--- title: "西亞的衝突可能會導致市場進入熊市節奏" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281715264.md" description: "正在進行的海灣戰爭，特別是圍繞伊朗的衝突，給市場帶來了顯著的風險，可能導致市場進入一個長期的熊市。這場衝突已經導致油價上漲和股票下跌，令人想起過去的金融危機。投資者面臨不確定性，他們在評估當前市場動盪是淺層熊市還是深層熊市。持續的通貨膨脹和供應鏈中斷的潛在風險可能進一步加劇經濟挑戰，導致市場波動的循環和信心的削弱" datetime: "2026-04-05T08:25:45.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281715264.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/281715264.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/281715264.md) --- # 西亞的衝突可能會導致市場進入熊市節奏 There are two types of bear markets. The first is a shallow one: A sharp fall initially, but then the subsequent selloffs are less intensive. Everything gets resolved in four to five months. For almost a decade, India and the rest of the world have got used to this kind. The second variant is a deep bear market, which arrives in instalments, making despairing new lows over months and sometimes years. These are interrupted by powerful rallies, each upswing offering just enough encouragement, until aftershocks appear from nowhere to puncture their optimism again. Each time the market is in a deep dive, investors have to judge: Are we in a shallow or a deep bear market? The answer comes from assessing how much of the trouble is from a single source. If it is, such as Donald Trump’s tariff war, it would be a shallow bear market. If the sources are multifarious and locked in a vicious cycle, as they were in the 2008 global financial crisis, which affected too many institutions and countries, it would be a prolonged bear market. The present Gulf War is perhaps in the second category. ### 相關股票 - [XES.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/XES.US.md) - [159697.CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/159697.CN.md) - [BNO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/BNO.US.md) - [OXY.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/OXY.US.md) - [OIH.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/OIH.US.md) - [CRAK.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/CRAK.US.md) - [USO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/USO.US.md) - [XLE.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/XLE.US.md) - [03097.HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/03097.HK.md) - [IXC.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IXC.US.md) - [VDE.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/VDE.US.md) - [BP.UK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/BP.UK.md) - [159181.CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/159181.CN.md) - [603353.CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/603353.CN.md) - [IEO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IEO.US.md) - [XOP.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/XOP.US.md) - [IEZ.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IEZ.US.md) - [ICLN.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/ICLN.US.md) - [UCO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/UCO.US.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [花旗喊 Brent 原油上看 120 美元 油市低估中東風險](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286971527.md) - [中東局勢現轉機 國際油價大跌](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/287123473.md) - [美上週原油總庫存創紀錄暴跌 1780 萬桶 出口創新高](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/287096913.md) - [美國上週原油庫存減少 786 萬桶](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/287085193.md) - [鉅亨速報 - Factset 最新調查：菲利浦 66(PSX-US) EPS 預估上修至 17.36 元，預估目標價為 192.50 元](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286961725.md)