--- title: "The first monthly economic data released after the Middle East conflict: Consumer confidence across the U.S. has plummeted to freezing point. Can March's non-farm payrolls hold up?" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280924938.md" description: "The Middle East conflict has led to a continued decline in the U.S. stock market, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 7% and 6%, respectively. The NASDAQ index saw an even larger drop, down about 10% year-to-date. Investors are focused on the upcoming employment report and market sentiment report. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has caused oil prices to rise, with Brent crude and WTI crude prices increasing by 45% and 50%, respectively" datetime: "2026-03-29T23:29:57.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280924938.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/280924938.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280924938.md) --- > 支持的語言: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280924938.md) | [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/280924938.md) # The first monthly economic data released after the Middle East conflict: Consumer confidence across the U.S. has plummeted to freezing point. Can March's non-farm payrolls hold up? The Zhitong Finance APP noted that due to the ongoing war in the Gulf region with no signs of ending, the U.S. stock market fell again last week, and the equity market continued to decline. The S&P 500 index dropped about 1.7% last Friday, marking the longest consecutive decline since 2022; the Dow Jones Industrial Average also fell 1.7% last Friday, with a decline of about 800 points. So far this year, these two major indices have fallen by 7% and 6%, respectively. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite Index saw a deeper decline of 2.2% on Friday, bringing its year-to-date decline to about 10%. ## Key Events This Week The employment report to be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday will be the highlight of a busy economic schedule. The core question for investors is: after experiencing a dramatic fluctuation with an increase of 130,000 jobs in January and a decrease of 92,000 jobs in February, will the payroll numbers return to normal? Additionally, investors will receive a report on market sentiment and expectations from the Business Roundtable on Tuesday; the same day will also see the JOLTS job openings report; on Thursday, there will be additional labor market insights provided by the job placement company Challenger, Gray & Christmas. On the corporate front, Nike (NIKE.US) will lead this otherwise infrequent earnings week with its quarterly financial report on Tuesday. Investors will also see earnings reports from two major key mineral companies in the U.S.—USA Rare Earth and Trilogy Metals—on Monday and Friday, respectively. ## Continued Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz As the war in Iran enters its fifth week, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, preventing approximately 15 to 16 million barrels of oil from entering the market daily. Oil prices continue to rise, with Brent crude and U.S. WTI crude increasing by over 45% and 50%, respectively, in the past month. Gareth Ramsey, chief economist at BP, stated earlier last week, "I don't think this can be compared to any previous disruptions," adding that the interruption in the Strait of Hormuz is "a research topic for every analyst, or a nightmare we thought would never happen." The conflict currently shows no signs of ending in the short term. Last Thursday, President Trump announced that he would delay the deadline for Iran to return to the negotiating table for the second time, after which the U.S. would strike at the country's domestic power infrastructure—however, even so, oil prices continue to rise, and the stock market keeps falling. Strategists told that the only important question now is: how long Iran is willing to block the Persian Gulf oil, and how long the rest of the world will tolerate this situation. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf stated in a television interview last week that the Strait of Hormuz "cannot return to its previous state as before." ## Seeking Normalcy in Employment Data The data for January showed a significant unexpected increase, while February saw a much larger unexpected decline. For investors, the biggest question this week is: will March become a month where the Bureau of Labor Statistics' core indicator—the non-farm payroll report—returns to near expected levels? As of last Friday, economists expected job growth of 50,000 positions. The current "no hiring, no layoffs" status dominating the U.S. labor market is not expected to change significantly, and the impact of the Iran war on the economy has yet to be fully reflected in the data. Andrew Husby, a senior U.S. economist at BNP Paribas, stated, "We tend to believe that, since companies are already streamlined in terms of new hiring demands, it will be difficult to break the current 'low hiring/low layoffs' balance unless energy prices or confidence are hit by a more severe shock than currently." However, this does not mean that the economic resistance brought by the war will not weigh on the labor market. Goldman Sachs U.S. economist Pierfrancesco Mei believes that these effects may simply not have manifested yet. In a report, Mei wrote, "Considering the job increases in the energy sector and job losses in other sectors, we estimate that by the end of the year, high oil prices will reduce monthly net job growth by about 10,000." ## Federal Reserve May Shift to Hawkish Stance Although the Federal Reserve may be signaling caution, the bond market is increasingly pricing in the committee's potential shift to a more hawkish stance. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond (which moves inversely to bond prices) surged to 4.48%, reaching its highest level since July of last year, as news of Trump delaying strikes on Iranian infrastructure failed to ease investor anxiety. On the short end of the curve, the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond climbed to 4% on Friday. Notably, short-term yields have decoupled from oil price movements. In the weeks leading up to the conflict, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield had been following crude oil prices, but since the Federal Reserve meeting, the 2-year yield, seen as a barometer of expected policy direction, has risen by more than 30 basis points, while oil prices have remained relatively stable. Aditya Bhave, head of global research at Bank of America and global economist, wrote that given the divergence between post-meeting short-term rates and oil prices, "we believe the market is currently anticipating a more hawkish Federal Reserve response mechanism, and there may be larger commodity shocks." A change that was unimaginable before the war is that traders now expect a 22% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the end of 2026. ## Market Sentiment Turns Gloomy In addition to the largely stagnant labor market, the overall atmosphere in the U.S. economy is not ideal. Data from the University of Michigan shows that the consumer confidence index fell to its lowest level since December of last year in March, as the Iran war worsened public perceptions of the U.S. economy. This is not surprising. Major stock indices have given back all gains from 2026, and gold prices have dropped by 12% since the war began. The national average gasoline price is just $0.03 away from $4 per gallon, while rising diesel prices are pushing up transportation costs. Joanne Xu, the head of the survey, stated, "Consumers' reactions are not only in response to the geopolitical shocks themselves but also to the changes occurring across the entire economy." Data from the World Business Council on Tuesday will provide investors with another reference point for measuring U.S. market satisfaction following the pessimistic data from the University of Michigan ### 相關股票 - [Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/OXY.US.md) - [NASDAQ-100 (.NDX.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/.NDX.US.md) - [Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/.DJI.US.md) - [S&P 500 (.SPX.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [NASDAQ Composite Index (.IXIC.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/.IXIC.US.md) - [Dow Jones Utility Average (.DJU.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/.DJU.US.md) - [SPDR S&P 500 (SPY.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SPY.US.md) - [SPDR Djia (DIA.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/DIA.US.md) - [iShares US Oil & Gas Expl & Prod (IEO.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IEO.US.md) - [VanEck Oil Refiners ETF (CRAK.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/CRAK.US.md) - [United States Oil Fund LP (USO.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/USO.US.md) - [Pro Ultr Bloomberg Crude Oil (UCO.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/UCO.US.md) - [SPDR O&G Ex & Prd (XOP.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/XOP.US.md) - [Guggenheim DJIA Ave Div (DJD.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/DJD.US.md) - [Pro UltrPro Dow30 (UDOW.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/UDOW.US.md) - [SPDR Energy Select (XLE.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/XLE.US.md) - [SPDR O&G Equip (XES.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/XES.US.md) - [VG Energy (VDE.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/VDE.US.md) - [iShares US Oil Equip & Svcs (IEZ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IEZ.US.md) - [iShares Core S&P 500 (IVV.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IVV.US.md) - [VG S&P 500 (VOO.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/VOO.US.md) - [ISHRS S&P Glb Engy (IXC.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IXC.US.md) - [Us Brent Oil (BNO.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/BNO.US.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [NFP Preview: Jobs Expected to Recover, but Iran Dominates Markets](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281545870.md) - [What to expect from the March jobs report — and when the war could hit hiring](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281518400.md) - [TRADING DAY-Oil Strait back up again](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281575673.md) - [Near-term oil prices hit record premium over later deliveries after Trump vows more attacks on Iran](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281570397.md) - [Oil up over 1% as Mideast uncertainty keeps market jittery](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281301508.md)