--- title: "War could drive up inflation: DGBAS" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279294394.md" description: "台灣的通脹可能因中東緊張局勢而超過 2%，尤其是油價持續上漲。根據預測，台灣的消費者物價指數 (CPI) 增長預測為 1.68%，GDP 增長預測為 7.71%。不過，DGBAS 表示，台灣經濟仍具韌性，健康的出口表現使得通脹仍有機會保持在中央銀行的 2% 警戒水平以下。" datetime: "2026-03-16T16:05:53.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279294394.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279294394.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279294394.md) --- # War could drive up inflation: DGBAS ## OPTIMISTIC: Inflation still has a chance of remaining below the central bank’s 2 percent alert level, as Taiwan’s economy is resilient with healthy exports, the NDC minister said Taiwan’s inflation could exceed 2 percent this year if oil prices continue to surge amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, prompting the government to reassess its economic outlook, the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) said yesterday. DGBAS Minister Chen Shu-tzu (陳淑姿) told lawmakers at a meeting of the legislature’s Finance Committee that the agency’s earlier growth forecast of 1.68 percent in the consumer price index (CPI) and 7.71 percent for GDP this year did not account for the ongoing Middle East conflict and would need revision, if tensions persist. The previous forecast assumed an average international crude price of US$58.6 per barrel, but prices have surged to top US$100 per barrel as geopolitical tensions intensified, Chen said. Every 10 percent increase in oil prices would raise inflation by 0.24 percentage points and reduce economic growth by 0.12 percentage points, she said. If crude oil climbs beyond US$100 per barrel, representing a 70 to 80 percent jump, the CPI could rise by about 1.7 percentage points, pushing inflation beyond 2 percent, while GDP growth could slow by 0.8 to 0.9 percentage points, she added. The impact would remain limited if the Middle East conflict ends quickly, Chen said, adding that the government has already adopted price-stabilization measures to curb inflation. If the conflict drags on, the Cabinet’s price stabilization task force could introduce additional measures. The DGBAS is scheduled to update its economic forecast in May. However, National Development Council (NDC) Minister Yeh Chun-hsien (葉俊顯) expressed greater optimism, saying that inflation still has a good chance of remaining below the central bank’s 2 percent alert level, while economic growth could exceed the government’s 7.71 percent forecast. Taiwan’s economy remains resilient, supported by robust exports driven by rising capital spending from global cloud service providers, Yeh told a meeting of the legislature’s Economics Committee. Rapid development and the adoption of artificial intelligence technologies could further bolster growth momentum, he said. Amid rising geopolitical tensions, the government has secured sufficient liquefied natural gas supplies for this and next month, and prices for household natural gas would remain unchanged this month, he added. Authorities would coordinate with state-run CPC Corp, Taiwan (中油) to stabilize the prices of essential goods, as well as implement a price-smoothing mechanism for gasoline and diesel, and other measures to cushion price increases, Yeh said. The government has also further reduced commodity taxes on gasoline and diesel to 50 percent, ensured adequate fertilizer supplies, and continued fuel subsidies for the agriculture and fisheries sectors to help keep CPI growth below 2 percent this year, he said. ### 相關股票 - [IEO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IEO.US.md) - [UCO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/UCO.US.md) - [XOP.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/XOP.US.md) - [CRAK.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/CRAK.US.md) - [XES.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/XES.US.md) - [IEZ.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IEZ.US.md) - [BP.UK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/BP.UK.md) - [OIH.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/OIH.US.md) - [BNO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/BNO.US.md) - [VDE.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/VDE.US.md) - [USO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/USO.US.md) - [OXY.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/OXY.US.md) - [EWT.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/EWT.US.md) - [603353.CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/603353.CN.md) - [XLE.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/XLE.US.md) - [IXC.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IXC.US.md) - [FLTW.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/FLTW.US.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [花旗喊 Brent 原油上看 120 美元 油市低估中東風險](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286971527.md) - [瑞銀上調 9 月布蘭特油價預測至 105 美元](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/287239620.md) - [鉅亨速報 - Factset 最新調查：西方石油 (OXY-US) EPS 預估下修至 4.96 元，預估目標價為 65.00 元](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/287251177.md) - [力守 4 萬？明天過後？矽光子將風雲再起？](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/287045071.md) - [郭哲榮：台股 5 月 5 萬點 還有機會嗎？](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/287194522.md)