--- title: "市場分析師對美國和以色列對伊朗的打擊行動作出反應" description: "美國和以色列對伊朗進行了打擊，導致中東局勢緊張升級。這引發了石油生產國海灣國家的擔憂，導致一些石油公司暫停通過霍爾木茲海峽的運輸。分析師預測，由於潛在的供應中斷，油價可能會大幅上漲，預計油價將上漲 10-25%。黃金等避險資產預計將受益，而風險資產可能會經歷波動。局勢仍然不可預測，地區衝突的可能性可能會影響全球石油和液化天然氣的流動" type: "news" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/277310253.md" published_at: "2026-02-28T13:52:00.000Z" --- # 市場分析師對美國和以色列對伊朗的打擊行動作出反應 > 美國和以色列對伊朗進行了打擊，導致中東局勢緊張升級。這引發了石油生產國海灣國家的擔憂，導致一些石油公司暫停通過霍爾木茲海峽的運輸。分析師預測，由於潛在的供應中斷，油價可能會大幅上漲，預計油價將上漲 10-25%。黃金等避險資產預計將受益，而風險資產可能會經歷波動。局勢仍然不可預測，地區衝突的可能性可能會影響全球石油和液化天然氣的流動 Feb 28 (Reuters) - The United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran on Saturday, targeting its leadership and plunging the Middle East into a new conflict that President Donald Trump said would end a security threat and give Iranians a chance to topple their rulers. The strikes put nearby oil-producing Gulf Arab countries on edge as fears of escalation grew, and Tehran responded by launching missiles towards Israel. Some oil majors and top trading houses suspended crude oil and fuel shipments via the Strait of Hormuz because of the attacks, four trading sources said on Saturday. QUOTES: VISHNU VARATHAN, HEAD OF MACRO REASEARCH, ASIA EX-JAPAN, MIZUHO, SINGAPORE: "A broader state of spots of regional attacks/instability may be par for the course - in line with Iran's warning. Oil prices are likely to remain elevated as production and passage remain prone to attacks and disruptions. OPEC may be under pressure to raise production to try and offset. But a 10-25% premium on oil is not outlandish - even without a blockade of the Straits of Hormuz, which is easily a 50% premium risk event." CHRISTOPHER WONG, STRATEGIST, OCBC, SINGAPORE: "The strike raises geopolitical risk premia as markets head into Monday's open. The immediate reaction function is fairly predictable: safe-haven assets such as gold are likely to see an upside gap, while oil prices may also firm on supply-disruption concerns. Risk assets and high-beta currencies... could face an initial bout of volatility, particularly if headlines suggest potential retaliation or regional spillovers." NICK FERRES, CIO, VANTAGE POINT ASSET MANAGEMENT, SINGAPORE: "Energy is still inexpensive. That's the obvious sector that rallies on Monday. And gold." SAUL KAVONIC, MST MARQUEE ENERGY ANALYST, SYDNEY: "Early indications are of a broader scale attack on Iran, with counterattacks which could escalate to draw in multiple gulf countries. If the Iranian regime feel they face an existential threat, attempts to block the Strait of Hormuz cannot be ruled out. The US and allies will have military escort plans to try protect passage through the Strait. "But if Iran were to manage to disrupt flows through the Strait, over 20% of global oil and LNG flows could be impacted. This could present a scenario three times the severity of the arab oil embargo and Iranian revolution in the 1970s, and drive oil prices into the triple digits, while LNG prices could retest the record highs of 2022. "The scope for intentional and unintentional escalation in these circumstances is broad and hard to predict. Initial oil market reactions will price in higher risk of various scenarios that may disrupt supply, from a more modest disruption to 2mmbbld of Iranian exports, to attacks on regional oil infrastructure, through to disruption of passage through the Strait of Hormuz in the most extreme scenario. This could add several dollars more to oil, poised for even higher price spikes is the conflict escalates. "A full prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely. But even a partial disruption of flows, especially as some tankers avoid the region, could see several million barrels per day of oil disrupted which would still send oil over $100." (Reporting by Scott Murdoch, Tom Westbrook, Rae Wee Compiled by Vidya Ranganathan) ### Related Stocks - [518850.CN - 華夏黃金ETF](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/518850.CN.md) - [02824.HK - 易方達黃金礦業ETF](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/02824.HK.md) - [159731.CN - 華夏中證石化產業ETF](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/159731.CN.md) - [159588.CN - 景順長城國證石油天然氣ETF](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/159588.CN.md) - [561760.CN - 博時中證油氣資源ETF](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/561760.CN.md) - [82824.HK - 易方達黃金礦-R](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/82824.HK.md) - [561360.CN - 國泰中證油氣產業ETF](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/561360.CN.md) - [601899.CN - 紫金礦業](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/601899.CN.md) - [02840.HK - SPDR金](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/02840.HK.md) - [159309.CN - 匯添富中證油氣資源ETF](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/159309.CN.md) ## Related News & Research | Title | Description | URL | |-------|-------------|-----| | 昇世匯盈今年推出昇世信託 目標 2 年內貢獻集團業務 2 至 3 成 | 香港升世匯盈（WRISE）宣佈將於 2026 年推出升世信託，目標在未來 1 至 2 年內貢獻集團業務 20% 至 30%。信託將成為集團家族辦公室的關鍵部分，滿足高淨值客户對資產規劃的需求。投資總監黃俊預計金價有機會試探 6000 美元每 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/277169194.md) | | OPEC+ 週日或敲定增產計劃，多位代表預計 4 月將重啓 “小幅增產” 模式 | 當前油價表現與 “供給過剩” 預期形成反差，需求韌性、地緣風險與多地供給擾動疊加，推動年內油價累計上漲 17%。多位 OPEC 代表預計將重啓 “温和小步” 增產，分析師預計將釋放約 13.7 萬桶/日的有限增量。 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/276898495.md) | | ADNOC 表示其運營持續進行，沒有受到中斷 | 2 月 28 日（路透社）- 阿布扎比國家石油公司（ADNOC）週六表示，其運營持續正常進行。針對美國和以色列對伊朗的襲擊後提出的問題，ADNOC 的一位發言人表示，公司正在密切監測局勢，並與相關部門進行協調。（記者：Yousef Saba | [Link](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/277317167.md) | | 現場市場——Carson Group 分析美國對伊朗的打擊可能對市場的影響 | 主要美國股指下跌，道瓊斯指數下跌超過 1%。標準普爾 500 指數接近歷史高點，但對美國可能對伊朗發動攻擊的擔憂依然很大。油價飆升，而黃金和債券等避險資產受到關注。歷史數據顯示，儘管短期內可能會出現波動，但市場在經歷地緣政治事件後通常會在長 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/277231109.md) | | 加拿大的 Tamarack Valley Energy 報告稱其第四季度產量增加，但收入下降 | Tamarack Valley Energy，一家加拿大石油生產商，報告了第四季度產量的增長，但收入卻有所下降。該公司完成了向核心 Clearwater 和 Charlie Lake 生產商的轉型，為 2025 年實現了 19% 的股東總回 | [Link](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/276869470.md) | --- > **免責聲明**：本文內容僅供參考，不構成任何投資建議。