--- title: "Bank of America warns that U.S. stocks, bonds, and gold will be under pressure in Q2, while the dollar and oil prices may emerge as winners" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280944539.md" description: "Bank of America Securities' new outlook shows that U.S. stocks, bonds, and gold will face pressure in the second quarter, with expectations for the dollar and oil markets to strengthen. Technical analyst Paul Ciana pointed out that recent market trends confirm previous predictions, including rising U.S. Treasury yields, a stronger dollar, and increasing oil prices. The stock market faces downside risks, with the S&P 500 index potentially falling further to 6,000 points. The dollar index shows signs of strengthening, which may put pressure on global markets and exporters" datetime: "2026-03-30T02:44:04.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280944539.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/280944539.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280944539.md) --- > 支持的語言: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/280944539.md) | [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/280944539.md) # Bank of America warns that U.S. stocks, bonds, and gold will be under pressure in Q2, while the dollar and oil prices may emerge as winners According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Bank of America Securities' new outlook shows that stocks, bonds, and gold will face challenges in the second quarter, with expectations for the dollar and oil markets to strengthen. The bank's technical analyst, Paul Siana, noted in a report on March 27 that recent market trends confirm previous predictions, including rising U.S. Treasury yields, a stronger dollar, and increasing oil prices. Unless there is a clear turnaround in the macroeconomic situation that triggers a sharp reversal, these trends are expected to continue. U.S. Treasury yields are the focus of market attention. Long-term rates have broken upward and may continue to rise, with the 30-year Treasury yield potentially reaching around 5.4% in the coming months. This trend reflects market concerns about persistent inflation, which is closely related to geopolitical tensions and high commodity prices. At the same time, the stock market is also under pressure. The S&P 500 index has formed a top pattern and entered a downtrend after breaking a key technical level in early March. If the current trend continues, the index may further decline to the 6000-point low range. Bank of America stated: "After a slight historical high in the first quarter but not reaching the target, a wedge top and dome pattern have formed. The closing price on March 6 fell below the 20-week moving average, signaling the start of a downtrend. Downside risks in the second quarter include levels of 6340/6175/6000 points. The 20-week moving average around 6810 points is a key resistance level that may guide the downtrend. We have not yet seen panic selling signals." In contrast, the dollar index has shown signs of strengthening after forming a bottom over the past year. Technical signals suggest it may rise to past cycle highs, putting pressure on global markets and exporters. "Since June 2025, we have been inclined to go long on the dollar, especially relative to commodity-importing countries," Bank of America stated. "The dollar index has rebounded from its lows and reached a 52-week high—such as near the 200-week moving average around 103—indicating overall dollar strength, putting greater pressure on exporters." Oil prices remain volatile but are supported. After a significant rise earlier this year, oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of $90 to $100 per barrel, with upside risks if supply concerns persist. Meanwhile, gold seems to be entering a correction phase after a strong rise. In the short term, prices may decline or consolidate sideways, with downside targets well below recent highs. Bank of America stated: "Adjustments are expected to continue for a long time from the second to third quarters, with a rebound in the second quarter likely to fade, and gold prices may test $4000/ounce or even $3700, with the current direction being sideways to downward." Siana also emphasized the so-called "policy put option" levels, which refer to the levels at which the government may take measures in response to increased market pressure, especially as the U.S. election approaches. These thresholds may affect the extent of market volatility before policymakers intervene. 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