--- title: "Traders abandon bets on easing this year as Europe warns inflation may hit 6.3%; gold continues to decline for several days" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279820584.md" description: "Against the backdrop of rising energy prices due to the Middle East conflict, bond traders have abandoned bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year and have begun to hedge against rate hikes. The European Central Bank has warned that in extreme cases, inflation could rise to 6.3% by 2027. Gold prices continue to decline due to rising interest rate expectations and a strengthening dollar. The market generally believes that major central banks around the world will prioritize combating inflation rather than supporting economic growth. U.S. and European bond yields have risen across the board, indicating that the possibility of rate cuts has been ruled out" datetime: "2026-03-19T15:58:59.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279820584.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279820584.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279820584.md) --- > 支持的語言: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279820584.md) | [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279820584.md) # Traders abandon bets on easing this year as Europe warns inflation may hit 6.3%; gold continues to decline for several days According to Zhitong Finance APP, against the backdrop of ongoing conflicts in the Middle East driving up energy prices, bond traders are no longer betting on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year and are even starting to hedge against rate hikes. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank warns that under extreme scenarios, inflation could rise to 6.3% by 2027, while gold prices continue to decline under the dual pressure of rising interest rate expectations and a strengthening dollar. The rapid fading of rate cut expectations has become one of the most significant changes in the current market. Influenced by the Bank of England's strong stance of being "prepared to tackle inflation," investors generally believe that major central banks worldwide will prioritize combating inflation over supporting economic growth. Bond yields in the U.S. and Europe have risen across the board, with the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to policy, rising to 3.89%, indicating that the market has largely ruled out the possibility of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. Some traders have even begun to bet on the risk of rate hikes in the coming months. Market participants point out that the current sell-off in the bond market is primarily driven by capital outflows and a lack of buying interest. As the U.S.-Israel war continues to escalate, the market expects the conflict to last for months or even longer, and the transmission effect of rising energy prices on inflation is being re-evaluated. At the same time, the U.S. labor market remains strong, with the latest initial jobless claims unexpectedly declining, further weakening the urgency for the Federal Reserve to support the economy through rate cuts. In Europe, the upward expectations for inflation risks are also significant. In its latest economic forecast, the European Central Bank indicated that under extreme scenarios, such as severe disruptions to energy supply and the conflict continuing until the end of 2026, inflation in the Eurozone could rise to 6.3% in the first quarter of 2027, while the economy would fall into a brief recession. Even under the baseline scenario, inflation in the Eurozone is still expected to be 2.6% this year. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde stated that current inflation risks are clearly skewed to the upside, while economic growth faces downward pressure. The market has begun to bet that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates at least twice by 2026 to address inflation. Against the backdrop of significant adjustments in interest rate expectations, the gold market has faced notable shocks. As rising oil prices drive up inflation expectations, combined with the "zeroing out" of rate cut expectations by the Federal Reserve, the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset has diminished. Since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, gold prices have cumulatively fallen by about 13%, declining for several consecutive days. At the same time, the dollar has strengthened due to safe-haven demand, rising about 2% since the end of February, further suppressing gold prices denominated in dollars. Gold mining stocks are also under pressure. The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index once fell by 10%, reaching its lowest point since December of last year. Previously, this sector had seen significant gains in 2025, but as the market environment reversed, capital began to flow out. Analysts point out that the current market is facing the dual pressure of "falling gold prices + rising energy costs," which may squeeze the profit margins of mining companies. However, some institutions believe that if oil prices stabilize and pressures from interest rates and the dollar ease, gold and related assets still have rebound potential. 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