--- title: "Star gold semi-new shares face the unlocking of 170 million shares, with a drop of over 30% at high levels, raising concerns about insufficient recovery. Experts advise on strategies for bottom-fishing in gold prices｜Star Market Strategy" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280220332.md" description: "The star gold semi-new stock ZIJIN GOLD INTL (2259) will face the unlocking of 174 million shares next Monday. Recently, gold prices have significantly retraced, and the stock price has fallen over 36% from its high. Analysts hold a wait-and-see attitude towards this stock, believing there is still downward pressure in the short term, but are optimistic in the medium to long term. Liang Weimin pointed out that the stock's price-to-earnings ratio reaches 23.7 times, which is not attractive compared to peers, and suggests observing the situation after the unlocking before considering buying" datetime: "2026-03-23T22:05:36.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280220332.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/280220332.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280220332.md) --- > 支持的語言: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280220332.md) | [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/280220332.md) # Star gold semi-new shares face the unlocking of 170 million shares, with a drop of over 30% at high levels, raising concerns about insufficient recovery. Experts advise on strategies for bottom-fishing in gold prices｜Star Market Strategy Gold prices have recently experienced a significant correction, with a low of $4,098 seen on Monday (23rd), erasing nearly 30% of the gains made this year and resulting in a decline of over 5%. This has also led to sharp drops in several gold-related stocks listed in Hong Kong. Among them, the star semi-new stock favored by retail investors—ZIJIN GOLD INTL (2259)—closed at HKD 169.9 on Monday, having fallen over 36% from this year's high of HKD 268. Additionally, the stock will face the unlocking of 174 million shares starting next Monday (30th). Will the stock price continue to decline? Or is all the bad news already out? Hong Kong Stock Analysts Association director Wen Jie and Liang Weimin, investment director of GaoFu Financial Group, both expressed a wait-and-see attitude towards ZIJIN GOLD INTL in an interview with Sing Tao Daily, believing that gold prices still face downward pressure in the short term, but are relatively optimistic in the medium to long term. ## Semi-new stocks may be overhyped; wait for the unlocking ZIJIN GOLD INTL will face a share unlocking next Monday. Wen Jie predicts that the stock will only face moderate price pressure. He explained that in a market where investors are reluctant to buy gold, the stock has significantly retreated from its highs. Unless investors are further pessimistic about the future, they may not be willing to sell at this level, so he suggests that investors pay attention to the market reaction in the coming days. Liang Weimin, on the other hand, holds a more cautious stance and frankly stated that he would not choose ZIJIN GOLD INTL at this time. He pointed out that the stock was only spun off from Zijin Mining (2899) in September last year and is still considered a semi-new stock. The stock price has not truly undergone the test of a significant adjustment in gold prices, and given its substantial outperformance compared to peers since listing, there are concerns about excessive speculation in the market. Even though it has corrected over 30% from its highs, it may not necessarily be cheap enough. From a valuation perspective, ZIJIN GOLD INTL currently has a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.7 times based on the full-year earnings forecast for 2025, which is not particularly attractive compared to its peers. Liang Weimin provided comparative data: Lingbao Gold (3330) has a forecasted P/E ratio of about 15.2 times; Shandong Gold (1787) has a forecasted P/E ratio of about 19.7 times; and Zhaojin Mining (1818) has a P/E ratio of 31.7 times. Liang Weimin believes that ZIJIN GOLD INTL has short-term concerns regarding stock unlocking, so it is better to observe the situation after the unlocking before considering any purchases. ## Hope for gold prices to hold above $4,000; emphasize that the long-term peak is not yet in sight Looking ahead to gold prices, Wen Jie indicated that they are still in a weak position, with an initial hope to hold above the $4,000 per ounce mark. However, the trend still needs to closely monitor the situation in the Middle East, oil price movements, and market expectations regarding monetary policy. Nevertheless, he emphasized that the current adjustment is a short-term phenomenon, stating, "From a six-month to one-year perspective, I still believe that gold prices have not yet peaked." The key turning point lies in whether oil prices can decline; once inflation concerns ease and the market rekindles expectations for interest rate cuts, the U.S. dollar will weaken, which will greatly benefit gold prices. Wen Jie suggests that investors wait for clarity in the Middle East situation and stabilization in gold prices before gradually accumulating. ## "De-dollarization" is not gone; buy gold in three batches Liang Weimin stated that the unclear situation in the Middle East continues to lead funds to flow into the U.S. dollar for safety, which is unfavorable for gold prices in the short term. At the same time, the market is concerned about increased inflation risks due to high oil prices, leading to expectations that central banks will not only refrain from cutting interest rates but may even consider raising them, which could further pressure gold prices However, he believes that "de-dollarization" will not disappear due to war, and may even accelerate. He explained that the United States' tough stance in wartime has harmed the economies and inflation of its allies, and the surprise attacks demonstrate its disregard for international regulations, which will prompt the world to accelerate the diversification of foreign exchange reserves and reduce excessive reliance on the dollar. Liang Weimin suggested that investors consider buying in three stages: the first purchase at a gold price of $4,100, the second at $3,900, and the third at $3,700. ## Purely Betting on a Rebound, Physical ETF is the First Choice If investors are optimistic about the gold sector, Liang Weimin suggested diversifying purchases of Lingbao Gold, Zhaojin Mining, and Shandong Gold, or considering buying global gold mining stock ETFs like GDX. He also mentioned that if investors purely feel that the gold price has dropped enough and want to bet on a rebound, he is more inclined to recommend physical gold ETFs, as gold mining stocks are influenced by stock market fluctuations, market sentiment, extraction costs, and policies from various countries, and may not fully follow the gold price trend. ## Preference for Companies with Gold and Copper, Zijin Mining is Better Wen Jie frankly stated that he would directly choose the "mother stock" Zijin Mining, as it holds both gold and copper businesses, saying, "Having gold and copper, I think this is the best choice." In fact, Zijin Gold International was spun off from Zijin Mining and listed in September 2025. After the spin-off, Zijin Mining remains the largest shareholder. The main difference between the two lies in their business scope; Zijin Gold's business is entirely focused on gold, while Zijin Mining, in addition to obtaining gold-related business through its holding in Zijin Gold, is also involved in other mineral businesses such as copper, zinc, and silver. 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