--- title: "Crude sustaining above $100 will push inflation beyond 6%, says HSBC" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281639483.md" description: "HSBC economists warn that crude oil prices above $100 per barrel will push inflation beyond 6%, exceeding the RBI's tolerance band and likely triggering interest rate hikes. They recommend a neutral stance on monetary and fiscal policies to avoid overstimulating demand, which could lead to high inflation, as seen during the COVID pandemic. The report emphasizes the need to balance growth and inflation, suggesting that if the energy shock continues, the negative impact on growth may outweigh inflation concerns." datetime: "2026-04-03T04:56:47.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281639483.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281639483.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281639483.md) --- > 支持的語言: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281639483.md) | [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281639483.md) # Crude sustaining above $100 will push inflation beyond 6%, says HSBC Crude oil sustaining above $100 per barrel will push the headline inflation above 6 per cent, the upper level of RBI's tolerance band, and trigger rate hikes, a foreign brokerage has said. Economists at HSBC said that consumer price inflation (CPI) will remain below 6 per cent if oil prices average below $100 per barrel, as per its modelling. "... Sustained oil above USD100/bbl would push inflation beyond 6 per cent, likely triggering rate hikes," the economists said, adding that we are at "crossroads" as Brent has averaged $100 in March. Amid speculation ahead of next Wednesday's monetary policy announcement on whether the RBI uses interest rates to defend the rupee, the report suggested risks of such a move. "An interest-rate defence for the INR can be expensive when the growth drag becomes non-linear and intensifies quickly with higher oil prices," it said. The economists recommended adopting a "neutral" stance on both the monetary and fiscal fronts for now, as the supplies are yet to be cleared and stimulating demand can stoke inflation. Pointing out that doing so would be akin to the experience during the COVID pandemic, the report said stimulating demand before supply was repaired led to high and sticky inflation back then. "The lesson now is clear: avoid boosting demand too early. But this is a delicate balance. Policymakers don't want to overstimulate, but they also can't tighten so much that the growth slowdown deepens," it added. Elaborating on the "neutral" prescription, it said this would mean keeping the fiscal deficit close to FY26 levels and raising petrol and diesel prices to help contain the fiscal deficit. On the monetary side, the "flexible" inflation targeting framework allows inflation to stay within the 2-6 per cent range, it added. If the ongoing energy shock persists for a few more weeks, the growth drag could begin to outweigh the inflation shock, it said. ### 相關股票 - [HSBC (HSBC.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/HSBC.US.md) - [iShares US Energy (IYE.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IYE.US.md) - [HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA.UK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/HSBA.UK.md) - [SPDR Energy Select (XLE.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/XLE.US.md) - [SPDR O&G Ex & Prd (XOP.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/XOP.US.md) - [F GX OIL (03097.HK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/03097.HK.md) - [HSBC Holdings plc ADRhedged (HSBH.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/HSBH.US.md) - [iShares US Oil & Gas Expl & Prod (IEO.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IEO.US.md) - [HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/00005.HK.md) - [BP p.l.c. (BP.UK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/BP.UK.md) - [SPDR O&G Equip (XES.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/XES.US.md) - [ISHRS S&P Glb Engy (IXC.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IXC.US.md) - [VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/OIH.US.md) - [Invesco DB Multi Sector Comm TR Oil Fd ETF (DBO.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/DBO.US.md) - [HSPC (603353.CN)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/603353.CN.md) - [United States Oil Fund LP (USO.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/USO.US.md) - [Pro Ultr Bloomberg Crude Oil (UCO.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/UCO.US.md) - [Us Brent Oil (BNO.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/BNO.US.md) - [VanEck Oil Refiners ETF (CRAK.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/CRAK.US.md) - [iShares US Oil Equip & Svcs (IEZ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IEZ.US.md) - [F SAMSUNG OIL (03175.HK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/03175.HK.md) - [Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/OXY.US.md) - [VG Energy (VDE.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/VDE.US.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [HSBC Issues $130 Million in Debt](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280941314.md) - [Near-term oil prices hit record premium over later deliveries after Trump vows more attacks on Iran](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281570397.md) - [FACTBOX-What G7 countries are doing to cap energy prices](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281018590.md) - [TRADING DAY-Oil Strait back up again](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281575673.md) - [South Korea to tighten public-sector driving curbs as energy alert raised](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281336286.md)