<h2><strong>引言</strong></h2>
<p>TradingKey - 隨着銅在全球宏觀經濟敍事和商品市場中變得越來越重要，銅從一種週期性工業金屬轉變為與電氣化、人工智能和基礎設施韌性相關的戰略資源的過程已經發生。儘管資金在工業商品之間不斷輪動，我們認為銅是進入 2026 年時最佳的投資機會之一，原因在於供應減少、需求持續以及整體投資者對銅的結構性看漲情緒。</p>
<h2><strong>背景：從週期性金屬到戰略資產</strong></h2>
<p>當前銅價的上漲是由於其他因素，而非一般經濟的短期波動。儘管經歷了多次極端價格波動，銅價仍處於歷史高位附近。這表明銅市場的參與者開始將長期的供需失衡吸收到他們的交易頭寸中。</p>
<p>隨着機構改變其資金流動模式，例如，他們多年來一直將資金投入貴金屬（如黃金和白銀），現在資金開始從貴金屬流向銅，因為銅市場背後的基本故事與全球經濟的需求更加緊密相關，而不僅僅是防禦性佈局。這一轉變表明機構投資者對總回報資產的看法正在演變（假設他們將 “避險” 作為回報的風格定義）：即將 “增長導向” 的商品視為與 “避險” 商品分開的類別。</p>
<h2><strong>結構性供應短缺成為主要驅動因素</strong></h2>
<p>銅行業前景的最重要驅動因素是供需之間持續擴大且日益增長的差距。根據行業估計，隨着礦山中斷、礦石品位下降和有限的新項目管道，精煉銅市場將在 2026 年開始收緊。</p>
<p>例如，即使在（如果）有增長的情況下，這種增長也在穩步放緩。由於限制上游生產和冶煉盈利能力的問題，精煉量預計將顯著放緩。TC 和 RC 的崩潰（在此定義為 T/C 和 R/C，接近於零）是全球濃縮物供應持續收緊的證據。</p>
<p>展望未來：結構性問題的性質隨着時間的推移變得愈加明顯；新銅礦的開發時間表非常漫長，資本密集度越來越高，監管約束也在逐漸增加。因此，即使銅價在較長時間內顯著高於當前水平，也不太可能在短期內釋放出足夠的新銅供應，從而維持當前的短缺狀況。</p>
<h2><strong>需求擴張正被人工智能和電氣化重新定義</strong></h2>
<p>圍繞不同結構形式（例如建築和製造）的供需動態不再頻繁或恆定；它們已轉變為受到電氣化和通過人工智能技術的數字基礎設施等額外因素的影響。利用人工智能技術的設施主要由數據存儲地點（即數據中心）組成。因此，這類設施將佔據大量新增銅需求，並且主要由銅基電氣網絡、先進的機械冷卻/處理技術以及穩定的可用能源（即銅密集型）組成。此外，人工智能技術還將創造出額外的基荷銅需求，這些需求不易受到短期經濟波動的影響。</p>
<p>此外，全球範圍內大規模電氣化的趨勢依然存在。發電（即電網）、可再生能源（即太陽能電池板和風力渦輪機）、電動汽車（即電動汽車充電站）或工業自動化將繼續需要大量銅。由於中國將繼續消費全球銅消費的最大份額，而發達國家也在迅速升級各自的電力系統以符合可再生能源的相關法規，因此整體全球需求增長似乎具有地理多樣性和結構性嵌入性。</p>
<h2><strong>機構輪動信號市場領導力的轉變</strong></h2>
<p>機構資本在商品之間的輪動是另一個關鍵趨勢。儘管黃金經歷了大幅上漲，許多投資者正在將資本重新分配到銅上，受益於供應限制，而非貨幣政策。</p>
<p>投資者在配置銅時也採取了更長期的視角。銅的未來價格表現與發展中經濟體、新技術來源和基礎設施發展關係更為密切，而不僅僅是作為對抗通貨膨脹或地緣政治風險的對沖。因此，尋求接觸長期增長主題的資本被吸引到銅市場。</p>
<p>價格走勢支持這一轉變。即使在調整期之後，銅仍然保持強勁的技術指標，包括更高的低點和持續的支撐區域，表明銅的積累而非分配。</p>
<h2><strong>風險與分歧點</strong></h2>
<p>中國經濟可能導致對銅的需求低於預期；這也將推遲新緊縮週期的時機。</p>
<p>此外，目前物理市場與金融市場在銅的定位之間存在脱節。儘管存在供應挑戰，利率、匯率和投機等宏觀經濟變量可能導致銅價非常波動。</p>
<p>在供應方面，新項目通常會獲得批准，或者提取過程中的技術進步將有助於比預期更早地消除一些供應限制；然而，目前沒有跡象表明這些情況會在短期內發生。</p>
<h2><strong>市場影響：投資者應如何佈局</strong></h2>
<p>對於那些投資銅的投資者來説，現在正從主要的週期性交易轉變為更具結構性的配置主題。關鍵在於將你的投資暴露與推動這一市場的基本催化因素對齊。</p>
<p>在確定哪些銅生產商最有可能從持續的銅短缺中受益時，尋找那些擁有高質量資產、低成本結構和長期儲備的生產商。此外，未來有供應增長潛力的公司——特別是那些正在進行大規模項目的公司——將為投資者提供利用價格上漲的槓桿；儘管這樣的投資也會面臨更大的執行風險。</p>
<p>除了股票，其他形式的銅投資需要仔細監測 TC/RC 等指標以及其他長期供應合同和庫存，這可能提供比現貨價格更具可操作性的信息。</p>
<p>最後，銅將在全球經濟中扮演越來越重要的角色。隨着電氣化的加速和人工智能基礎設施的擴展，銅可能在能源轉型和數字經濟中變得至關重要。因此，目前的銅週期可能不會最終以峯值價格為特徵；相反，它可能代表銅的長期結構性重新定價的非常早期階段。</p>
<p>瞭解更多</p>

南方銅業

有色金屬

<p>銅市場正在演變，從週期性的工業金屬轉變為與電氣化和人工智能相關的戰略資源。預計到 2026 年，由於礦山中斷和監管限制，供應短缺將加劇，而需求則受到人工智能技術和大規模電氣化的推動。機構投資者正在將資本從貴金屬重新配置到銅，認為銅是一種長期增長資產，而非避險資產。這一轉變表明市場對銅持樂觀態度，儘管中國經濟可能存在風險，但強勁的技術指標仍在支持這一趨勢</p>

<h2><strong>Introduction</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>引言</strong></h2>
</div><p>TradingKey - As copper becomes more of a focal point in the global macroeconomic narrative and commodities market, the transition from copper as a cyclical industrial metal to being viewed as a strategic resource tied to electrification, artificial intelligence, and infrastructure resilience has occurred. While money continues to rotate among industrial commodities, we believe copper is one of the best investment opportunities heading into 2026 due to decrease in supply, sustained demand, and overall investor sentiment on copper being bullish in a structural sense.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TradingKey - 隨着銅在全球宏觀經濟敍事和商品市場中變得越來越重要，銅從一種週期性工業金屬轉變為與電氣化、人工智能和基礎設施韌性相關的戰略資源的過程已經發生。儘管資金在工業商品之間不斷輪動，我們認為銅是進入 2026 年時最佳的投資機會之一，原因在於供應減少、需求持續以及整體投資者對銅的結構性看漲情緒。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Background: From Cyclical Metal to Strategic Asset</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>背景：從週期性金屬到戰略資產</strong></h2>
</div><p>The current rise in copper prices is due to factors other than short-term moves in the general economy. The price of copper has been at or near all-time high levels despite numerous instances of extreme price movement. This is suggesting that participants in the copper market are starting to absorb a longer-term supply/demand imbalance into their trading positions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當前銅價的上漲是由於其他因素，而非一般經濟的短期波動。儘管經歷了多次極端價格波動，銅價仍處於歷史高位附近。這表明銅市場的參與者開始將長期的供需失衡吸收到他們的交易頭寸中。</p>
</div><p>As Institutions change their flow patterns, an example of that is how they have been placing money into precious metals (such as gold and silver) for many years and now money is starting to flow from precious metals into copper, because the underlying story behind the copper market is being more closely matched up to how much the world's economy is needing as opposed to merely defensive positioning. This shift is an indication of an evolution of how Institutional investors are viewing total return assets (assuming they use &#34;safe-haven&#34; as the style definition of return): i.e., view &#34;growth-oriented&#34; commodities as separate from &#34;safe-haven&#34; commodity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着機構改變其資金流動模式，例如，他們多年來一直將資金投入貴金屬（如黃金和白銀），現在資金開始從貴金屬流向銅，因為銅市場背後的基本故事與全球經濟的需求更加緊密相關，而不僅僅是防禦性佈局。這一轉變表明機構投資者對總回報資產的看法正在演變（假設他們將 “避險” 作為回報的風格定義）：即將 “增長導向” 的商品視為與 “避險” 商品分開的類別。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Structural Supply Deficits Are Becoming the Dominant Driver</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>結構性供應短缺成為主要驅動因素</strong></h2>
</div><p>The most significant driver behind the copper industry’s outlook is a continuing and growing gap in supply and demand. Based on industry estimates, a transition to a tightening of the refined copper market will occur by 2026 as mine disruption, decreasing ore grades, and limited additional project pipelines restrict refined copper output.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>銅行業前景的最重要驅動因素是供需之間持續擴大且日益增長的差距。根據行業估計，隨着礦山中斷、礦石品位下降和有限的新項目管道，精煉銅市場將在 2026 年開始收緊。</p>
</div><p>As an example, even when (if) there’s growth, that growth has steadily slowed. Refining volume is projected to slow significantly due to issues limiting upstream production and smelter profitability. The collapse of (TC) and (RC) -here defined as T/Cs, R/Cs and are at approximately zero- is evidence of the continued tightening of concentrate supply globally.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，即使在（如果）有增長的情況下，這種增長也在穩步放緩。由於限制上游生產和冶煉盈利能力的問題，精煉量預計將顯著放緩。TC 和 RC 的崩潰（在此定義為 T/C 和 R/C，接近於零）是全球濃縮物供應持續收緊的證據。</p>
</div><p>Looking forward: the nature of the structural problem becomes increasingly evident over time; the timelines for development of new copper mines are very long, capital intensity increasingly high and regulatory constraints continue to gradually increase. Thus, even if copper prices remain significantly above current levels for an extended period it is unlikely to unlock enough new copper supply in the near term, thereby maintaining/don't wish to wait for the continuation of the current situation in terms of deficit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望未來：結構性問題的性質隨着時間的推移變得愈加明顯；新銅礦的開發時間表非常漫長，資本密集度越來越高，監管約束也在逐漸增加。因此，即使銅價在較長時間內顯著高於當前水平，也不太可能在短期內釋放出足夠的新銅供應，從而維持當前的短缺狀況。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Demand Expansion Is Being Redefined by AI and Electrification</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>需求擴張正被人工智能和電氣化重新定義</strong></h2>
</div><p>Supply and demand dynamics that revolve around different forms of structure (e.g., construction and manufacturing) are no longer frequent or constant in nature; they have shifted to being influenced by additional factors such as electrification and digital infrastructure through AI technologies. Facilities utilizing AI technologies consist predominantly of data storage locations (i.e., data centres). Therefore, these types of facilities will account for substantial incremental copper demand and also consist of primarily copper-based electrical networks, state-of-the-art mechanical cooling/treatment technologies, and a consistent supply of available energy (i.e., copper-intensive). In addition, AI technologies will also create additional forms of baseload copper demand that are not vulnerable to short-term economic fluctuations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圍繞不同結構形式（例如建築和製造）的供需動態不再頻繁或恆定；它們已轉變為受到電氣化和通過人工智能技術的數字基礎設施等額外因素的影響。利用人工智能技術的設施主要由數據存儲地點（即數據中心）組成。因此，這類設施將佔據大量新增銅需求，並且主要由銅基電氣網絡、先進的機械冷卻/處理技術以及穩定的可用能源（即銅密集型）組成。此外，人工智能技術還將創造出額外的基荷銅需求，這些需求不易受到短期經濟波動的影響。</p>
</div><p>Moreover, the trend toward mass electrification remains intact across the globe. Significant amounts of copper will continue to be required for power generation (i.e., power grid), renewable energy (i.e., solar panels and wind turbines), electric vehicles (i.e., EV charging stations), or industrial automation. Since China will continue to consume the largest share of global copper consumption, and as developed countries rapidly upgrade their respective electrical systems to comply with regulations regarding renewable energy, there appears to be both geographical diversification and structural embeddedness to overall global demand growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，全球範圍內大規模電氣化的趨勢依然存在。發電（即電網）、可再生能源（即太陽能電池板和風力渦輪機）、電動汽車（即電動汽車充電站）或工業自動化將繼續需要大量銅。由於中國將繼續消費全球銅消費的最大份額，而發達國家也在迅速升級各自的電力系統以符合可再生能源的相關法規，因此整體全球需求增長似乎具有地理多樣性和結構性嵌入性。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Institutional Rotation Signals a Shift in Market Leadership</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>機構輪動信號市場領導力的轉變</strong></h2>
</div><p>Institutional capital rotating through commodities is another key trend. While gold has experienced large upside, many investors are re-allocating their capital to copper, with benefits from supply constraints rather than monetary policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>機構資本在商品之間的輪動是另一個關鍵趨勢。儘管黃金經歷了大幅上漲，許多投資者正在將資本重新分配到銅上，受益於供應限制，而非貨幣政策。</p>
</div><p>Investors are also taking a longer-term view when allocating to copper. Copper’s future price performance is much more associated with developing economies, new sources of technology, and infrastructure development as opposed to being primarily a hedge against inflation or geopolitical risk. As such, capital seeking exposure to longer-duration growth themes are attracted to copper.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者在配置銅時也採取了更長期的視角。銅的未來價格表現與發展中經濟體、新技術來源和基礎設施發展關係更為密切，而不僅僅是作為對抗通貨膨脹或地緣政治風險的對沖。因此，尋求接觸長期增長主題的資本被吸引到銅市場。</p>
</div><p>The price action supports this transition. Even after periods of correction, copper has continued to have strong technical indicators, including higher lows and continued support areas indicating the accumulation of copper rather than the distribution of copper.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>價格走勢支持這一轉變。即使在調整期之後，銅仍然保持強勁的技術指標，包括更高的低點和持續的支撐區域，表明銅的積累而非分配。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Risks and Points of Divergence</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>風險與分歧點</strong></h2>
</div><p>Chinese economy would lead to weaker demand for copper than anticipated; this would also push back the timing of a new tightening cycle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國經濟可能導致對銅的需求低於預期；這也將推遲新緊縮週期的時機。</p>
</div><p>In addition, there is currently a disconnect between what physical markets are saying and how the financial markets position themselves around copper. Even though there are supply challenges, macroeconomic variables like interest rates, exchange rates, and speculation can cause copper prices to be very volatile.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，目前物理市場與金融市場在銅的定位之間存在脱節。儘管存在供應挑戰，利率、匯率和投機等宏觀經濟變量可能導致銅價非常波動。</p>
</div><p>On the supply side, new projects are usually approved, or there have been technological advancements in the extraction process will help to remove some of these supply constraints sooner than expected; however, at this time, there are no indications that any of these scenarios will happen shortly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在供應方面，新項目通常會獲得批准，或者提取過程中的技術進步將有助於比預期更早地消除一些供應限制；然而，目前沒有跡象表明這些情況會在短期內發生。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Market Implications: How Investors Should Position</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>市場影響：投資者應如何佈局</strong></h2>
</div><p>For those investors that invest in copper, it is now transitioning from being primarily a cyclical trade to more of a structural allocation theme. The key will be to position your exposure to align with the underlying catalysts driving this market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於那些投資銅的投資者來説，現在正從主要的週期性交易轉變為更具結構性的配置主題。關鍵在於將你的投資暴露與推動這一市場的基本催化因素對齊。</p>
</div><p>When determining which copper producers will be best positioned to benefit from continued copper deficits, look for producers that have high quality assets, low cost structures, and long-life reserves. Additionally, companies that have exposure to supply growth in the future—particularly those that are working on large-scale projects—will provide leverage for investors to capitalize on price increases; although, such investments will also have greater execution risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在確定哪些銅生產商最有可能從持續的銅短缺中受益時，尋找那些擁有高質量資產、低成本結構和長期儲備的生產商。此外，未來有供應增長潛力的公司——特別是那些正在進行大規模項目的公司——將為投資者提供利用價格上漲的槓桿；儘管這樣的投資也會面臨更大的執行風險。</p>
</div><p>In addition to equities, other forms of copper investments require careful monitoring of indicators like TC/RC and other long-term supply contracts along with inventories, which may provide better actionable information than spot prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了股票，其他形式的銅投資需要仔細監測 TC/RC 等指標以及其他長期供應合同和庫存，這可能提供比現貨價格更具可操作性的信息。</p>
</div><p>Finally, copper will increasingly play an important role in the global economy. As electrification continues to accelerate and AI infrastructure expands, copper is likely to become critical to both the energy transition as well as to the digital economy. Therefore, the current copper cycle may not ultimately be characterized by peak price; instead, it may instead represent a very early phase of a prolonged structural re-pricing of copper.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最後，銅將在全球經濟中扮演越來越重要的角色。隨着電氣化的加速和人工智能基礎設施的擴展，銅可能在能源轉型和數字經濟中變得至關重要。因此，目前的銅週期可能不會最終以峯值價格為特徵；相反，它可能代表銅的長期結構性重新定價的非常早期階段。</p>
</div><p>Find out more</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>瞭解更多</p>
</div>

Copper Outlook 2026: Supply Deficits, AI Demand, and Institutional Rotation Reshape the Bull Case

TradingKey

BCI Minerals Ltd

Antofagasta plc

iShares Copper and Metals Mining ETF

美國銅指數基金 - Concierge Technologies

有色50

自由港邁克墨倫銅金礦

泰克資源

江西銅業

廣發中證稀有金屬ETF

Hudbay Minerals

德銀基礎金屬 ETF - PowerShares

華夏中證細分有色金屬產業主題ETF

銅礦 ETF - GlobalX

必和必拓

Sprott Junior Copper Miners ETF

Sprott Copper Miners ETF

金屬採礦 ETF - SPDR

力拓

有色龍頭ETF

國泰中證有色金屬礦業主題ETF

ERO Copper

力拓集團

全球金屬和採礦生產商 MSCI ETF - iShares

南方中證申萬有色金屬ETF

Rio Tinto Limited

國泰中證有色金屬ETF

必和必拓集團

2026 年銅市場展望：供應短缺、人工智能需求和機構輪動重塑牛市前景