<p>要點：</p>
<ul>
<li>ASX 大型股的漲幅遠超整體市場，造成前所未有的估值差距，並引發了關於高端市場是否被高估的質疑。</li>
<li>儘管估值偏高，券商仍然在少數 ASX 20 股票中看到選擇性的上漲潛力，篩選出強烈買入評級和至少 10% 的上漲潛力。</li>
<li>Goodman Group (GMG)、QBE Insurance (QBE) 和 Sigma Healthcare (SIG) 被視為共識買入的優質選擇，受益於涵蓋人工智能基礎設施、保險韌性和藥房擴張的結構性增長主題。</li>
</ul>
<p>在中東持續衝突的陰影下，ASX 的一個有趣趨勢是澳大利亞大型股與市場其他部分之間的極端脱節。</p>
<p>儘管二月份的財報季波動較大，ASX 仍上漲了 3%，但這一漲幅完全是由高端市場推動的。</p>
<p>正如 Auscap 的 Will Mumford 在最近的採訪中告訴我的那樣，&#34;二月份 ASX 20 上漲了約 7.5%，而 ASX 的其他部分則下跌了。&#34;</p>
<p>這種戲劇性的市場脱節導致 ASX 最大股票與 ASX 200 其他股票之間的市盈率差距達到了前所未有的水平。</p>
<p>（來源：FactSet，Auscap）</p>
<p>Auscap 的 Tim Carleton 表示，這使得 ASX 200 除 ASX 20 外的其他部分成為價值投資者的肥沃獵場。</p>
<p>這為我們認為非常高質量且將隨着時間推移實現強勁盈利增長的公司提供了許多機會。</p>
<p>但在高端市場是否還有剩餘價值呢？</p>
<p>為了找出答案，我們對 ASX 20 進行了篩選，過濾條件如下：</p>
<ul>
<li>被 Market Index 的券商共識工具評為強烈買入</li>
<li>至少有 10% 的上漲潛力</li>
</ul>
<p>不出所料，ASX 20 中大多數股票被券商給予了賣出或持有評級。</p>
<p>但有三隻 ASX 股票被券商認為仍然提供良好的上漲潛力，並且是強烈共識買入。</p>
<p>Goodman Group</p>
<ul>
<li>券商評級：
<ul>
<li>7 買入，1 持有，0 賣出</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>共識潛力：
<ul>
<li>31.92%</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p>工業和基礎設施房地產開發商 Goodman Group 堅定地與人工智能發展相結合，目前正在從工業專業公司轉型為數據中心開發商。</p>
<p>儘管其最近的業績超出預期，但由於缺乏關於數據中心租賃的更新和不確定的盈利增長，可能導致其表現不佳。</p>
<p>Goodman Group 1 年圖表（來源：Market Index）</p>
<p>摩根士丹利對 GMG 維持增持評級，並認為市場低估了公司即將產生的盈利事件，特別是在確保其歐洲數據中心開發的客户合同方面。</p>
<p>如果能夠成功獲得所需的合同，摩根士丹利認為 GMG 可以解鎖多年的盈利靈活性，數據中心的盈利可能會在市場預期之前開始顯現。儘管它已下調了 FY27 和 FY28 的盈利預期，但券商仍預測在此期間 EPS 將強勁增長。</p>
<p>在 Commsec 的特別財報季節版《買入、持有、賣出》中，David Lloyd 和 Dushko Bajic 也將 GMG 評為買入。</p>
<p>QBE Insurance</p>
<ul>
<li>券商評級：
<ul>
<li>8 買入，0 持有，0 賣出</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>共識潛力：
<ul>
<li>12.47%</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p>QBE Insurance 在二月份報告了強勁的 FY25 業績，淨利潤達到 21 億美元，調整後的股本回報率接近 20%。</p>
<p>但保險業在市場對人工智能干擾的恐懼中成為了更令人驚訝的受害者，這導致 QBE 在過去一年中在行業層面和 ASX 200 的其他部分表現不佳。</p>
<p>QBE Insurance 1 年圖表（來源：Market Index）</p>
<p>但與被捲入所謂 SaaSpocalypse 的軟件股票不同，有論據表明保險業更能抵禦人工智能的影響。</p>
<p>正如我的同事 Carl Capolingua 關於人工智能引發的保險拋售所言，&#34;目前，市場似乎在定價最壞的情況。&#34;</p>
<p>Will Mumford 認為，考慮到保險行業的複雜性和細微差別，市場可能反應過度——這是人工智能可能難以處理的事情。</p>
<p>這是一個相當複雜的價值鏈。這些都是高風險領域，涉及複雜的監管和重要的人際關係。如果您的保險政策出現問題，您希望有人可以溝通並承擔責任。</p>
<p>ETF Shares 的 William Taylor 認為 QBE 是一個價值投資，同時也是利率上升的潛在受益者。</p>
<p>&#34;QBE 正在積極重新定價其保費以保護利潤，&#34;他寫道。&#34;這種向低波動和穩定、高質量利潤的過渡反映了我們在全球範圍內看到的收穫階段，在這一階段，運營紀律將結構性變化轉化為盈利。&#34;</p>
<p>摩根士丹利將 QBE 視為其&#34;首選的人工智能投資，具有進攻性增長選項，&#34;並指出來自網絡和數據中心的保費增長、有限的人工智能干擾風險以及高成本節約機會是潛在催化劑。</p>
<p>Sigma Healthcare</p>
<ul>
<li>券商評級：
<ul>
<li>7 買入，3 持有，0 賣出</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>共識潛力：
<ul>
<li>19.70%</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p>製藥分銷和零售商 Sigma Healthcare 在過去 12 個月中因澳大利亞醫療保健的整體拋售而受到影響，儘管有強勁的順風和防禦性定位。</p>
<p>Sigma Healthcare 1 年圖表（來源：Market Index）</p>
<p>它在 2025 年與 Chemist Warehouse Group 合併，Chemist Warehouse 網絡的銷售增長了 17.2%，達到 51 億美元，並承諾國際擴張。</p>
<p>IML 的 Daniel Moore 選擇 Sigma 作為他 2026 年的兩個推薦之一，原因是 Chemist Warehouse 的預期增長。</p>
<p>Chemist Warehouse 是高增長藥房行業的一個類別殺手格式。我們預計他們將繼續以折扣優惠的方式將銷售額增長遠超行業水平。</p>
<p>Marcus Today's Henry Jennings 也將 SIG 提出作為他的新 ASX 藍籌股建議之一，Morgans 將該股票加入其高信念的&#34;最佳創意&#34;名單。</p>

昆士蘭保險(ADR)

<p>ASX 大型股的表現優於更廣泛的市場，這引發了對高估值的擔憂。儘管如此，分析師仍然將 Goodman Group、QBE Insurance 和 Sigma Healthcare 視為強烈買入的選項，預計有超過 10% 的上漲潛力。Goodman Group 正在向數據中心轉型，QBE Insurance 在人工智能擔憂中展現出韌性，而 Sigma Healthcare 則具備增長潛力。ASX 20 的表現與 ASX 其他部分形成鮮明對比，為價值投資者在更廣泛的指數中創造了機會。總體而言，儘管估值偏高，ASX 20 仍然存在選擇性的上漲空間</p>

<p>Key points:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要點：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>ASX large caps have surged far ahead of the broader market, creating an unprecedented valuation gap and raising questions about whether the top end of town is now overvalued.</li>
<li>Despite stretched valuations, brokers still see selective upside in a handful of ASX 20 names, screening for Strong Buy ratings and at least 10% upside potential.</li>
<li>Goodman Group (GMG), QBE Insurance (QBE) and Sigma Healthcare (SIG) stand out as consensus Buy ideas, supported by structural growth themes spanning AI infrastructure, insurance resilience, and pharmacy expansion.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>ASX 大型股的漲幅遠超整體市場，造成前所未有的估值差距，並引發了關於高端市場是否被高估的質疑。</li>
<li>儘管估值偏高，券商仍然在少數 ASX 20 股票中看到選擇性的上漲潛力，篩選出強烈買入評級和至少 10% 的上漲潛力。</li>
<li>Goodman Group (GMG)、QBE Insurance (QBE) 和 Sigma Healthcare (SIG) 被視為共識買入的優質選擇，受益於涵蓋人工智能基礎設施、保險韌性和藥房擴張的結構性增長主題。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>One of the interesting ASX trends that has been overshadowed by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has been the extreme dislocation between Australia's large cap stocks and the rest of the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在中東持續衝突的陰影下，ASX 的一個有趣趨勢是澳大利亞大型股與市場其他部分之間的極端脱節。</p>
</div><p>While the ASX was up 3% over February, despite a volatile reporting season, it was driven entirely by the top end of town.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管二月份的財報季波動較大，ASX 仍上漲了 3%，但這一漲幅完全是由高端市場推動的。</p>
</div><p>As Auscap's Will Mumford told me in a recent interview, &#34;the ASX 20 over February was up about 7.5% and every other part of the ASX was down.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如 Auscap 的 Will Mumford 在最近的採訪中告訴我的那樣，&#34;二月份 ASX 20 上漲了約 7.5%，而 ASX 的其他部分則下跌了。&#34;</p>
</div><p>And this dramatic market dislocation has created a situation where the P/E spread between the ASX's biggest stocks and the rest of the ASX 200 is now at unprecedented levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種戲劇性的市場脱節導致 ASX 最大股票與 ASX 200 其他股票之間的市盈率差距達到了前所未有的水平。</p>
</div><p>(Source: FactSet, Auscap)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（來源：FactSet，Auscap）</p>
</div><p>Auscap's Tim Carleton says it's made the rest of the index (the ASX 200 Ex-ASX 20) a fertile hunting ground for value investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Auscap 的 Tim Carleton 表示，這使得 ASX 200 除 ASX 20 外的其他部分成為價值投資者的肥沃獵場。</p>
</div><p>That’s throwing up a lot of opportunities in companies that we think are very, very high quality and will deliver very strong earnings growth over time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這為我們認為非常高質量且將隨着時間推移實現強勁盈利增長的公司提供了許多機會。</p>
</div><p>But is there any value remaining right at the top?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在高端市場是否還有剩餘價值呢？</p>
</div><p>To find out, we've run a screen on the ASX 20, filtered by the following criteria:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>為了找出答案，我們對 ASX 20 進行了篩選，過濾條件如下：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Rated a Strong Buy by Market Index's Broker Consensus tool</li>
<li>Have at least 10% upside potential</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>被 Market Index 的券商共識工具評為強烈買入</li>
<li>至少有 10% 的上漲潛力</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Unsurprisingly, the majority of stocks in the ASX 20 have been given Sell or Hold ratings by brokers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不出所料，ASX 20 中大多數股票被券商給予了賣出或持有評級。</p>
</div><p>But there are three ASX stocks the brokers believe are still offering good upside potential and are a strong consensus Buy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但有三隻 ASX 股票被券商認為仍然提供良好的上漲潛力，並且是強烈共識買入。</p>
</div><p>Goodman Group</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Goodman Group</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Broker ratings:
<ul>
<li>7 Buy, 1 Hold, 0 Sell</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Consensus potential:
<ul>
<li>31.92%</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>券商評級：
<ul>
<li>7 買入，1 持有，0 賣出</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>共識潛力：
<ul>
<li>31.92%</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Industrial and infrastructure real estate developer Goodman Group has firmly hitched its wagon to the AI train, and is currently transitioning from industrial specialist to data centre developer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>工業和基礎設施房地產開發商 Goodman Group 堅定地與人工智能發展相結合，目前正在從工業專業公司轉型為數據中心開發商。</p>
</div><p>While it beat expectations with its recent results, it arguably dropped off a lack of updates on its data centre leasing and uncertain earnings growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管其最近的業績超出預期，但由於缺乏關於數據中心租賃的更新和不確定的盈利增長，可能導致其表現不佳。</p>
</div><p>Goodman Group 1-year chart (Source: Market Index)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Goodman Group 1 年圖表（來源：Market Index）</p>
</div><p>Morgan Stanley maintain an Overweight rating on GMG, and believes the market is underestimating the company's upcoming profit-generating events, especially around securing customer contracts for its European data centre developments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利對 GMG 維持增持評級，並認為市場低估了公司即將產生的盈利事件，特別是在確保其歐洲數據中心開發的客户合同方面。</p>
</div><p>Provided it can successfully secure the requisite contracts, Morgan Stanley believes GMG can unlock multi-year earnings flexibility, and data centre earnings may begin to filter through ahead of market expectations. While it has revised FY27 and FY28 earnings downwards, the broker still forecasts strong EPS growth over that period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果能夠成功獲得所需的合同，摩根士丹利認為 GMG 可以解鎖多年的盈利靈活性，數據中心的盈利可能會在市場預期之前開始顯現。儘管它已下調了 FY27 和 FY28 的盈利預期，但券商仍預測在此期間 EPS 將強勁增長。</p>
</div><p>GMG was also rated a Buy by both David Lloyd and Dushko Bajic in Commsec's special reporting season edition of Buy Hold Sell.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Commsec 的特別財報季節版《買入、持有、賣出》中，David Lloyd 和 Dushko Bajic 也將 GMG 評為買入。</p>
</div><p>QBE Insurance</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>QBE Insurance</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Broker ratings:
<ul>
<li>8 Buy, 0 Hold, 0 Sell</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Consensus potential:
<ul>
<li>12.47%</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>券商評級：
<ul>
<li>8 買入，0 持有，0 賣出</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>共識潛力：
<ul>
<li>12.47%</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</div><p>QBE Insurance reported strong FY25 results in February, with NPAT hitting US$2.1 billion, and adjusted return on equity just shy of 20%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>QBE Insurance 在二月份報告了強勁的 FY25 業績，淨利潤達到 21 億美元，調整後的股本回報率接近 20%。</p>
</div><p>But insurance has been one of the more surprising casualties of the market's AI disruption fears, and meant QBE has underperformed on both a sector level and against the rest of the ASX 200 over the last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但保險業在市場對人工智能干擾的恐懼中成為了更令人驚訝的受害者，這導致 QBE 在過去一年中在行業層面和 ASX 200 的其他部分表現不佳。</p>
</div><p>QBE Insurance 1-year chart (Source: Market Index)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>QBE Insurance 1 年圖表（來源：Market Index）</p>
</div><p>But unlike the software stocks caught up in the so-called SaaSpocalypse, there's arguments to suggest insurance is better insulated against AI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但與被捲入所謂 SaaSpocalypse 的軟件股票不同，有論據表明保險業更能抵禦人工智能的影響。</p>
</div><p>As my colleague Carl Capolingua argued regarding the AI-led insurance selloff, &#34;for now, markets appear to be pricing in the worst-case scenario.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如我的同事 Carl Capolingua 關於人工智能引發的保險拋售所言，&#34;目前，市場似乎在定價最壞的情況。&#34;</p>
</div><p>Will Mumford believes the market may have overreacted given the complexities and nuances of the insurance industry - something AI may be ill-equipped to handle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Will Mumford 認為，考慮到保險行業的複雜性和細微差別，市場可能反應過度——這是人工智能可能難以處理的事情。</p>
</div><p>It's quite a complex value chain. These are high stakes areas with complex regulation and where relationships matter. If anything goes wrong with your insurance policy, you want someone to talk to and to blame.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這是一個相當複雜的價值鏈。這些都是高風險領域，涉及複雜的監管和重要的人際關係。如果您的保險政策出現問題，您希望有人可以溝通並承擔責任。</p>
</div><p>ETF Shares' William Taylor sees QBE as a value play, as well as a potential beneficiary of rising interest rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ETF Shares 的 William Taylor 認為 QBE 是一個價值投資，同時也是利率上升的潛在受益者。</p>
</div><p>&#34;QBE is aggressively repricing its premiums to protect margins,&#34; he wrote. &#34;This transition toward lower volatility and stable, high quality profits mirrors the harvest phase we are seeing globally, where operational discipline turns structural shifts into an earnings.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;QBE 正在積極重新定價其保費以保護利潤，&#34;他寫道。&#34;這種向低波動和穩定、高質量利潤的過渡反映了我們在全球範圍內看到的收穫階段，在這一階段，運營紀律將結構性變化轉化為盈利。&#34;</p>
</div><p>Morgan Stanley considers QBE its &#34;preferred AI play with offensive growth options,&#34; citing higher premium growth from cyber and data centres, limited AI disruption risk, and high cost savings opportunities as potential catalysts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利將 QBE 視為其&#34;首選的人工智能投資，具有進攻性增長選項，&#34;並指出來自網絡和數據中心的保費增長、有限的人工智能干擾風險以及高成本節約機會是潛在催化劑。</p>
</div><p>Sigma Healthcare</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Sigma Healthcare</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Broker ratings:
<ul>
<li>7 Buy, 3 Hold, 0 Sell</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Consensus potential:
<ul>
<li>19.70%</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>券商評級：
<ul>
<li>7 買入，3 持有，0 賣出</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>共識潛力：
<ul>
<li>19.70%</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Pharmaceutical distributor and retailer Sigma Healthcare has suffered as part of a broader selloff in Australian healthcare over the last 12 months, despite strong tailwinds and defensive positioning.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>製藥分銷和零售商 Sigma Healthcare 在過去 12 個月中因澳大利亞醫療保健的整體拋售而受到影響，儘管有強勁的順風和防禦性定位。</p>
</div><p>Sigma Healthcare 1-year chart (Source: Market Index)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Sigma Healthcare 1 年圖表（來源：Market Index）</p>
</div><p>It merged with Chemist Warehouse Group in February 2025, with the Chemist Warehouse network growing sales 17.2% to $5.1 billion and promising international expansion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它在 2025 年與 Chemist Warehouse Group 合併，Chemist Warehouse 網絡的銷售增長了 17.2%，達到 51 億美元，並承諾國際擴張。</p>
</div><p>IML's Daniel Moore chose Sigma as one of his two picks for 2026 due to expected growth from Chemist Warehouse.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>IML 的 Daniel Moore 選擇 Sigma 作為他 2026 年的兩個推薦之一，原因是 Chemist Warehouse 的預期增長。</p>
</div><p>Chemist Warehouse is a category killer format in the high-growth pharmacy sector. We expect they will continue to grow their sales well above the industry with their discount offer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Chemist Warehouse 是高增長藥房行業的一個類別殺手格式。我們預計他們將繼續以折扣優惠的方式將銷售額增長遠超行業水平。</p>
</div><p>Marcus Today's Henry Jennings also put SIG forward as one of his suggestions for new ASX blue chips and Morgans added the stock to its high conviction 'Best Ideas' list.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Marcus Today's Henry Jennings 也將 SIG 提出作為他的新 ASX 藍籌股建議之一，Morgans 將該股票加入其高信念的&#34;最佳創意&#34;名單。</p>
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目前是否有任何 ASX 前 20 名股票值得強力買入？