--- title: "\"Three Oil Giants\" Think Tank: The natural gas market will continue to grow, and oil consumption will reach its peak" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279056417.md" description: "At the Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit in Beijing, experts stated that the natural gas market in China will continue to grow in the future, while oil consumption will peak. It is expected that in the next 10 years, domestic refined oil consumption will only see growth in aviation kerosene, while other products such as gasoline and diesel will decline. By 2025, domestic natural gas consumption will mainly come from industry and urban heating, with a growth rate of about 1.5%. The prospects for natural gas power generation are uncertain, influenced by geographical differences and market prices" datetime: "2026-03-13T13:48:36.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279056417.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279056417.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279056417.md) --- > 支持的語言: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279056417.md) | [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279056417.md) # "Three Oil Giants" Think Tank: The natural gas market will continue to grow, and oil consumption will reach its peak **Reporter: Pan JunTian** At the Bloomberg New Energy Finance Beijing Summit held on March 13, experts from the Sinopec Economic and Technological Research Institute, the China National Petroleum Economic and Technological Research Institute, and the CNOOC Group Energy Economic Research Institute all agreed that China's natural gas market will maintain high growth rates in the future, while domestic oil consumption will peak. Cao Jianjun, chief expert at the Sinopec Economic and Technological Research Institute, stated that in the next ten years, among domestic refined oil consumption categories, only aviation kerosene is expected to see growth, but its small base is insufficient to offset the decline in gasoline and diesel. Meanwhile, domestic natural gas consumption will continue to grow for at least the next ten years. The "2025 Domestic and International Oil and Gas Industry Development Report" released by the China National Petroleum Economic and Technological Research Institute shows that by 2025, domestic refined oil consumption is expected to decrease by about 3% year-on-year, with gasoline and diesel consumption decreasing by 2.4% and 4.4% respectively, while aviation kerosene consumption is expected to increase by 2.1%; chemical raw material oil is expected to grow by 8.8%. Dai Jiaquan, chief economist at the China National Petroleum Economic and Technological Research Institute, stated that the domestic natural gas market has completed its transition from policy-driven to market-driven. By 2025, domestic natural gas consumption will still be mainly for industrial use and city gas, with both growing at only about 1.5%. The consumption increase that year will mainly come from LNG heavy trucks replacing diesel vehicles. Regarding the generally optimistic outlook for natural gas power generation in the industry, Dai Jiaquan believes that its uncertainty remains high. He cited that in 2025, the average import price of LNG in China is expected to be about 2.58 yuan per standard cubic meter, while the average price of pipeline imported natural gas is about 1.80 yuan per standard cubic meter, and the acceptable raw material price ceiling for natural gas peak-shaving electricity prices is about 2.6 yuan per standard cubic meter. Dai Jiaquan pointed out that another factor affecting natural gas power generation is geographical differences. Taking Beijing as an example, the daily natural gas demand in winter exceeds 100 million cubic meters, coinciding with peak electricity usage. If the installed capacity for natural gas power generation expands, upstream oil and gas companies will face significant supply pressure. Guo Shengwei, deputy director of the CNOOC Group Energy Economic Research Institute, stated that natural gas power plants will likely see differentiated profitability in the future due to different locations and management. Cao Jianjun predicts that in the next five years, there is clear development space for natural gas in the industrial sector, especially in coal substitution, but it needs to consider cost competition with coal; while natural gas power generation has potential, it is constrained by multiple factors; the residential (city gas) and vehicle (LNG heavy trucks) sectors will become important sources of incremental natural gas consumption. Domestic oil consumption is expected to peak during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. On March 7, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to interpret the draft outline of the "14th Five-Year Plan." Yuan Da, secretary-general of the National Development and Reform Commission, stated that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, there will be greater efforts to develop non-fossil energy, accelerate the coverage of new electricity consumption by new clean energy generation, and promote the peak of coal and oil consumption Dai Jiaquan stated that due to the demand for crude oil production capacity reserves, in the future, when domestic refined oil consumption is relatively low, the scale of refined oil exports can be appropriately expanded to enhance the resilience of the industrial chain. He also predicts that by 2030, domestic natural gas production is expected to exceed 300 billion cubic meters annually, while crude oil production will remain above 200 million tons. Regarding the issue of soaring international oil prices, Dai Jiaquan mentioned that although there are currently problems with international crude oil transportation, there are sufficient domestic crude oil reserves to cope with the impact. From 2019 to 2025, the cumulative newly proven geological reserves of oil nationwide are expected to exceed 1 billion tons, with annual crude oil production increasing from 189 million tons in 2019 to 216 million tons in 2025. Dai Jiaquan stated that according to calculations, if international oil prices remain at $80 per barrel in the long term, and domestic related planning investments are in place, approximately 10 million tons per year of new crude oil production capacity can be added from untapped reserves. As of March 13, Brent crude oil was reported at approximately $102 per barrel, and Oman crude oil was reported at approximately $120 per barrel. 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