--- title: "摩根大通計算世界達到原油運營最低水平還需要多長時間" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281656835.md" description: "摩根大通的商品分析師 Natasha Kaneva 強調，由於伊朗戰爭，能源危機迫在眉睫，預計全球石油和液化天然氣市場將出現延遲的供應衝擊。隨着貨物順利抵達目的地而未來交付卻未能實現，報告分析了全球能源儲備在耗盡之前能夠維持多久。這種情況與 COVID 期間的連續性中斷相似，影響因地區而異，取決於運輸時間和庫存水平" datetime: "2026-04-03T18:37:24.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281656835.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281656835.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281656835.md) --- # 摩根大通計算世界達到原油運營最低水平還需要多長時間 One week ago, we first presented our subscribers with a striking map created by JPMorgan's commodity analyst Natasha Kaneva, which showed the delayed physical commodity shockwave emerging from the Iran war that would slowly - or very fast for some demand-destroying Asian countries - spread around the globe as oil/LNG carrying ships that departed the gulf weeks ago reach their destinations, with no future deliveries in tow. As Kaneva explained it, "much like during COVID, the shock unfolds sequentially rather than simultaneously—**a rolling supply disruption moving westward, dictated by shipping times and buffered unevenly by regional inventories."** Fast forward one week, when overnight JPM's commodity expert published the next_must-read_ report in the unfolding energy crisis series (_available to pro subs)_, this one looking at the obvious next step: **once new supplies end, how long will global energy reserves and buffers last before they are drained.** ### 相關股票 - [561760.CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/561760.CN.md) - [03097.HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/03097.HK.md) - [UNG.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/UNG.US.md) - [USO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/USO.US.md) - [BP.UK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/BP.UK.md) - [563150.CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/563150.CN.md) - [LNGZ.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/LNGZ.US.md) - [JPM.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/JPM.US.md) - [XOP.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/XOP.US.md) - [XES.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/XES.US.md) - [IXC.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IXC.US.md) - [513350.CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/513350.CN.md) - [VDE.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/VDE.US.md) - [BNO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/BNO.US.md) - [IEZ.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IEZ.US.md) - [OXY.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/OXY.US.md) - [159588.CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/159588.CN.md) - [159697.CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/159697.CN.md) - [JPX.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/JPX.US.md) - [XLE.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/XLE.US.md) - [CRAK.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/CRAK.US.md) - [SCO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/SCO.US.md) - [OIH.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/OIH.US.md) - [501018.CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/501018.CN.md) - [03175.HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/03175.HK.md) - [603353.CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/603353.CN.md) - [UCO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/UCO.US.md) - [IEO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IEO.US.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [花旗喊 Brent 原油上看 120 美元 油市低估中東風險](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286971527.md) - [美上週原油總庫存創紀錄暴跌 1780 萬桶 出口創新高](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/287096913.md) - [摩根大通在德國推出零售銀行服務](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/287067235.md) - [外資紛拓亞洲業務 城堡證券據報亞洲增聘 60 人 近半在香港](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/287206161.md) - [小摩投資銀行暨併購部主管：AI 正從「炒作」走向實際應用](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286928151.md)