--- title: "One step away from a technical adjustment! The S&P 500 hits a new low since August last year, and the valuation premium of tech stocks has fallen to a freezing point, signaling a historic turning point?" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281087602.md" description: "On Monday, U.S. stocks opened high but closed low, with major indices recording the longest weekly decline since 2022, due to market concerns over escalating conflicts in the Middle East. The S&P 500 index closed at its lowest level since August of last year, just under 1 percentage point away from a technical correction. The NASDAQ-100 index fell another 0.8%. Investor concerns about economic growth intensified, U.S. Treasury prices rose, and oil prices closed above $100 per barrel for the first time. Morgan Stanley strategists believe the stock market decline is nearing its end, while Goldman Sachs pointed out that hedge funds are showing signs of capitulation" datetime: "2026-03-30T23:25:03.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281087602.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281087602.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281087602.md) --- > 支持的語言: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281087602.md) | [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281087602.md) # One step away from a technical adjustment! The S&P 500 hits a new low since August last year, and the valuation premium of tech stocks has fallen to a freezing point, signaling a historic turning point? According to Zhitong Finance APP, U.S. stocks opened higher but fell throughout the day on Monday, with a selling wave intensifying, leading major indices to record their longest weekly decline since 2022, as concerns grew over escalating conflicts in the Middle East—more U.S. troops have arrived in Iran, and the risk of conflict continues to rise. The S&P 500 index rose 0.9% in the morning but turned down 0.4% by the end of the day, closing at its lowest level since August last year, just under 1 percentage point away from a technical correction (a 10% drop from the peak). The NASDAQ-100 index fell another 0.8% after entering the correction zone last Friday. The White House threatened to escalate its strikes against Iran, targeting key civilian energy facilities. Although Trump claimed progress in negotiations, there are currently no signs of a ceasefire. He warned on social media that if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened soon, Iran's energy assets will be destroyed. Investors are also digesting the contradictory statements from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell: on one hand, he reiterated that the Fed will eventually achieve its 2% inflation target, while on the other hand, he admitted that the Fed has little power to address supply shocks such as soaring energy prices caused by turmoil in the Middle East. U.S. Treasury prices rose amid growing investor concerns about economic growth and a cooling of bets on Fed interest rate hikes; U.S. oil prices closed above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022. Energy stocks have risen for 14 consecutive weeks, setting a record for the longest winning streak in history. Despite this, Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson believes that increasing signs indicate that the stock market's decline over the past five weeks is "approaching its end," suggesting that investors are pricing in growth risks higher than the market's general expectations. ![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260331/1774912177465764.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs' trading department noted that hedge funds are beginning to show signs of capitulation, while the operational momentum of systematic funds is also weakening. The department expects that commodity trading advisors (CTAs) will become buyers in any scenario within the next month. Currently, the S&P 500 is experiencing its worst single-month performance since 2022; the NASDAQ-100 has fallen 12% from its historical high in October last year, officially breaking the technical correction threshold last Friday. This round of sharp declines stems from market concerns that the conflict in the Middle East will drive up oil prices, potentially stifling economic growth and reigniting inflation. The weak performance of large tech stocks is signaling a potential turning point for the sector, which has often indicated a change in trend. The current expected price-to-earnings ratio of the NASDAQ-100 index is about 21 times (based on expected earnings over the next 12 months), only 1.7 percentage points higher than that of the S&P 500 index. The last time the valuation premium of this index relative to the broader market was so low, it subsequently outperformed the S&P 500 by a record margin in the following year. ![image.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260331/1774912189149736.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) The JP Morgan strategy team emphasizes that the current situation is significantly different from that of 2022. At that time, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and pandemic disruptions drove inflation to a 40-year high; now, policy interest rates are high, wage growth is slowing, and the development of artificial intelligence (AI) has made deflation risks greater than stagflation risks. Led by Mislav Matejka, the strategy team wrote: "From the stock price trends, while the market has not priced in an economic recession, it is by no means universally complacent." ### 相關股票 - [VG S&P 500 (VOO.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/VOO.US.md) - [Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQM.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/QQQM.US.md) - [GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC DEP SHR REP 1/1000TH PFD SER A (GS-A.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/GS-A.US.md) - [GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC DEP SHS REPSTG 1/1000TH PRF SER C (GS-C.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/GS-C.US.md) - [SPDR S&P 500 (SPY.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SPY.US.md) - [Proshares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/TQQQ.US.md) - [iShares Core S&P 500 (IVV.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IVV.US.md) - [S&P 500 (.SPX.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [NASDAQ-100 (.NDX.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/.NDX.US.md) - [Goldman Sachs (GS.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/GS.US.md) - [GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC DEP REP 1/1000TH PRF D (GS-D.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/GS-D.US.md) - [Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/QQQ.US.md) - [Direxion Semicon Bull 3X (SOXL.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SOXL.US.md) - [Morgan Stanley (MS.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/MS.US.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [Morgan Stanley warns Australia faces diesel supply shock and growth risks](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280921085.md) - [08:03 ETCensys Raises $70 Million in Strategic Funding to Expand Its Internet Intelligence Platform](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281182734.md) - [Two ETF Goliaths Driving the Markets This Month](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281411078.md) - [Should You Really Invest in the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF Right Now? 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