--- title: "Countdown to the ultimatum in the Middle East conflict: This week's inflation data becomes a critical period for the Federal Reserve's \"watch and wait\" strategy, as the global economy faces a \"stress test.\"" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280073726.md" description: "The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has led to another decline in the U.S. stock market, with all three major indices turning negative. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by about 1.0%, the S&P 500 dropped by 1.5%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index decreased by 2%. The bond market faced a sell-off, with Treasury yields rising to multi-month highs. U.S. President Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran, demanding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The market is focused on this week's inflation data, which may influence the Federal Reserve's policy direction" datetime: "2026-03-23T00:41:24.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280073726.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/280073726.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280073726.md) --- > 支持的語言: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280073726.md) | [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/280073726.md) # Countdown to the ultimatum in the Middle East conflict: This week's inflation data becomes a critical period for the Federal Reserve's "watch and wait" strategy, as the global economy faces a "stress test." According to the Zhitong Finance APP, due to the ongoing Middle East war and its impact on the global energy economy, the US stock market fell again last week, causing the three major US stock indices to turn negative for the year. Data shows that the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 1.0% last Friday, the S&P 500 dropped 1.5%, with both indices down more than 5% year-to-date; the technology-heavy NASDAQ Composite Index fell 2% last Friday, with a cumulative decline of about 7% this year. The bond market also faced selling pressure as traders began to anticipate that rising oil prices could bring new inflationary shocks, leading the Federal Reserve to potentially shift towards interest rate hikes this year. After falling for the third consecutive week, US Treasury yields rose to multi-month highs— the two-year Treasury yield increased by 18 basis points to 3.90% last week; the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield surged 13 basis points to 4.38%, the highest level since late July last year. As the conflict in the Middle East enters its fourth week with no signs of easing, global markets remain under pressure. Last Saturday night, US President Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran, demanding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, or else face strikes on its power plants. Iran responded by stating that any such attack would lead to the indefinite closure of the waterway and strikes on US and Israeli energy infrastructure in the region, indicating that both sides risk escalating the conflict. Additionally, reports indicate that the Trump administration has begun planning for "peace talks" with Iran, conducting preliminary consultations through a third party. US officials believe the conflict will continue for another two to three weeks. Meanwhile, Trump's advisory team aims to end the conflict through diplomatic means. The US demands that any agreement must include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the handling of Iran's high-enriched uranium, as well as long-term commitments regarding Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missile projects, and its support for regional "proxies." **In a relatively quiet week for economic data, market focus may center on any clues regarding inflation and labor market conditions, especially after Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's more hawkish remarks following last Wednesday's interest rate decision.** The Michigan University short-term and long-term inflation expectations data, as well as market sentiment indicators to be released this Friday, will be key. Investors will also gain insights into the industrial economy through S&P Global data on Tuesday and Kansas City Fed data on Friday. In terms of corporate earnings, Jefferies (JEF.US) will report earnings on Wednesday, and Carnival Cruise Line (CCL.US) will report earnings on Friday, which will be highlights in this relatively calm earnings season. **Oil prices remain above $100** As the Middle East war enters its fourth week, it has shattered Wall Street and the public's hopes that this conflict—and the transportation through the Strait of Hormuz—would be measured in days rather than weeks or months. As of the time of writing, Brent crude oil rose 0.29% to $106.72 per barrel. Last Thursday, oil prices briefly fell after Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated at a press conference that Israel would assist the US in reopening the nearly stalled transportation through the Strait of Hormuz. US and Israeli leaders also indicated that their military would remove energy infrastructure from the target list. However, shortly thereafter, oil prices returned to their original levels The CEO of Qatar Energy stated last Wednesday that it may take years to repair the attack on its largest liquefied natural gas terminal in Ras Laffan. Last Friday, Trump said, "We can talk, but I don't want a ceasefire." Due to the escalation of conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is currently almost at a standstill, with over 150 oil tankers and cargo ships forced to anchor outside the strait. JP Morgan warned that the closure of the strait is not just a simple inflationary fluctuation, but a structural shock that could lead to a global economic stagnation. Deutsche Bank's scenario analysis shows that if the blockade leads to substantial damage to energy infrastructure, oil prices could surge to $200 per barrel, turning theoretical projections into reality. The head of commodity and derivatives research at Bank of America also warned that if the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues for months, the global economy will inevitably slide into a deep recession, with Brent and WTI crude prices likely soaring above $200 per barrel. Paul Sankey, head of Sankey Research, wrote in a recent report to clients: "What you break, you must pay for." He succinctly summarized the current situation and added, "This is a frightening issue in the short term... Either Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, or the U.S. does." As Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, stated in a post on March 16, the conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran will revolve around a decisive confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz, and the outcome will affect far more than just oil prices; it will determine whether the U.S.-led global order can survive. In a lengthy post on the X platform, Dalio wrote, "Everything depends on who controls the Strait of Hormuz." He believes that if Iran still has the ability to control the strait and can even negotiate who can pass through it, then regardless of how the conflict is resolved, the U.S. will be seen as having lost this war. On March 19 local time, France, the UK, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Japan issued a joint statement announcing their readiness to take appropriate measures to ensure the safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Canada soon joined and issued the same joint statement. The South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated on the evening of the 20th that the South Korean government has decided to join the "Joint Statement on the Strait of Hormuz" issued by the seven countries, including the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, and Canada. As the current focus of the conflict, both the U.S. and Iran have shown great concern for the Strait of Hormuz. Reports indicate that the U.S. military is currently increasing its troop presence in the Middle East, with the buildup centered around the Strait of Hormuz. It has been reported that three U.S. warships, including the amphibious assault ship USS Boxer, and about 2,500 Marines have departed from San Diego, California, heading to the Middle East. Previously, the U.S. Department of Defense had dispatched the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli from Japan to carry the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit to the Middle East. It has been disclosed that this troop increase will provide Trump with more military options, including launching operations to "clear" the Strait of Hormuz, which would require deploying air and naval forces to the Iranian coastline. Additionally, the Trump administration is also considering deploying ground troops to the oil export "lifeline" of Iran, Khark Island, with the aim of seizing the island as leverage to force Iran to restore passage through the Strait of Hormuz In response to the U.S. military's plan to seize Hark Island, Iranian military sources stated that if the U.S. launches "military aggression" against Hark Island, it will face an "unprecedented counterattack" since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran. **The Federal Reserve Holds Steady, But Rate Cut Expectations Change** The Federal Reserve decided last week to keep interest rates unchanged, a result that largely met market expectations. However, the cautious tone of the Fed's policy is prompting Wall Street to reassess the timeline for rate cuts. During a press conference last Wednesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged that the oil crisis triggered by the Middle East war could push inflation higher. Rising energy prices not only affect overall inflation but, if sustained long enough, could further elevate so-called "core inflation" through increases in the prices of goods and services. This has forced the Fed to reevaluate the previously considered gradual shift towards rate cuts—now this outlook is redefined as a longer pause, and if price pressures accelerate again, a return to rate hikes cannot be ruled out. When discussing the next policy meeting, Powell stated that the data released over the next six weeks will be "very important for economic performance and changes in outlook," but for now, "all we can really do is observe and wait." Data shows that bond traders currently estimate a 50% probability that the Fed will raise rates by October. This assessment represents a remarkable reversal from market expectations before the outbreak of war and stands in stark contrast to the Fed's latest "dot plot," which anticipated one rate cut this year and another in 2027. **AI Enters the "Performance Speaks" Stage** Meanwhile, do not overlook the AI trading theme. Last Tuesday, Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA (NVDA.US), announced at the annual GTC conference that the company would achieve $1 trillion in revenue solely from the Grace Blackwell and Vera Rubin chips. However, this news was not enough to stop the tech sector's sell-off. NVIDIA fell approximately 4.1% over the week, while the broader tech sector (IGV) dropped 1.4% over five trading days, with a year-to-date decline exceeding 20%. Micron Technology (MU.US) announced last week plans to increase its capital expenditures by $5 billion for fiscal year 2026, but similarly failed to impress investors. Jefferies technology analyst Jeffrey Favuzza wrote in a client report last Thursday: "This is the second time (the other being NVIDIA) that astonishing performance data has been treated by the market as a 'buy the rumor, sell the news' event." In other words, even impressive data is increasingly struggling to support the already high valuation levels of leading tech companies. According to Neha Khoda, a credit analyst at Bank of America, AI has officially entered the "performance speaks" stage, meaning "the positive impacts of AI are increasingly being offset by its negative impacts." She stated, "From a corporate fundamentals perspective, we may be at a turning point driven by AI." ### 相關股票 - [Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQM.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/QQQM.US.md) - [Pro UltrPro Dow30 (UDOW.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/UDOW.US.md) - [SPDR S&P 500 (SPY.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SPY.US.md) - [Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/QQQ.US.md) - [Pro UltrPro S&Pro 500 (UPRO.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/UPRO.US.md) - [Proshares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/TQQQ.US.md) - [iShares Core S&P 500 (IVV.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IVV.US.md) - [Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index ETF (ONEQ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/ONEQ.US.md) - [NASDAQ Composite Index (.IXIC.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/.IXIC.US.md) - [VG S&P 500 (VOO.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/VOO.US.md) - [Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/.DJI.US.md) - [Guggenheim DJIA Ave Div (DJD.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/DJD.US.md) - [SPDR Djia (DIA.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/DIA.US.md) - [Pacer Cash COWZ 100-Nasdaq100RotatorETF (QQWZ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/QQWZ.US.md) - [ProShares Ultra QQQ (QLD.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/QLD.US.md) - [S&P 500 (.SPX.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [NASDAQ-100 (.NDX.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/.NDX.US.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [US futures push higher so far today, technical breakdown on hold for now](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280418894.md) - [ROI-Why $100 oil won't break the American consumer: McGeever](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280166425.md) - [Trump Suspends Strikes on Iranian Energy Sites, Lifting US Equity Futures Pre-Bell](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280165303.md) - [Kemp signs bill suspending Georgia state gas tax amid Iran war price spike](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279979264.md) - [The Iran war spills over into the U.S. economy: Inflation rises and growth slows.](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280338586.md)