--- title: "The U.S. job market has yet to reflect the impact of the war: March non-farm payrolls significantly exceeded expectations, unemployment rate declined, and expectations for the Federal Reserve not to cut interest rates have strengthened" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281642202.md" description: "U.S. employment growth rebounded in March, with an unexpected decline in the unemployment rate, indicating a stabilization in the labor market. Non-farm employment increased by 178,000 in March, marking the highest increase since the end of 2024, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%. Analysts expect that hiring will increase with the arrival of the World Cup, but the supply shocks from the Iran war may only become apparent in the second half of the year, at which point the unemployment rate may rise. The labor force participation rate fell to 61.9%, the lowest level since 2021. Economists warn that negative growth may become more common" datetime: "2026-04-03T13:34:04.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281642202.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281642202.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281642202.md) --- > 支持的語言: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281642202.md) | [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281642202.md) # The U.S. job market has yet to reflect the impact of the war: March non-farm payrolls significantly exceeded expectations, unemployment rate declined, and expectations for the Federal Reserve not to cut interest rates have strengthened According to Zhitong Finance APP, the employment growth in the United States rebounded in March, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined, indicating that the labor market is stabilizing amid the outbreak of the Iran war. The seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the U.S. increased by 178,000 in March, the highest increase since the end of 2024, with an expectation of 60,000, and the previous value revised from -92,000 to -133,000. The unemployment rate in the U.S. for March was 4.3%, with an expectation of 4.40% and a previous value of 4.40%. ![3582f0010b05403223a7babaabaaef6a.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260403/1775222552569182.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) The change in total non-farm employment for January was revised upward by 34,000, from +126,000 to +160,000; the change for February was revised downward by 41,000, from -92,000 to -133,000. After revisions, the total employment figures for January and February were 7,000 lower than previously reported. Analysts point out that employment numbers are expected to accelerate growth until June, reflecting increased hiring in the leisure and hospitality sectors as the U.S. hosts the World Cup, as well as a cyclical rebound in the freight industry. The significant supply shock caused by the outbreak of the Iran war may not be reflected in employment data until the second half of the year, when the unemployment rate is expected to rise more rapidly. ![417818a508d09b01cca0b71d1d086d65.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260403/1775222561195655.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) Although the unemployment rate has declined, this partly reflects a portion of Americans exiting the labor market—the labor force decreased by 396,000, and the employment participation rate in the U.S. for March was 61.9%, the lowest level since 2021, with an expectation of 62.1% and a previous value of 62.00%. The labor participation rate for workers aged 25 to 54 (also known as prime-age workers) has also declined. The number of people working part-time for economic reasons has increased. Economists estimate that due to historically low labor supply growth, the monthly addition of jobs is less than 50,000, barely keeping up with the growth of the working-age population. Some estimates even suggest that the breakeven point is zero or negative. Economists at JP Morgan warn that "negative growth in any given month will become more common," adding that "even if job growth is sufficient to stabilize the unemployment rate, employment data may still be negative at least one-third of the time." ![e160eef0f740bf95b99eca7a9b2c5b33.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260403/1775222541505010.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) Economists generally expect a rebound in the job market in March following a significant decline in employment numbers in February. Previously, a strike involving over 30,000 healthcare workers and severe winter weather led to the sharp drop in February employment figures. This strong growth may further reinforce the Federal Reserve's focus on inflation risks, as the war in the Middle East has triggered a rapid rise in energy prices. The growth in non-farm employment in March was primarily driven by the healthcare sector, recovering after the end of the strike by employees of Kaiser Permanente in California and Hawaii. The construction and leisure and hospitality sectors also saw a rebound after declining in February, which may reflect a recovery due to weather factors. The increase in manufacturing non-farm employment reached its highest level since the end of 2023. Economists are also closely monitoring how the dynamics of labor supply and demand affect wage growth, especially as inflation risks heat up again. The report showed that average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% month-on-month and rose by 3.5% year-on-year, the lowest level in nearly five years, both below expectations. ![4e485e56a2484eeca0136099d96310c4.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260403/1775222574470221.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) Other data indicated that prior to the outbreak of the war in Iran, there was no growth momentum in the labor market. Job vacancies decreased in February, and the hiring pace slowed to its lowest level since 2020. The small business hiring plans index remained stable in March, at one of its lowest levels in recent years. While March may not yet fully reflect the impact of the Middle East conflict, some economists suggest that the employment report for April may show this effect. This week, the national average retail gasoline price surpassed $4 per gallon for the first time in over three years. This will drive up inflation, weaken household purchasing power, offset some of the strong momentum in wage growth, and suppress consumer spending. The war led to a market capitalization evaporation of about $3.2 trillion in March. Trump vowed on Wednesday to launch more aggressive strikes against Iran. The employment report for March may not impact interest rate prospects, as the effects of supply chain disruptions caused by the conflict have not yet fully manifested in the economy. The likelihood of interest rate cuts this year has significantly decreased. U.S. Treasury yields rose after the strong non-farm data was released, reinforcing market expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain rates for a longer period rather than cut them. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose by 4.7 basis points to 4.36% following the employment data release, while the 2-year yield, reflecting interest rate expectations, increased by 6.6 basis points to 3.862%. The futures market indicates that there is almost no chance of any action at the FOMC meeting on April 28-29, with CME FedWatch data showing that the likelihood of the Federal Reserve maintaining rates until the end of the year exceeds 90% ![0c00fc3b3608723376f509f135eb5ce5.png](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260403/1775222515477945.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) ### 相關股票 - [NASDAQ-100 (.NDX.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/.NDX.US.md) - [S&P 500 (.SPX.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/.SPX.US.md) - [Pacer Cash COWZ 100-Nasdaq100RotatorETF (QQWZ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/QQWZ.US.md) - [Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/.DJI.US.md) - [Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index ETF (ONEQ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/ONEQ.US.md) - [Nasdaq (NDAQ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/NDAQ.US.md) - [Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQM.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/QQQM.US.md) - [First Trust NASDAQ-100 Equal Weighted (QQEW.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/QQEW.US.md) - [NASDAQ Composite Index (.IXIC.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/.IXIC.US.md) - [Proshares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/TQQQ.US.md) - [Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/QQQ.US.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [How to interpret the wild swings in the jobs numbers](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281681321.md) - [The US labor market right now can be defined by one word: Whiplash](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281686611.md) - [U.S. payrolls rose by 178,000 in March, more than expected; unemployment at 4.3%](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281637895.md) - [U.S. Employers Added A Surprisingly Strong 178,000 Jobs Last Month](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281642808.md) - [WRAPUP 1-US employment growth likely rebounded in March, war casting shadow over labor market](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281601429.md)