---
title: "\"Forecast\" Morgan Stanley's performance forecast for Alibaba's third fiscal quarter of fiscal year 2026 (Table)"
type: "News"
locale: "zh-HK"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/278831253.md"
description: "Morgan Stanley predicts Alibaba's performance for the third quarter of the fiscal year 2026, which will be announced next Thursday. The consolidated revenue is expected to be RMB 286.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%. The revenue for the Chinese e-commerce group is expected to be RMB 163.679 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%. The consolidated adjusted EBITA is expected to be RMB 30.373 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 44.6%. The EBITA for the Cloud Intelligence Group is expected to grow by 22.9%"
datetime: "2026-03-12T06:37:49.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/278831253.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/278831253.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/278831253.md)
---

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# "Forecast" Morgan Stanley's performance forecast for Alibaba's third fiscal quarter of fiscal year 2026 (Table)

Alibaba-W (09988.HK) will announce its third-quarter results for the fiscal year 2026 ending December 2025 next Thursday (19th). Morgan Stanley released a report in early January, listing its forecasts for Alibaba (09988.HK) for the third quarter of the fiscal year 2026 ending December 2025:

Performance Breakdown│Fiscal Year 2026 Third Quarter Forecast│Year-on-Year Change

Consolidated Revenue│RMB 286.2 billion│+2.2%

-   China E-commerce Group Revenue│RMB 163.679 billion│+7.8%

\-\> Customer Management Revenue (CMR)│RMB 105.736 billion│+3%

\-\> Instant Retail Revenue│RMB 21.275 billion│+55%

-   International Digital Commerce Group Revenue│RMB 40.523 billion│+7.3%

Cloud Intelligence Group Revenue│RMB 42.852 billion│+35%

All Other Revenue│RMB 65.545 billion│-25.5%

\---------------------------------------------------

Consolidated Adjusted EBITA│RMB 30.373 billion│-44.6%

-   China E-commerce Group EBITA│RMB 36.009 billion│-40.6%
    
-   International Digital Commerce Group EBITA│Loss of RMB 1.418 billion│Narrowed by 71.4%
    
-   Cloud Intelligence Group EBITA│RMB 3.857 billion│+22.9%
    
-   All Other EBITA│Loss of RMB 7.013 billion│Widened by 117.1%
    

\---------------------------------------------------

Non-GAAP Net Profit│RMB 30.373 billion│-44.6%

\---------------------------------------------------

Adjusted EBITA Margin│10.6%│-9 percentage points

-   China E-commerce Group Adjusted EBITA Margin│22%│-17.9 percentage points
    
-   International Digital Commerce Group Adjusted EBITA Margin│-3.5%│-9.6 percentage points
    
-   Cloud Intelligence Group Adjusted EBITA Margin│9%│-0.9 percentage points
    
-   All Other Adjusted EBITA Margin│-10.7%│-7 percentage points

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