--- title: "The escalation of the Middle East conflict increases uncertainty. The President of the New York Federal Reserve stated that interest rates are at a \"suitable level,\" while Director Milan advocates for continued rate cuts" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281083817.md" description: "The internal statements of the Federal Reserve regarding the policy path are becoming more cautious, generally leaning towards a \"wait-and-see\" approach, but also showing some divergence. New York Fed President John Williams stated that the current monetary policy is \"in a good position,\" and the Middle East war may bring supply shocks, pushing up inflation and suppressing economic growth. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell also expressed a similar cautious attitude, believing that it is necessary to wait for the situation to become clearer. Governor Michelle Bowman advocates for a rate cut, arguing that the short-term energy price shock should be ignored. Market expectations for a rate cut are rising" datetime: "2026-03-30T22:23:02.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281083817.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281083817.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281083817.md) --- > 支持的語言: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281083817.md) | [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281083817.md) # The escalation of the Middle East conflict increases uncertainty. The President of the New York Federal Reserve stated that interest rates are at a "suitable level," while Director Milan advocates for continued rate cuts The Federal Reserve's internal statements on policy direction have become cautious, generally leaning towards a "wait-and-see" approach, but also showing some divergence. According to the Zhitong Finance APP, New York Fed President John Williams stated on Monday that current monetary policy is "in a good position" to balance inflation and employment. He pointed out that the Middle East conflict could bring typical supply shocks, which could raise inflation through rising energy and commodity prices while also suppressing economic growth, a situation that "has already begun to manifest." Williams further emphasized that with a significant rise in energy prices, overall inflation levels may trend upward in the coming months, but if the conflict ends and oil prices fall, some pressure may ease within the year. He expects U.S. economic growth to be around 2.5% this year, with inflation potentially rising to 2.75%, before falling back to the 2% target next year, while the unemployment rate will rise somewhat. On the same day, Fed Chair Jerome Powell also expressed a similar cautious attitude. He noted that the situation in the Middle East will have a direct impact on oil prices, and that current policy is "suitable for a wait-and-see approach," needing to wait for further clarity on the situation. He also admitted that the Fed is facing a "dilemma," as there are downside risks in the labor market that require maintaining lower interest rates, while upward inflationary pressures suggest that excessive easing may not be appropriate. Internally, the Federal Reserve is not completely unified in its policy stance. Governor Michelle Bowman continues to advocate for rate cuts. She stated that short-term energy price shocks should be ignored unless they evolve into more persistent inflationary pressures, such as a wage/price spiral. Currently, inflation expectations remain stable, and while rising energy prices have pushed gasoline prices above $1 per gallon, they have not changed long-term inflation expectations. In terms of policy background, at this month's meeting, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate unchanged in the range of 3.5% to 3.75% and expects to possibly cut rates once in 2026. The market had previously bet on rate hikes due to soaring oil prices but has recently shifted back to expectations of rate cuts. Analysts point out that the Middle East conflict has disrupted transportation in the Strait of Hormuz, making energy prices the largest external variable in the current economy. High oil prices could both push up inflation and compress consumer spending, thereby dragging down economic growth, complicating the Fed's trade-off between "controlling inflation" and "stabilizing growth." ### 相關股票 - [VG Financial (VFH.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/VFH.US.md) - [Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/XLF.US.md) - [S&P 500 (.SPX.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [Invesco S&P 500 Eq Wgt ETF (RSP.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/RSP.US.md) - [Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/.DJI.US.md) - [NASDAQ Composite Index (.IXIC.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/.IXIC.US.md) - [NASDAQ-100 (.NDX.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/.NDX.US.md) - [iShares MSCI USA Value Factor ETF (VLUE.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/VLUE.US.md) - [ISHRS Us Brokers & Sec Exchg (IAI.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IAI.US.md) - [Dow Jones U.S. Index (.DJUS.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/.DJUS.US.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [U.S. commercial paper market shrinks in week-Fed](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280667304.md) - [AAA: Michigan gas prices rise again](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281019895.md) - [Wall Street bears may have pushed the stock market too far, making an April rally more likely](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280325657.md) - [Franchetti boosts 2025 growth and outlines expansion plan through 2030](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281069682.md) - [ROI-Inflation-spooked rates markets have overshot: McGeever](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280477360.md)