--- title: "儘管存在風險，估值和擴張計劃可能會推動酒店巨頭的收益增長" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281644537.md" description: "酒店行業因地緣政治緊張局勢面臨挑戰，股價大幅下跌。分析師預測儘管可用房間收入（RevPAR）預期較低，但股價有潛在反彈的可能。ITC Hotels 計劃進行大規模擴張，而 IHCL 預計儘管近期取消訂單，仍將實現適度增長。Chalet Hotel 在運營利潤增長方面表現良好，而 Lemon Tree 則因翻修面臨困難。Ventive Hospitality 計劃到 FY30 將其房間數量翻倍，得到黑石集團的支持。總體而言，儘管當前存在不確定性，中期前景依然積極" datetime: "2026-04-03T06:05:14.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281644537.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281644537.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281644537.md) --- # 儘管存在風險，估值和擴張計劃可能會推動酒店巨頭的收益增長 The share prices of hotel companies have corrected sharply due to the Iran war. Average room rates or ARR and occupancy may drop in Q4FY26 as foreign arrivals dwindled. The Q1FY27 performance will depend on geopolitics, and April has seen some cancellations. A partial offset may come due to a shift of big-ticket events planned in the Middle East. Other than that, IPL and many sectoral expos are on the schedule. Among metros, Delhi (and Gurugram, Noida), Mumbai and Kolkata saw weak revenue per available room or RevPAR performance in January and February. Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kochi, Goa and Chandigarh did see growth. Bengaluru and Ahmedabad delivered average RevPAR in Q4. The current stock prices discount very low RevPAR over prolonged periods and, hence, there could be a sharp rebound. A prolonged conflict and elevated airfares may, however, hurt. Investors are braced for tepid demand and high uncertainty. Analysts have cut operating profit expectations and valuations, but medium-term prospects are structurally positive. Among listed players, ITC Hotels has luxury, upper-upscale and mid-market formats, with over 150 hotels and 90 destinations. This is reinforced by the Marriott alliance and Club ITC, supporting higher ARRs. The portfolio mix is shifting towards higher-yielding formats. By FY29, ITC Hotels may scale up (expand) by over 400 owned keys and over 3,700 managed keys. The proprietary cloud-based Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS) enables lower-cost onboarding of managed hotels, reducing setup costs by 50 per cent. The company could achieve 11.5 per cent revenue growth till FY29, including a 2.5-times rise in management fees. The food and beverages or F&B platform contributed 40 per cent of revenue in FY25. Memberships and experiential offerings are also set to grow three times over the next five years, which will add to the topline and aid significant margin expansion. One risk is revenue concentration in metros, apart from geopolitical tensions. IHCL’s share price has corrected over 20 per cent over the past six months. In Q4FY26, operating profit is likely to grow by 10–11 per cent year-on-year, which is around 250 basis points below prior growth rates. So far, the cancellations impact on Q4FY26 looks limited. As per management, January–February bookings were strong due to events such as the ICC World Cup and the AI Summit. There have been some cancellations in March. On management fees, the company expects a negative impact on its three Dubai hotels. Overall, given 200 hotels under management contracts, there may be moderate management fee growth. In FY27, IHCL could benefit from a low base in several FY26 quarters. There could be 200–300 basis points topline contribution from new acquisitions and 200–300 basis points topline addition from new rooms added in Frankfurt, Varanasi and Ekta Nagar, and mid-high teen management fee growth from new additions. FY27 could also see some margin gains. Chalet Hotel had a good showing in Q3FY26. Both business hotels and resorts witnessed improvement in RevPAR. Chalet’s operational portfolio has 3,389 keys, with another 1,180 keys in the pipeline. Consensus expects over 20 per cent operating profit growth till FY30. In FY27, earnings growth could be in the mid-teens, with acceleration in FY28. Consolidated revenue was ₹5,817 crore (up 27 per cent year-on-year) and operating profit was ₹265 crore (up 30 per cent year-on-year). The ARR improved to ₹14,970 per day (up 16 per cent year-on-year and up 23 per cent quarter-on-quarter) in Q3FY26. But occupancy was soft at 68 per cent, down 230 basis points year-on-year. Lemon Tree saw Q3FY26 earnings impacted by higher operating expenses, and renovations and tech investments will continue to impact earnings in FY27 and taper off in FY28. Lemon Tree has a pipeline of 9,400 managed keys, to be commissioned by 2030. A transition to new executive management and the outcome of the listing of the asset ownership business (Fleur) may weigh on sentiment. Despite the drags, earnings per share or EPS could grow at 25 per cent in FY27 and over 30 per cent in FY28, and operating profit margin should sustain at over 50.6 per cent. Ventive Hospitality is scaling to a footprint across India, backed by Blackstone’s joint ownership. The company is targeting doubling of keys from 2,036 in FY25 to 4,000+ by FY30. Recent takeovers of Hilton Goa Resort and Soho Hospitality India indicate the aim of scaling rapidly. Post its IPO-related ₹1,400 crore deleveraging, lower interest costs (Rs 15–20 crore per annum) will support free cash flow conversion. 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