--- title: "Goldman Sachs: Rising oil prices benefit the GDP of oil-exporting countries but have a negative overall impact on emerging markets" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/277433484.md" description: "Goldman Sachs pointed out that the rise in oil prices has a positive impact on the GDP of oil-exporting countries such as Russia and Brazil, but a negative impact on emerging markets as a whole. For every 10% increase in oil prices, the GDP of exporting countries can increase by 0.5 to 1 percentage points, while importing countries like Turkey may see a decrease of 0.8 percentage points in GDP. Goldman Sachs believes that Turkey and Egypt face significant trade risks, and the impact of rising oil prices on inflation is relatively consistent across countries, typically leading to an increase in the consumer price index of 0.2 to 0.5 percentage points" datetime: "2026-03-02T08:58:15.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/277433484.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277433484.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/277433484.md) --- > 支持的語言: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/277433484.md) | [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277433484.md) # Goldman Sachs: Rising oil prices benefit the GDP of oil-exporting countries but have a negative overall impact on emerging markets According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Goldman Sachs released a research report stating that the situation regarding the attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran last Saturday (28th) remains unclear, depending on the scale and duration of the conflict, which is likely to have significant direct economic impacts on multiple countries in the Middle East. In terms of economic growth, Goldman Sachs indicated that, as expected, the impact of oil price fluctuations on oil-exporting and importing countries varies significantly. Analysis shows that, all else being equal, a 10% increase in oil prices would lead to a 0.5 to 1 percentage point increase in the actual local GDP levels of exporting countries like Russia and Brazil over 2 to 3 years. For oil-importing countries, it could lead to a decrease of up to 0.8 percentage points in the actual GDP levels of countries like Turkey, with the most noticeable impact on growth typically appearing about two quarters later. Goldman Sachs also found that rising oil prices have a negative overall impact on emerging market economies. Although emerging economies are generally more reliant on commodity exports than developed economies, the proportion of commodity consumption in GDP is also higher, making them more susceptible to the secondary effects of rising oil prices on global economic growth. The bank believes that Turkey and Egypt face the greatest trade risks with countries directly affected by the conflict. Besides neighboring countries in the region, India, Thailand, and Malaysia also have relatively high export shares to the affected economies. Despite Israel being a direct participant in the conflict and located at the center of the region, its trade risks with other economies in the region are actually limited. Regarding inflation, Goldman Sachs believes that the impact of oil price fluctuations on inflation is relatively consistent across countries. A 10% increase in oil prices typically raises the consumer price index level (including second-round effects) by 0.2 to 0.5 percentage points, with Hungary, Poland, Thailand, and Turkey being relatively more affected. Unlike the impact on growth, most of the effects on consumer prices tend to manifest relatively quickly (within a quarter). In terms of monetary policy, Goldman Sachs pointed out that although central banks in various countries generally focus more on core inflation rather than overall inflation, the ability of emerging market central banks to "see through" fuel price fluctuations is limited by two factors: first, the weight of fuel prices in the consumer price index of emerging economies is usually higher than that in developed economies; second, the credibility of monetary policy formulation in emerging markets is generally lower, leading to a more significant secondary impact of overall inflation on core inflation. Meanwhile, due to the strengthening of emerging market currencies and the impact of U.S. tariffs on third countries, among other reasons, inflation in most emerging markets has been on a declining trend. Therefore, Goldman Sachs believes that, for now, the rise in energy prices is the reason why policymakers in emerging markets are slowing down or delaying the interest rate cut cycle, rather than a clear shift towards a hawkish stance ### 相關股票 - [SPDR Em Mkt (SPEM.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SPEM.US.md) - [iShares MSCI Turkey (TUR.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/TUR.US.md) - [United States Oil Fund LP (USO.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/USO.US.md) - [Dimensional Emerging Markets Value ETF (DFEV.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/DFEV.US.md) - [SPDR Energy Select (XLE.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/XLE.US.md) - [iShares Emerging Markets Equity Factor ETF (EMGF.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/EMGF.US.md) - [SPDR S&P Em Asia (GMF.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/GMF.US.md) - [SPDR O&G Ex & Prd (XOP.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/XOP.US.md) - [E Fund Itausa Bovespa ETF(QDII) (520870.CN)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/520870.CN.md) - [Avantis Emerging Markets Value ETF (AVES.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/AVES.US.md) - [iShares MSCI Brazil (EWZ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/EWZ.US.md) - [iShares MSCI Russia Capped Swap ETF USD (RUSS.UK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/RUSS.UK.md) - [iShares US Oil & Gas Expl & Prod (IEO.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IEO.US.md) - [iShares MSCI Emerging Mkts Val Fac ETF (EVLU.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/EVLU.US.md) - [iShares MSCI Russia ADR/GDR UCITS ETF (CSRU.UK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/CSRU.UK.md) - [Wisdomtree EM High Dividend Fund (DEM.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/DEM.US.md) - [iShares MSCI EM Ex-China (EMXC.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/EMXC.US.md) - [iShares MSCI Em (EEM.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/EEM.US.md) - [Penghua CNI Oil&Gas ETF (159697.CN)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/159697.CN.md) - [Schw Em Mkt (SCHE.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SCHE.US.md) - [iShares Core MSCI EM (IEMG.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IEMG.US.md) - [VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/OIH.US.md) - [ChinaAMC Bradesco Bovespa ETF(QDII) (159100.CN)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/159100.CN.md) - [iShares MSCI EM Market Asia (EEMA.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/EEMA.US.md) - [VanEck Russia ETF (RSX.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/RSX.US.md) - [Lyxor MSCI Russia UCITS ETF Dist (RUSL.UK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/RUSL.UK.md) - [Avantis Emerging Markets Equity ETF (AVEM.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/AVEM.US.md) - [SPDR S&P Em Mkt Dvd (EDIV.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/EDIV.US.md) - [FIL Ltd. (FEMX.AU)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/FEMX.AU.md) - [ISHRS S&P Glb Engy (IXC.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IXC.US.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [Ukrainian strikes cut power to hundreds of thousands in Russia's Belgorod region, governor says](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280430362.md) - [Caliche Says FERC approved GTS' 30 bcf gas storage expansion](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280199782.md) - [-Putin calls for 'balanced decisions' on use of Russia's energy revenues](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280157818.md) - [Permianville Royalty Trust Announces Filing of Annual Report on Form 10-K | PVL Stock News](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280361655.md) - [Brazilian fuel distributor group warns government of supply risks](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279830127.md)