--- title: "Morgan Stanley: AI demand \"overwhelms\" advanced processes, TSMC's Q1 gross margin may exceed expectations" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281642210.md" description: "JP Morgan released a research report, expecting Taiwan Semiconductor's gross margin in Q1 2026 to exceed expectations, primarily driven by rising AI demand and increased capital expenditures, with the target price raised to NT$ 2,400. It is anticipated that revenue in Q2 2026 will grow by 6%-8% quarter-on-quarter, with an annual revenue growth rate reaching 35%. The significant increase in AI computing power demand is driving tight demand for advanced processes, with capital expenditures expected to reach $190 billion from 2026 to 2028" datetime: "2026-04-03T13:35:02.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281642210.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281642210.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281642210.md) --- > 支持的語言: [简体中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281642210.md) | [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281642210.md) # Morgan Stanley: AI demand "overwhelms" advanced processes, TSMC's Q1 gross margin may exceed expectations According to the Zhitong Finance APP, JP Morgan recently released a research report on Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US), forecasting strong gross margin growth in Q1 2026. The report indicates that AI demand is driving an upward adjustment in capital expenditures, with the target price raised to NT$2400. As the Q1 2026 earnings report period approaches, the bank believes that Taiwan Semiconductor's gross margin in the first and second quarters of 2026 will significantly exceed expectations, mainly due to continued tight 3nm capacity, high capacity utilization rates, increased urgent wafer demand, and the depreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar. The bank expects the company's revenue in Q2 2026 to grow by 6%-8% quarter-on-quarter, with the upper limit of growth mainly constrained by 3nm capacity. The bank currently estimates that the revenue growth rate for the entire year of 2026 will reach 35% in USD terms, with another potential 30% growth in 2027. Over the past 2-3 months, AI computing power demand has surged significantly (after Taiwan Semiconductor raised its capital expenditure outlook), and the bank believes that capital expenditures for 2027/2028 may be even more aggressive, with cumulative capital expenditures from 2026 to 2028 reaching $190 billion. Although the upward revision of the full-year revenue guidance for 2026 may have to wait until the Q2 earnings conference call, the bank expects management's qualitative statements regarding AI and iPhone demand trends to be very positive, enough to offset the weakness in client PC and Android phone demand. The bank has raised its earnings forecasts for 2026/2027 by 4%/6% respectively to reflect stronger growth and better gross margins, and has raised the target price for the end of 2026 to NT$2400 (corresponding to a 12-month forward P/E ratio of 20 times). **In the past 2-3 months, AI computing power demand has significantly increased, and advanced process demand is unprecedentedly tight.** Driven by the strong growth in autonomous intelligent agent AI task volume (following the release of products related to ClaudeCode, OpenClaw, and other AI labs), AI computing power demand has significantly strengthened over the past three months. The bank's research shows that the current demand for advanced process wafers is even tighter, with most high-performance computing (HPC) clients having locked in 3nm (N3) and 2nm (N2) capacity for 2027 ahead of time. In addition to the strong demand for AI accelerators and network chips, the recent recovery in CPU demand has further intensified the pressure on advanced process capacity. Although Taiwan Semiconductor plans to add new supply by the end of 2026, the bank still expects the utilization rates for the 3nm process to exceed 120% and 110% in 2026/2027, respectively. The bank expects revenue from the 3nm business to double in 2026, accounting for over 30% of total revenue, with high-performance computing (HPC) demand accounting for about two-thirds of total 3nm demand. **Revenue growth rates for 2026 and 2027 are both expected to exceed 30%, with growth in 2026 mainly constrained by supply.** Against the backdrop of strong demand and Taiwan Semiconductor accelerating capacity expansion, the bank expects revenue growth rates in USD terms for 2026/2027 to be 35%/30%, driven by increased 3nm demand, growth in advanced packaging demand, and faster introduction of 2nm in 2027. Morgan Stanley stated that overall demand in 2026 will still exceed supply, and Taiwan Semiconductor is expanding its 3nm/4nm capacity through innovative solutions, such as utilizing 7nm fabs to assist with the backend metal layer process for 3nm Utilizing 28nm fabs to assist in the 5nm backend metal layer process; partially activating 3nm capacity of the P9 phase at Fab 18 ahead of schedule (Q4 2025). Therefore, the bank expects wafer shipments to grow by 8% year-on-year in 2026/2027, faster than the past two years. Benefiting from improvements in 3nm/2nm structures, an increased proportion of HPC in 3nm, and a price increase of 6%–10% for the same specifications, the average selling price (ASP) of wafers will continue to maintain a year-on-year growth rate of about 20%. Looking ahead to 2027, if electricity prices in Taiwan are raised again due to rising energy costs, advanced processes are expected to implement a further price increase of 4%–5% for the same specifications ### 相關股票 - [Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/TSM.US.md) - [Leverage Shares 2X Long TSM Daily ETF (TSMG.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/TSMG.US.md) - [SPDR S&P Semicon (XSD.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/XSD.US.md) - [VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SMH.US.md) - [GraniteShares 2x Long TSM Daily ETF (TSMU.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/TSMU.US.md) - [iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SOXX.US.md) - [Direxion Daily TSM Bull 2X Shares (TSMX.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/TSMX.US.md) - [Direxion Semicon Bull 3X (SOXL.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SOXL.US.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [1 reason why April 10 could be huge for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281631198.md) - [TSMC Gets Nod to Deploy 3nm Process at Japan Fab](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281343240.md) - [TSMC's unit TSMC Global acquires fixed-income securities for $19.8 mln](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281340806.md) - [Global Trust Asset Management LLC Sells 1,877 Shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. $TSM](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281682711.md) - [TSMC faces broad 3nm capacity shortage, fueling supply chain battle](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/280962010.md)