--- title: "The Governor of the Bank of Japan warns that the war in Iran may severely impact the economy, downplaying the prospects of a rate hike in March" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/277742564.md" description: "Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda warned that the Middle East conflict could have a significant impact on the Japanese economy, potentially leading to enhanced expectations for policy stability. He stated that rising oil prices could suppress the economy by worsening trade conditions and curb the upward trend in prices. Japan relies almost entirely on imported fuel, and rising oil prices will exacerbate the inflationary pressures brought about by the weakness of the yen. Despite concerns about the situation in the Middle East, Ueda reiterated that if the economic outlook improves, he would consider raising interest rates" datetime: "2026-03-04T07:48:03.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/277742564.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277742564.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/277742564.md) --- > 支持的語言: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/277742564.md) | [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/277742564.md) # The Governor of the Bank of Japan warns that the war in Iran may severely impact the economy, downplaying the prospects of a rate hike in March The Zhitong Finance APP learned that Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda warned that the Middle East conflict could have a significant impact on the Japanese economy. This statement may strengthen investors' expectations that authorities will maintain policy stability when they meet later this month. As the war between the U.S. and Israel affects the entire region, Ueda promised to closely monitor the developments. With countries around the world grappling with this conflict, which U.S. President Trump has indicated could last for weeks, oil and gas prices have surged. Ueda's cautious stance suggests that he does not intend to raise the benchmark interest rate when the central bank announces its policy decision on March 19. In response to questions in Congress on Wednesday, Ueda stated, "Depending on the future developments, this could have a significant impact on the global economy and the Japanese economy through channels such as crude oil and other energy prices and international financial markets. At this moment, I cannot make any definitive judgments. We will continue to closely monitor the developments in the Middle East and their impact on domestic and international economies and financial markets." Although the Bank of Japan will closely monitor the war in Iran, Ueda also reiterated the central bank's position that raising the benchmark interest rate would be appropriate if the quarterly updated economic outlook materializes. According to pricing in the overnight swap market, traders believe there is about a 6% chance that the Bank of Japan will raise the policy rate from 0.75% this month, and if the April meeting is taken into account, the probability could jump to around 60%. Ueda listed some potential impacts of the Middle East conflict on the Japanese economy. Rising oil prices could suppress the economy by worsening trade conditions, thereby dampening inflationary trends. Conversely, if oil prices continue to rise, it could push up inflation expectations through higher price levels. Japan relies almost entirely on imported fuel, making its economy highly susceptible to shocks from rising oil prices. An increase in oil prices would exacerbate inflationary pressures caused by a weak yen, as a weaker yen raises the cost of raw material imports. According to data from Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan's dependence on Middle Eastern oil has hovered around 90%, reaching 95.1% in January. Most of this oil is transported to Japan via the Strait of Hormuz. These remarks highlight the challenges the Bank of Japan faces in timing its next interest rate hike, as the uncertainty of the Middle East conflict casts a shadow over the fragile economic outlook. When asked if conditions were in place for another rate hike, Ueda stated, "If the economic and price trends align with the median of our quarterly forecasts, we will continue to raise rates." When asked about the recent decline of the yen, Ueda mentioned that the Bank of Japan is "very cautiously" analyzing the potential impact of exchange rate fluctuations on inflation, as companies are more inclined to pass on the rising import costs caused by a weak yen to consumers. He also stated that Japan needs to significantly increase wages to sustainably and stably achieve the 2% inflation target. Ueda said, "The Bank of Japan cannot exert too much influence on real wage growth," as real wage growth primarily depends on medium- to long-term labor productivity ### 相關股票 - [Monogatari Corporation (3097.JP)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/3097.JP.md) - [AP Holdings Co., Ltd. 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