexpectedly dropped to 1.83 million. During the holiday period, claims data may experience fluctuations. However, the current level of first-time claims for unemployment benefits is relatively moderate, further confirming the recent indications from other data that the U.S. labor market has stabilized to some extent, and the U.S. economy is getting closer to the Federal Reserve's desired "soft landing" scenario. ![1772115797(1).png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260226/1772115812363203.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) The U.S. non-farm payroll report for February, to be released on March 6, will help Federal Reserve policymakers more clearly assess whether the strong non-farm employment growth and declining unemployment rate in January reflect temporary optimistic fluctuations or a sustained positive trend in the non-farm employment market and the overall U.S. economy. The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims—an indicator that helps smooth out extreme fluctuations—remained basically flat last week at 220,250. Before seasonal adjustment, the number of first-time jobless claims dropped to its lowest level since September last week, with the largest declines occurring in Michigan, New York, and Ohio **Layoffs have not caused a stir, prices are in a cooling channel, but the Federal Reserve remains in a wait-and-see position** From the latest combined data, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have been recalibrated to "can cut, but not in a hurry to cut." On one hand, the January CPI year-on-year fell to 2.4%, and the core CPI year-on-year fell to 2.5%, indicating that inflation is indeed continuing to decline; on the other hand, as of the week ending February 21, the number of initial jobless claims only rose to 212,000, while the number of continuing jobless claims actually fell to 1.833 million. Additionally, with 130,000 new non-farm jobs added in January and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3%, it shows that the labor market has not deteriorated to the point where the Federal Reserve needs to "emergency support." In terms of monetary policy implications, this set of data weakens the necessity for an "immediate rate cut," while still leaving room for "continued rate cuts within the year." Therefore, the latest changes in the market regarding the rate cut path seem more like shifting the timing of the rate cut from "as soon as possible" to "mid-year is more reasonable." The market reaction following the CPI data release shows that federal funds futures have raised the probability of a rate cut in June to nearly 70%, up from about 64% before the data was released; at the same time, the market's anticipated total easing for the year has also risen to about 64 basis points, indicating that there is a possibility of two rate cuts throughout the year—market pricing suggests that the second rate cut by the Federal Reserve could occur in October. After the release of today's initial jobless claims data, there was no significant change in rate cut expectations, which also means that employment resilience remains, and layoffs have not significantly increased. Therefore, the Federal Reserve is almost not in a position to implement a rate cut monetary policy in March, and May may not be mature either, while June still appears to be the current time point most resembling a "rate cut window." In other words, rate cut expectations have not been eliminated but are instead "pushed back." From the recent collective statements of Federal Reserve officials, the policy function remains "inflation first, followed by employment downside risks." ### 相關股票 - [Global X NASDAQ 100 Collar 95-110 ETF (QCLR.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/QCLR.US.md) - [NASDAQ Composite Index (.IXIC.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/.IXIC.US.md) - [NASDAQ-100 (.NDX.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/.NDX.US.md) - [S&P 500 (.SPX.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/.DJI.US.md) - [Dow Jones U.S. Index (.DJUS.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/.DJUS.US.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - ['No Hire, No Fire' Economy Rolls On With Jobless Claims Back Near Record Lows](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279789987.md) - [TABLE - US Labor Dept. jobless claims data](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279790185.md) - [U.S. commercial paper market shrinks in week-Fed](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279827159.md) - [January Factory New Orders Excluding Transportation Rise 0.4% Vs. 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