--- title: "The inflation shock will eventually turn into a growth shock! Morgan Stanley and PIMCO jointly warn: the bond market is seriously underestimating the risk of a slowdown in the U.S. economy" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280924898.md" description: "Some top bond fund managers on Wall Street warn that financial markets are underestimating the risk of an economic slowdown resulting from potential U.S. military strikes against Iran. International oil prices have surpassed $110 per barrel, and the market is concerned about inflation shocks, leading to a severe sell-off in the U.S. Treasury market. Asset management giants like JPMorgan and PIMCO have begun positioning for an economic recession, anticipating a rebound in the bond market and a decline in yields. Goldman Sachs estimates the probability of a U.S. recession has risen to 30%, while PIMCO believes it is over one-third. Although pessimistic economic expectations typically favor bonds, high inflation makes it difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, resulting in a sharp sell-off in the bond market and soaring yields across the board" datetime: "2026-03-29T23:28:01.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280924898.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/280924898.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280924898.md) --- > 支持的語言: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280924898.md) | [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/280924898.md) # The inflation shock will eventually turn into a growth shock! Morgan Stanley and PIMCO jointly warn: the bond market is seriously underestimating the risk of a slowdown in the U.S. economy According to the Zhitong Finance APP, some top bond fund managers on Wall Street have stated that the financial markets are severely underestimating the risk of a military strike by the United States against Iran, which could lead to a sharp slowdown in the already weak U.S. economy. Currently, international oil prices have surpassed $110 per barrel, and there are no signs of the conflict easing, with market trading still focused on inflation shocks. This has led to the most severe monthly sell-off in the U.S. Treasury market since October 2024, as investors bet that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again this year. However, asset management giants represented by Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO), JPMorgan Chase, and Columbia Threadneedle Investments have begun to position themselves for the impact of an economic recession—they anticipate that a weakening economy will eventually trigger a rebound in the bond market, pushing yields significantly lower. Kelsey Berro, a fixed income portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, stated, "With each day the conflict continues, the market gets closer to being forced to confront the negative effects on economic growth, which will ultimately lower U.S. Treasury yields. Current yields have already risen to attractive levels." ![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260330/1774826367230349.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) As energy prices soar, borrowing costs rise, and the stock market plunges, economists are lowering growth expectations and raising recession probabilities. Goldman Sachs predicts that the probability of a U.S. economic recession will rise to about 30% in the next 12 months, while PIMCO believes this probability exceeds one-third. Generally speaking, pessimistic economic expectations are favorable for bonds, as they increase the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates to stimulate the economy. However, this situation is entirely different—traders believe that soaring energy prices will leave the Federal Reserve, already facing stubbornly high inflation, with little room to cut rates. The resulting sharp sell-off in the bond market has driven yields to soar across the board. Since the U.S. launched airstrikes at the end of last month, the yields on two-year and five-year U.S. Treasuries have jumped more than 50 basis points; the 30-year yield is approaching 5%, just a step away from the peak when the Federal Reserve raised rates to a 20-year high in 2023. This trend mainly reflects market concerns about energy prices driving up the costs of various commodities. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) warned last week that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) could soar to 4.2% this year. As a result, investors are demanding higher bond returns to guard against inflation erosion. However, seasoned bond market investors believe that the current sell-off has created a good opportunity to lock in high yields—the market's concerns about inflation are overshadowing the threats to economic growth. Daniel Ivascyn, Chief Investment Officer of PIMCO, which manages over $2 trillion in assets, stated, "The shock that begins with inflation often quickly evolves into a growth shock. We are standing at the critical point of significant economic weakening." In fact, the risks to the U.S. economy had already been accumulating before the outbreak of war. Since tariffs were imposed after Trump returned to the White House, disrupting global trade, the job market has been cooling. In February, U.S. employers laid off 92,000 workers, and the March data, to be released on Friday, is expected to show only a modest rebound, with new jobs possibly only at 60,000 In addition, the market is also unsettled due to concerns related to artificial intelligence (AI) and localized pressures in the private credit industry. Currently, the ongoing conflict that has lasted for four weeks has effectively cut off oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz. This shock has transmitted to end consumers, with U.S. gasoline prices reaching their highest level since inflation surged after the pandemic. Rick Rieder, head of fixed income at BlackRock, which manages over $2 trillion in assets, believes that the Federal Reserve should still lower interest rates to cushion the impact. He stated that once the economic outlook becomes clearer, he will increase purchases of short-term bonds. "We will observe the situation changes in the coming weeks, and then I will enter to buy," he said in an interview. As of Friday, the futures market shows that traders have completely ruled out the possibility of the Federal Reserve lowering rates in 2026, expecting it to maintain rates unchanged and pricing in about a one-third probability of a 25 basis point rate hike within the year. With the 30-year yield rising, Columbia Threadneedle portfolio manager Ed Al-Hussainy has begun to increase his holdings in long-term bonds. He predicts that if the Federal Reserve raises rates further, adding new pressure to the economy, long-term yields will eventually decline. "The more the Federal Reserve tightens its policy, the more the long end of the bond yield curve needs to price in total demand and inflation premiums, thus bearing greater downward pressure," he stated ### 相關股票 - [GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC DEP SHR REP 1/1000TH PFD SER A (GS-A.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/GS-A.US.md) - [JPMorgan Chase (JPM.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/JPM.US.md) - [GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC DEP REP 1/1000TH PRF D (GS-D.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/GS-D.US.md) - [GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC DEP SHS REPSTG 1/1000TH PRF SER C (GS-C.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/GS-C.US.md) - [Goldman Sachs (GS.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/GS.US.md) - [Vanguard Short Term Bd (VCSH.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/VCSH.US.md) - [SPDR Bloomberg High Yld Bd ETF (JNK.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/JNK.US.md) - [SPDR Portfolio High Yield Bond ETF (SPHY.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SPHY.US.md) - [SPDR Intermed Term (SPIB.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SPIB.US.md) - [iShares 0-5 YR HY Corp Bd (SHYG.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SHYG.US.md) - [iShares Barclays Short Treasury (SHV.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SHV.US.md) - [iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IEF.US.md) - [iShares Broad USD HY Corporate Bd (USHY.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/USHY.US.md) - [Vanguard Long Term Bd (VCLT.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/VCLT.US.md) - [SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (BIL.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/BIL.US.md) - [iShares iBoxx Invt (LQD.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/LQD.US.md) - [iShares Trust iShares 1-5 Year Invest Grade Corp Bond ETF (IGSB.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IGSB.US.md) - [Vanguard Intermediate Term Bd (VCIT.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/VCIT.US.md) - [Schwab 5-10 Year Corp Bond ETF (SCHI.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SCHI.US.md) - [iShares iBoxx HY Corp Bd (HYG.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/HYG.US.md) - [PIMCO Corp & Income Strategy Fd (PCN.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/PCN.US.md) - [ISHRS Us Trsry Bd (GOVT.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/GOVT.US.md) - [iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd (TLT.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/TLT.US.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [JP Morgan cuts BoE rate hike view after Bailey flags market risks](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281401698.md) - [Goldman Sachs completes Innovator Capital acquisition, lifting ETF assets to $90 billion](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281521684.md) - [Global bonds set for steep monthly losses as Iran war stokes stagflation fears](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280964987.md) - [Goldman Sachs AI stocks: Top 12 stocks to buy](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281035837.md) - [Tinci Materials' Hong Kong IPO Likely To Raise Over $1B](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280992312.md)