--- title: "北美晨間簡報：由於油價飆升，股市預計將低開" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279026714.md" description: "股指期貨預計將低開，因為油價超過 100 美元，儘管通過允許購買受制裁的俄羅斯原油來增加全球供應的努力仍在進行。由於油輪供應有限和運輸成本上升，市場面臨干擾。由於戰爭擾亂出口，肥料供應商預計將上漲。美聯儲首選的通脹指標即將公佈，下週的央行會議可能會增加市場波動。Adobe 在首席執行官離職消息後股價下跌超過 8%，而 BuzzFeed 則警告流動性問題。由於對伊朗衝突導致能源價格上漲的經濟影響的擔憂，美元對其他貨幣上漲" datetime: "2026-03-13T10:26:14.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279026714.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279026714.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279026714.md) --- # 北美晨間簡報：由於油價飆升，股市預計將低開 OPENING CALL Stock futures were inching down Friday with oil prices above $100, despite efforts to boost global supplies by allowing countries to purchase sanctioned Russian crude already at sea. There are about 124 million barrels of Russian oil at sea, according to industry executives, about five or six days of the supply usually expected to flow out of the Strait of Hormuz. Phillip Nova said the temporary move was unlikely to bring down prices, as the disruption isn't just about the availability of barrels but also the cost of moving them . "Longer shipping routes, limited tanker availability, and significantly higher insurance costs are all adding hefty 'war-risk premiums' to physical crude cargoes." Less than a million barrels a day are now going through the strait-down from 20 million barrels-mostly aboard Chinese- and Russian-controlled tankers, according to oil traders and tanker owners. Meanwhile, fertilizer suppliers rose premarket, poised to extend their rally as the war disrupts exports. The personal-consumption expenditures index--the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge--is due at 8:30 a.m. ET. Next week will be a busy one for central bank meetings, with the Fed, European Central Bank and the Bank of England all set to gather as the war rages on. The meetings might add to volatility , Citi said, adding that short-end government bond yields were likely to remain vulnerable until there was some clarity as to when the Strait of Hormuz might re-open. Traders now see a 47% chance that the Fed doesn't cut rates at all in 2026, according to the CME FedWatch tool, up from just 3% a month ago. Last night the President posted on Truth social encouraging the Fed's Powell to loosen monetary policy : "He should be dropping Interest Rates, IMMEDIATELY, not waiting for the next meeting!" Stocks to Watch Adobe fell more than 8% in premarket after the company said its CEO was to depart after 18 years. BuzzFeed issued a going-concern warning, saying it lacks liquidity for the coming year. Ulta Beauty guided for slower annual growth, and its per-share earnings forecast disappointed. Shares dropped 8.5%. Watch For: Durable Goods for January; 2nd estimate GDP for 4Q; Personal Income and Outlays for January; University of Michigan Preliminary Consumer Survey for March; Canada Labour Force Survey for February Today's Top Headlines/Must Reads: \-Israeli Officials Think Iran's Regime Isn't Likely to Fall Soon \-China's ByteDance Gets Access to Top Nvidia AI Chips \-The Electric Grid Needs Huge Upgrades. No One Knows Who Will Pay for Them. MARKET WRAPS Forex: The dollar rose to a three-and-a-half-month high against a basket of currencies. "The second week of the Iran conflict is coming to an end and there still seems to be no solution in sight," Commerzbank said. The currency was likely to strengthen in the near term as growth in the U.S. was better and it's easier for the Fed to delay expected rate cuts to respond to potentially higher inflation, it added. The euro fell to a seven-month low against the dollar on building concerns about the economic fallout from rising energy prices resulting from the Iran war. The eurozone's terms of trade could be dented by higher energy prices as an energy importer, and a combination of potentially higher inflation and weak growth leaves the ECB in a difficult position. The market was pricing in a rate rise by year-end, having previously expected the ECB to leave rates on hold, LSEG data showed. However, the focus is on the growth implications of higher energy prices. Sterling fell after data showed the U.K. economy unexpectedly registered flat growth in January. "Our expectations for a strong start to the year have diminished," Deutsche Bank said. The Iran conflict could further weigh on growth as higher energy prices squeeze disposable incomes and constrain investment and spending, it added. Bonds: Short- and medium-term Treasury yields declined , while ultralong Treasury yields were marginally higher as bond investors sought clarity on the economic impact of the war in Iran. "Investors continue to grapple with tail--risk scenarios, but the short story remains unchanged: energy prices and rates volatility are staying elevated, and this is not an environment conducive to taking large positions or fading dislocations," SocGen said. In bond markets several premiums were rising at once , said Aberdeen Investments. Union Bancaire Privee said that within fixed-income focused strategies, opportunities lie with rates and government bond markets , driven by shifting inflation dynamics both within and across economies, and convertible bond arbitrage was benefiting from a number of tailwinds. Energy: Brent crude rose above $100 a barrel despite efforts to boost global supplies by temporarily allowing countries to purchase Russian oil already at sea. "Quick measures are unlikely to relieve the pressure," Swissquote said. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called for an international coalition to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz "as soon as it is militarily possible," though Iran's new leader has vowed to keep blocking the waterway. The benchmarks of Brent and WTI were on track for weekly gains of around 9% and 11%, respectively. Metals: Gold prices were on track for weekly losses , pressured by a stronger dollar, rising oil prices and uncertainty surrounding Fed policy. "The USD has strengthened due to its safe-haven status, particularly as rising oil prices benefit the U.S. which is a net energy exporter," ANZ said. "Concerns are mounting over the Fed's approach to rate cuts, with higher oil prices raising the possibility of renewed inflation pressures." TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES Apple Cuts App Store Fees in China as Regulatory Scrutiny Intensifies Apple is lowering the fees it collects from app developers in China, a rare move aimed at defusing a brewing regulatory showdown in its most important international market. The iPhone maker said Friday that it will lower the commission it charges on digital sales in China to 25% from 30% following discussions with regulators. The cut, which takes effect Sunday, also applies to smaller developers and certain subscription services, reducing rates to 12% from 15%. Rivian's Make-or-Break Car Arrives at the Worst Possible Moment for EVs RJ Scaringe has been selling his boxy, off-road-ready Rivian SUVs and trucks to well-heeled electric vehicle fans for the past few years. Now, his company, Rivian Automotive, is trying to do what few other automakers have been able to pull off: go from a niche startup to a mainstream car brand. 'Sesame Street' Producer Sues SeaWorld Parent Over Unpaid Royalties Big Bird and Shamu are at odds. The nonprofit behind the "Sesame Street" television show has sued SeaWorld's parent company, alleging the aquatic park operator hasn't been paying royalties and shortened operations of a Sesame-themed park with limited notice. Why Bank Stocks Are Getting Beaten Up Over Private Credit Many private-credit funds have been barring the door for their clients. They had better hope their bankers don't turn off the taps, too. Funds that make loans to companies are also themselves borrowers, often from banks. In good times, funds like nontraded business-development companies use borrowing to boost their returns. An Exodus of Money Endangers Wall Street's Private-Credit Craze The private-credit engine that powered massive growth on Wall Street is sputtering, with investors trying to pull money out of big funds, forcing firms into uncomfortable decisions and endangering their future profits. The latest example came Wednesday when Cliffwater told clients that investors in its largest fund asked to cash out 14% of their money this quarter. The $33 billion fund will pay out about 50% of the redemption requests, meaning that the other half will need to wait at least another quarter to exit. Hong Kong Exchange Proposes Easing Listing Rules Hong Kong has proposed a series of measures to make it easier for companies to list on its stock exchange, aiming to strengthen the city's appeal as an IPO venue amid the Asian financial hub's revival. Hong Kong's stock exchange on Friday proposed cutting the minimum listing requirement for companies with a weighted voting-rights structure to a market capitalization of 20 billion Hong Kong dollars, equivalent to US$2.56 billion, half the HK$40 billion required currently. Emboldened by Oil Shock, Iran's Leaders Play Diplomatic Hardball Arab diplomats trying to find a diplomatic path out of the war now being waged by the U.S. and Israel against Iran say Tehran, emboldened by its ability to rattle the global economy by choking oil shipments, has laid out steep preconditions for any return to talks. Iran is demanding that the airstrikes stop before it entertains cease-fire discussions and wants firm guarantees that it won't be attacked again if it agrees to stop the fight, Arab diplomats said. It also wants reparations for damages and is hoping to get U.S. forces to disengage from the region. U.S. Air Force Refueling Plane Crashes in Iraq A U.S. refueling plane crashed in western Iraq Thursday, as the American military pressed its punishing air campaign against Iran. Rescue operations were under way, and the U.S. military didn't say whether the servicemembers in the U.S. KC-135 Stratotanker were killed in the crash. Any fatalities would mark the first Air Force losses during the war with Iran, according to the military. In L.A., They're 'Low Key' Worried About Iranian Drones (MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires March 13, 2026 06:18 ET (10:18 GMT) Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. ### 相關股票 - [USDU.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/USDU.US.md) - [IEO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IEO.US.md) - [OIH.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/OIH.US.md) - [USO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/USO.US.md) - [UUP.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/UUP.US.md) - [XOP.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/XOP.US.md) - [ADBG.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/ADBG.US.md) - [ADBE.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/ADBE.US.md) - [XLE.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/XLE.US.md) - [IXC.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IXC.US.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [美联储古爾斯比：可能需要等到 2027 年才会降息](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/282744910.md) - [AI 丨 Anthropic 擬推 Opus 4.7 模型和 AI 設計工具](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/282734094.md) - [美 CFTC 查內線交易！川普伊朗政策轉向 油價暴跌前驚現神準交易](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/282880293.md) - [精準踩在川普伊朗政策轉向前 可疑石油交易引發美國監管機構調查](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/282916146.md) - [IMF 降今年全球 GDP 增速至 3.1% 倘伊朗局勢惡化或陷衰退](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/282717085.md)