--- title: "Motilal Oswal 表示，液化石油氣的短缺可能會影響 2026 財年第四季度的食品配送訂單增長" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/278851635.md" description: "Motilal Oswal 分析師警告稱，由於霍爾木茲海峽的關閉，液化石油氣（LPG）短缺可能會對 Zomato 和 Swiggy 等平台在 FY26 第四季度的食品配送訂單增長產生負面影響。由於餐廳對 LPG 的依賴程度較高，供應有限可能導致營業時間和菜單選項減少，從而導致訂單量下降。如果 LPG 中斷持續，Zomato 和 Swiggy 的增長率可能會暫時下降，儘管食品配送的潛在需求依然強勁" datetime: "2026-03-12T01:02:07.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/278851635.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/278851635.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/278851635.md) --- # Motilal Oswal 表示，液化石油氣的短缺可能會影響 2026 財年第四季度的食品配送訂單增長 ## LPG supply shortage impact on Swiggy, Zomato Supply disruptions in liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, could affect India’s food delivery ecosystem if the shortage persists, according to analysts at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. The brokerage noted that food delivery platforms such as Zomato and Swiggy could see a near-term moderation in order volumes as restaurants struggle with limited LPG availability. Since a large share of restaurant kitchens rely heavily on commercial LPG cylinders, any supply disruption can quickly translate into fewer operating hours, reduced menus, or even temporary shutdowns. "Food delivery gross order value (GOV) growth, which had been improving in recent quarters, could face near-term hiccups if the LPG disruption persists through March," Motilal Oswal said in its report. According to the brokerage, limited cooking capacity at restaurants may reduce order availability on delivery apps, leading to a temporary slowdown in the March quarter. On the BSE, shares of Zomato-parent Eternal, and Swiggy declined by 4.7 per cent each in the intraday trade. By 2:15 PM, however, both stocks were off their lows, trading up to 0.9 per cent lower, compared to the BSE Sensex’s decline of 0.68 per cent. Further, Eternal's share price has tumbled 9.1 per cent so far in March, while Swiggy shares are down 5.7 per cent. The Sensex index has slipped 5.4 per cent during the period. ### India's reliance on LPG India consumes roughly 28-30 million metric tonnes of LPG annually, with 55-60 per cent of the supply sourced through imports. Nearly 90 per cent of the imported LPG originates from Middle Eastern suppliers such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Kuwait. As per the brokerage’s analysis, nearly 80-85 per cent of these imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, exposing the commodity to geopolitical disruptions in West Asia. "Unlike crude oil, India does not maintain much strategic LPG reserves, which means supply disruptions tend to show up quickly in the market, particularly in the commercial segment where inventory buffers are smaller," MOFSL noted. ### Restaurants feel the heat Channel checks by JM Financial Institutional Securities suggest that 60-65 per cent of overall cooking at major quick service restaurant (QSR) chains is LPG dependent, which might have a buffer for one-two weeks of supply. If the LPG supply chain issue persists beyond that, then their operations are likely to be hampered, the brokerage said. Meanwhile, according to Motilal Oswal estimates commercial establishments such as restaurants, hotels, and catering services account for around 8\\-10 per cent of total LPG consumption in India. Within restaurant kitchens, nearly 80 per cent of cooking operations rely on LPG cylinders, while the remaining share uses alternatives such as piped natural gas. "Most restaurant outlets maintain only two to six days of LPG stock due to storage constraints and regulatory limits on cylinder storage. As a result, supply interruptions can begin affecting operations within just a few days," the brokerage said. This operational vulnerability, it added, could eventually affect food delivery platforms, whose business models depend on a steady supply of meals from partner restaurants. "Reduced menus, limited cooking hours or temporarily shut kitchens at some restaurants may limit order availability on platforms, leading to temporary moderation in Q4FY26 food delivery order volumes," the brokerage said. Notably, the Gig and Platform Service Workers Union (GIPSWU) posted on social media platform 'X' that on the closure of restaurants, dhabas, cloud kitchens, catering services and street vendors due to LPG shortage has wiped out "50-60 per cent of food delivery orders on online platforms such as Zomato and Swiggy". ### Order volumes to take a hit Zomato's food delivery GOV has expanded at a year-on-year (Y-o-Y) rate of about 16-21 per cent over the past four quarters, while Swiggy has recorded growth of roughly 18-20 per cent during the same period. For now, Motilal Oswal estimates Zomato's GOV growth at around 15.3 per cent in FY26 and 18 per cent in FY27. For Swiggy, it expects growth of about 20.2 per cent in FY26 and 17.3 per cent in FY27, supported by deeper penetration across cities and gradual market share gains. "However, if the commercial LPG shortage persists through the remainder of March, it could begin to reflect in a temporary decline in order volumes in Q4FY26," it said. It pegs Zomato's food delivery GOV growth at 20.3 per cent in Q4FY26 and 20.2 per cent in Q1FY27. For Swiggy, the estimates stand at 22.6 per cent for Q4FY26 and 18.1 per cent in Q1FY27. From an investment standpoint, Motilal Oswal believes the disruption is likely to be short-lived rather than structural. The brokerage indicated that the underlying demand for food delivery remains intact and that growth momentum should resume once LPG supplies stabilise. _**\=============== Disclaimer: View and outlook shared belong to the respective brokerages/analysts and are not endorsed by Business Standard. 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