--- title: "Daiwa Capital Markets: Maintains \"Buy\" rating on Alibaba-W, target price lowered to HKD 192" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279899272.md" description: "Daiwa Capital Markets maintains a \"Buy\" rating on Alibaba-W, with a target price lowered to HKD 192. It is expected that AI and cloud business revenue will exceed USD 100 billion in the next five years, with a compound annual growth rate of 40%. The report points out that Alibaba's Q3 earnings for fiscal year 2026 were below expectations, with revenue increasing by 2% year-on-year to RMB 284.8 billion, and non-GAAP net profit declining by 44% year-on-year. Cloud business revenue growth accelerated to 36%, with external cloud revenue increasing by 35% year-on-year. Management expects that the losses in instant commerce for Q4 will significantly narrow, and the cloud business will continue to grow strongly" datetime: "2026-03-20T07:08:39.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279899272.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279899272.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279899272.md) --- > 支持的語言: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/279899272.md) | [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/279899272.md) # Daiwa Capital Markets: Maintains "Buy" rating on Alibaba-W, target price lowered to HKD 192 According to Zhitong Finance APP, Daiwa Capital Markets has released a research report maintaining a "Buy" rating for Alibaba-W (09988), while lowering its revenue and profit forecasts for the fiscal quarter ending March by 2% and 20%, respectively, implying a year-on-year increase of 4% and a decline of 41%. Additionally, the forecast for the fiscal year 2027 Non-GAAP earnings has been reduced by 5%, indicating that the net profit margin is expected to reach 12%, with the target price lowered from HKD 206 to HKD 192. The report states that Alibaba's earnings for the third quarter of the fiscal year 2026, ending December last year, were below expectations, with revenue growing 2% year-on-year to RMB 284.8 billion, which is 1.7% lower than market expectations. The Non-GAAP net profit was RMB 16.7 billion, a year-on-year decline of 44%, falling short of the bank's forecast, mainly due to increased investment in Taobao's instant e-commerce. The bank pointed out that the company's mainland e-commerce business revenue grew 1% year-on-year to RMB 159.3 billion, with EBITA declining 43% year-on-year and adjusted EBITA profit margin at 25%. Customer Management Revenue (CMR) increased by 1% year-on-year to RMB 102.7 billion, with growth slowing mainly due to weak growth in Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) and the diminishing effect of software service fees. Cloud business revenue accelerated to a growth rate of 36%, with external cloud revenue increasing by 35% year-on-year (compared to 29% in the second fiscal quarter), driven by triple-digit growth in AI-related revenue. The EBITA profit margin remained at 9%. Alibaba's management expects that losses in instant commerce will significantly narrow in the fourth fiscal quarter, with CMR growth and profitability recovering, and cloud business revenue continuing to grow strongly. The group aims for AI and cloud business revenue to exceed USD 100 billion in the next five years, mainly driven by MaaS, equivalent to a compound annual growth rate of 40%, with a target EBITA profit margin of 20%. Based on strong demand and price increases for AI products, the bank has raised its cloud revenue growth forecast for the fourth fiscal quarter and for the fiscal year 2027 ending March next year to 40% and 41%, respectively ### 相關股票 - [BABA-W (09988.HK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/09988.HK.md) - [Alibaba (BABA.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/BABA.US.md) - [Global X E-commerce ETF (EBIZ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/EBIZ.US.md) - [SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/XRT.US.md) - [Krne Csi China Internet (KWEB.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/KWEB.US.md) - [Amplify Online Retail ETF (IBUY.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IBUY.US.md) - [Global X Cloud Computing ETF (CLOU.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/CLOU.US.md) - [KraneShares 2x Long BABA Daily ETF (KBAB.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/KBAB.US.md) - [VanEck Retail ETF (RTH.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/RTH.US.md) - [Direxion FTSE China Bull 3X (YINN.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/YINN.US.md) - [ProShares Online Retail (ONLN.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/ONLN.US.md) - [BABA 2x Long Daily ETF - GraniteShares (BABX.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/BABX.US.md) - [YieldMax BABA Option Income Strategy ETF (BABO.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/BABO.US.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [China's E-Commerce Wars Are Crushing Alibaba's Profits](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279778524.md) - [Alibaba Rises After Announcing AI Price Hike](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279558117.md) - [Alibaba Reportedly Launches New AI Platform That Oversees Multiple Agents](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279412426.md) - [Alibaba has made 470,000 AI chips, admits they’re inferior and may always be](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279869327.md) - [Alibaba Unveils Token Hub To Consolidate AI Efforts](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279272192.md)