---
title: "Goldman Sachs lowers Xiaomi's target price to 41 yuan, reducing revenue and adjusted profit forecasts"
type: "News"
locale: "zh-HK"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/278486212.md"
description: "Goldman Sachs lowered Xiaomi's target price to HKD 41, citing rising costs in the consumer electronics and automotive industries, which have weakened consumer demand and impacted profitability. It expects revenue growth rates to decline to 2%, 9%, and 8% for 2025 to 2027, with adjusted net profit forecasts cut by 8%, 24%, and 20%. Despite short-term stock price pressures, Goldman Sachs maintains a \"Buy\" rating, believing the risk-reward remains attractive. It anticipates total revenue will grow by 7% to RMB 116 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, but net profit will decline by 29% to RMB 5.9 billion"
datetime: "2026-03-10T03:18:12.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/278486212.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/278486212.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/278486212.md)
---

> 支持的語言: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/278486212.md) | [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/278486212.md)


# Goldman Sachs lowers Xiaomi's target price to 41 yuan, reducing revenue and adjusted profit forecasts

Goldman Sachs published a research report indicating that Xiaomi Group (01810.HK) is facing two major obstacles to its profitability and valuation due to soaring upstream costs in the consumer electronics and automotive industries, along with the gradual removal of national subsidies and incentives for new energy vehicles, leading to weakened consumer demand. As a result, Goldman Sachs further lowered its revenue forecasts for Xiaomi for 2025 to 2027 to 2%, 9%, and 8%, covering the smartphone, AIoT, and smart electric vehicle segments; it also cut its adjusted net profit forecasts by 8%, 24%, and 20%; and expects the stock price to encounter resistance in the short term.

Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating on Xiaomi, lowering the target price from HKD 47.5 to HKD 41, representing an upside potential of 23%; it believes that based on a 12-month horizon, the risk-reward remains attractive. Goldman Sachs anticipates a 12-month forward value per share of HKD 27.5 in a bear market scenario and HKD 47 in a bull market, implying declines of 18% and increases of 41%, respectively.

Goldman Sachs believes that if the stock remains at current levels after 12 months, its pricing may be misaligned, as the market may overlook the cyclical fluctuations in upstream costs and the company's execution in adjusting pricing and product strategies, which should be able to control losses in the smartphone division in the short term and achieve more normalized profit margins and larger market shares in the medium term.

For the fourth quarter of 2025, Goldman Sachs forecasts that the group's total revenue will grow by 7% year-on-year to RMB 116 billion; adjusted net profit is expected to decline by 29% year-on-year to RMB 5.9 billion; although the profit decline is attributed to revenue pressure on Xiaomi's core business and decreased operational leverage efficiency, it believes the group may provide higher inventory provisions, account for expenses related to optimizing the Xiaomi Mall, and limit investment income, thereby providing more buffer for profits in 2026.

Goldman Sachs also lowered the group's revenue forecast for 2025 by 2% and the non-International Financial Reporting Standards net profit forecast by 8%, primarily based on downward revisions to gross margin forecasts for Xiaomi's core business and smart electric vehicle business; it reduced revenue forecasts for this year and next year by 8% to 9%, and due to assumptions about gross margins and reduced operational leverage, it lowered adjusted net profit forecasts for this year and next year by 19% to 23%.

The main catalysts for the group include the announcement of the fourth-quarter 2025 results in late March this year, the official release of the new version of the SU7 model, and possible upgrades to assisted driving technology; updates regarding Xiaomi's large language model, such as MiMo-v2-Pro, may occur in the coming months; and the official release of the YU7 GT model around mid-2026

## 相關資訊與研究

- [Why $4 gas won’t spark an EV buying spree](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280618191.md)
- [ROI-Iran war fuel crisis gives electric cars a long-term boost: Russell](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280266276.md)
- [The Tiny Indian EV That Could (& Which Proved The Future Was Plug-In)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280196563.md)
- [Rising gas prices could be good news for EVs](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280499793.md)
- [Best used electric cars for less than £10k to beat spiralling petrol and diesel prices](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280045157.md)