---
title: "澳大利亞儲備銀行警告稱，全球石油衝擊可能會推高通脹預期"
type: "News"
locale: "zh-HK"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280536771.md"
description: "澳大利亞儲備銀行警告稱，伊朗衝突帶來的全球供應衝擊可能會加劇通貨膨脹和通貨膨脹預期，而澳大利亞目前正面臨產能壓力。助理行長克里斯·肯特指出，長期衝突可能導致更高的利率和更加緊縮的政策立場。經濟學家預測，通貨膨脹可能很快超過 5.0%，這促使市場預期今年至少還會有兩次加息。澳大利亞儲備銀行旨在在這些挑戰中管理通貨膨脹和就業"
datetime: "2026-03-25T23:00:55.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280536771.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/280536771.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280536771.md)
generator: "portal-rs"
---

# 澳大利亞儲備銀行警告稱，全球石油衝擊可能會推高通脹預期

By James Glynn

SYDNEY--The global supply shock resulting from the war in Iran could pose a risk to inflation and longer term inflation expectations at a time when there are continuing capacity pressures in Australia, according to the Reserve bank of Australia. 

"This could both push short-run neutral \[interest\] rates higher and necessitate a more restrictive stance of policy," said Chris Kent, assistant governor at the Reserve Bank of Australia. 

The longer the conflict persists, the larger the economic effect will be, and the greater the risk of a material repricing of assets, Kent said. 

"A negative supply shock pushes up prices and leads to weaker economic activity, making us all poorer. Central banks cannot change that," he said. 

"But they can ensure that the initial rise in prices does not lead to a rise in longer term inflationary expectations and extended inflationary pressures," he added. 

The comments come as some economists forecast that inflation will rise above 5.0% in coming months and money market traders price in at least another two interest rate increases this year. 

Australia entered the oil-price shock with inflation already too high. The RBA raised interest rates in February and March but said the policy tightening wasn't due to global supply shocks. 

"We will continue to assess the countervailing forces operating on the economy, including any tightening of financial conditions, or increase in inflation expectations associated with the conflict, so that the board can set monetary policy to achieve low and stable inflation and full employment over the medium term," Kent added. 

Write to James Glynn at james.glynn@wsj.com 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 25, 2026 18:55 ET (22:55 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

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