--- title: "Antique 升級了 GAIL；在西亞戰爭背景下，預計上游和石油營銷公司（OMCs）有上漲空間" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279197286.md" description: "Antique Stock Broking 將 GAIL (India) Ltd. 的評級從 “持有” 上調至 “買入”，原因是股票價格出現了顯著的修正，儘管對其目標價格的影響有限。該券商對上游石油公司和石油營銷公司（OMCs）持樂觀態度，但對城市燃氣分銷公司則持負面看法。他們預測 FY27 年原油價格平均為每桶 80 美元，ONGC 的 EBITDA 可能增長 30%，而印度石油公司（Oil India）的 EBITDA 可能增長 28%。OMCs 面臨短期虧損，但預計將通過政府幹預恢復。GAIL 的目標價格定為每股 ₹172，顯示出 16% 的上漲空間" datetime: "2026-03-15T19:29:59.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279197286.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279197286.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279197286.md) --- # Antique 升級了 GAIL；在西亞戰爭背景下，預計上游和石油營銷公司（OMCs）有上漲空間 Antique Stock Broking turned positive on upstream oil companies and oil marketing companies (OMCs), while maintaining a negative view on city gas distribution (CGD) companies amid structural margin pressures and the ongoing phase-out of APM gas. The brokerage also upgraded GAIL (India) Ltd. to 'Buy' from 'Hold', citing the sharp correction in the stock price despite a relatively limited impact on its target price. According to Antique, the recent correction in downstream stocks appears excessive compared with the potential impact from the ongoing West Asia conflict, while upstream companies, the biggest beneficiaries of higher crude prices, have not responded meaningfully and continue to trade at a discount to sustainable valuations. The brokerage's stress case assumes crude averaging $90 per barrel in the first half of FY27 and $70 per barrel in the second half, implying a full-year average of about $80 per barrel if the conflict persists for six months. Crude prices may remain firm due to low inventories ahead of the peak driving season between July and September, though Antique does not expect prices to sustainably breach $90 per barrel unless major oil and gas infrastructure becomes a target. Antique estimates that FY27 Ebitda could rise by about 30 per cent for Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC) and 28 per cent for Oil India Ltd. However, their stocks still trade 4-6 per cent below pre-war levels, implying crude assumptions of only about $52 per barrel for ONGC and $47 per barrel for Oil India. The brokerage said the removal of windfall tax risk through the Oilfields Amendment Bill, 2024, along with a production upcycle, makes valuations attractive for upstream companies. ### Oil and Gas stocks in focus For OMCs, including Indian Oil Corp Ltd. (IOCL), Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd. (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd. (HPCL) near-term pressure stems from elevated retail auto-fuel losses, which stood at about ₹31 per litre in March 2026 to date. If crude sustains near $80 per barrel with frozen pump prices, losses could average around ₹2.7 per litre, assuming normalised refining cracks, Antique said. However, analysts believes such losses are unlikely to persist beyond two quarters, as government intervention through excise duty cuts or retail price hikes would likely restore margins. With OMC stocks already correcting 15-16 per cent, the brokerage believes most risks are priced in. For GAIL, Antique estimates that under a six-month LNG supply disruption scenario, FY27 Ebitda could fall to about ₹9,600 crore from ₹15,000 crore, reflecting both volume and margin pressures across transmission and trading businesses. Antique noted that GAIL’s stock has fallen about 13 per cent from pre-war levels, compared with only about a 5 per cent implied downside to its target price. "With this sharp correction, valuations have turned attractive," the brokerage said, upgrading the stock to 'Buy' with a target price of ₹172 per share, implying around 16 per cent upside. Among gas companies, the impact is mixed. Petronet LNG Limited may face temporary volume disruptions due to LNG supply constraints, while companies such as GAIL and city gas distributors could see broader pressure from LNG shortages, margin compression and structural headwinds from the gradual phase-out of APM gas allocations. **_\==========_** **_(Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by the analysts in this article are their own and not those of the website or its management. 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