---
title: "Polymarket Predicts Low Probability for Trump Mobile Launch by Mid-2026"
type: "News"
locale: "zh-HK"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281361461.md"
description: "Polymarket has launched a prediction event for the potential release of Trump Mobile phones, estimating a 6% chance of a launch by April 30 and 22% by June 30. The event will be deemed successful if a phone, including the T1 model, is publicly available by the specified dates. Trump Mobile, a subsidiary of the Trump Organization, had previously postponed its gold smartphone release planned for 2025. Reports indicate that the T1 phone has not yet shipped, and the products are operated by third-party companies under brand licensing."
datetime: "2026-04-01T11:43:45.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281361461.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281361461.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281361461.md)
---

> 支持的語言: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281361461.md) | [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281361461.md)


# Polymarket Predicts Low Probability for Trump Mobile Launch by Mid-2026

Polymarket has introduced a new prediction event regarding the potential launch of Trump Mobile phones by the end of April or June. According to Odaily, the probability of a phone release by April 30 is currently 6%, while the likelihood of a launch by June 30 stands at 22%. The market will consider the event successful if Trump Mobile officially releases a phone, including the T1 model or any other, by 11:59 PM Eastern Time on the specified dates. The product must be available for public purchase within the timeframe to qualify as released; announcements, unveilings, reservations, or pre-orders do not meet the criteria. The primary basis for judgment will be information from Trump Mobile, supplemented by consensus from other reliable reports. In December 2025, Trump Mobile, a subsidiary of the Trump Organization, postponed its plan to deliver its gold-colored smartphone by the end of 2025. On January 24, 2026, technology media outlet The Verge reported that the initial T1 phone had yet to be shipped. Similar to previous brand licensing practices by the Trump Organization, the T1 phone and services are not directly designed, developed, or sold by the Trump Organization but are operated by third-party companies through brand licensing.

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