--- title: "Is the rise in interest rate expectations a precautionary measure or an overreaction? The market and mainstream views are now at odds" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280341565.md" description: "Against the backdrop of rising oil prices due to the situation in the Middle East, market expectations for interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have changed. Although investors are betting on an increased likelihood of rate hikes, most economists believe that the chances of a hike in the short term are low. Federal Reserve officials are cautious, expecting no rate hikes this year, and are instead leaning towards rate cuts. Analysts point out that rate hikes would only be justified if energy prices remain high and the labor market strengthens significantly, which is not the case currently" datetime: "2026-03-24T15:25:03.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280341565.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/280341565.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280341565.md) --- > 支持的語言: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280341565.md) | [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/280341565.md) # Is the rise in interest rate expectations a precautionary measure or an overreaction? The market and mainstream views are now at odds Against the backdrop of rising oil prices due to the situation in the Middle East, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy path have undergone subtle changes. Although investors have begun to bet that the Federal Reserve may shift towards raising interest rates, most economists and policymakers still believe that the likelihood of rate hikes in the short term is low. According to data obtained by Zhitong Finance APP, as of March 19, the implied probability of a rate hike in April based on federal funds futures rose to 6% and has remained in positive territory. This is the first time since December 2023 that the market believes the likelihood of a rate hike at the next meeting is higher than that of a rate cut. ![WeChat Screenshot_20260324111455.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260324/1774365309874410.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) However, analysts generally believe that this change reflects more of the market's uncertainty regarding geopolitical shocks and rising oil prices, rather than an imminent policy shift. Citigroup economists pointed out that while soaring oil prices pose new inflation risks, they may also drag down economic growth and put pressure on employment. From a policy perspective, Federal Reserve officials remain overall cautious. In the latest economic forecasts, none of the 19 policymakers expect a rate hike this year, with most leaning towards further rate cuts. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also stated that although the possibility of a rate hike was discussed in the meeting, the vast majority of officials did not view it as a baseline scenario. Officials also emphasized that the impact of oil price shocks on inflation may be temporary, and adjustments in monetary policy typically take a long time to transmit to the economy. This means that if a rate hike is implemented hastily, it may only have a suppressive effect after inflation pressures have already eased. Analysts pointed out that a rate hike would only be reasonable if energy prices remain high and transmit to a broader range of goods and services, while the labor market significantly strengthens and wage pressures rise. However, the current situation does not meet this condition. In fact, the Federal Reserve's assessment of the labor market remains cautious. Official forecasts indicate that the unemployment rate may remain around 4.4% this year, and several officials are still concerned about insufficient resilience in the labor market. Additionally, U.S. employment is expected to show weak performance before early 2026; although there was some stabilization at the end of last year, non-farm employment unexpectedly declined in February this year, highlighting potential risks. Compared to the oil price shocks triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, when inflation was already high and the labor market was tight, the Federal Reserve quickly initiated a rate hike cycle; the current inflation and employment environment is clearly different, with corporate labor demand no longer strong and supply chain pressures relatively mild. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve retains policy flexibility internally. Some officials have indicated that multiple rate cuts may occur in the future, and the possibility of a rate hike under specific conditions cannot be ruled out. On the market side, changes in interest rate futures are also interpreted as "hedging trades." Analysts pointed out that some trades are not direct predictions of a rate hike but are risk hedges to guard against the possibility of uncontrolled inflation in extreme scenarios. In addition, the policy outlook is also influenced by political factors. If Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve chair nominee put forward by Trump, is confirmed, his previous emphasis on the need for rate cuts as soon as possible may further reduce the likelihood of a rate hike ### 相關股票 - [VG Financial (VFH.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/VFH.US.md) - [Sprott JR Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SGDJ.US.md) - [iShares Gold Trust (IAU.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IAU.US.md) - [NASDAQ Composite Index (.IXIC.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/.IXIC.US.md) - [GLOBAL X Gold Explorers (GOEX.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/GOEX.US.md) - [First Trust NASDAQ-100 Equal Weighted (QQEW.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/QQEW.US.md) - [Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index ETF (ONEQ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/ONEQ.US.md) - [Sprott GLD Miners Etf (SGDM.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SGDM.US.md) - [Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/QQQ.US.md) - [YieldMax Gold Miners Opt Inc Strgy ETF (GDXY.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/GDXY.US.md) - [Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQM.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/QQQM.US.md) - [Us Gbl GLD & Met (GOAU.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/GOAU.US.md) - [Roundhill Gold Miners Weeklypay ETF (GDXW.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/GDXW.US.md) - [VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/GDX.US.md) - [SPDR Gold Minishares (GLDM.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/GLDM.US.md) - [Abrdn Gold ETF Trust (SGOL.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SGOL.US.md) - [Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 2X (NUGT.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/NUGT.US.md) - [iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners (RING.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/RING.US.md) - [ISHRS S&P Glb It (IXN.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IXN.US.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - ['No Hire, No Fire' Economy Rolls On With Jobless Claims Back Near Record Lows](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/279789987.md) - [Central banks are bracing for higher inflation](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280326111.md) - [ROI-Why $100 oil won't break the American consumer: McGeever](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280166425.md) - [Maridea Wealth Management LLC Decreases Stake in Invesco QQQ $QQQ](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280136428.md) - [Fed's Goolsbee says inflation progress needed to cut rates this year, PBS reports](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280382158.md)