<p>美元/日元在關鍵的 160 阻力位停滯後顯示出疲態，熊市背離暗示可能出現回調。同時，日經 225 期貨在 5 萬以上構建了一個良好的基礎，受到日元走強前景的支持。</p>
<p>儘管地緣政治風險可能在短期內引發波動並導致價格劇烈波動，但兩個市場的技術形態指向可能的動能轉變——美元/日元下跌，日經上漲。</p>
<p><strong>查看相關分析：</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>澳元/美元展望：特朗普講話可能引發突破或下跌</li>
<li>美元展望：四月的熊市季節性與中東變數相遇</li>
<li>外匯期貨持倉：美元、歐元/美元、美元/日元 | COT 報告</li>
</ul>
<h2>美元/日元技術分析：美元對日元</h2>
<h3>美元/日元在 160 的拒絕信號潛在的低高點</h3>
<p>週二形成了一根小的射擊之星蠟燭，但更重要的是它測試並尊重了 160 作為阻力。這為交易者在關鍵水平上形成低高點留下了潛力，即使這僅僅是向下修正至略低於 159 的 20 日 EMA 的信號。</p>
<p>注意到在 3 月高點前，RSI（14）和 RSI（2）均出現了熊市背離，這警告了潛在的頂部。而且，周線圖上上週顯示出一根拉長的吊人蠟燭，我們可能需要警惕日元走強和美元走弱，這可能導致美元/日元從當前水平下跌。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ"/></p>
<h3>地緣政治和波動風險可能驅動劇烈波動</h3>
<p>當然，這樣的走勢假設伊朗局勢出現積極進展。雖然我們希望情況確實如此，但交易者也應該為短期內的雙向波動做好準備，這可能導致價格劇烈波動，然後才會出現真正的走勢。但從純技術的角度來看，我的偏見是短期內向下。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260408081513-1.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260408081513-1.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>來源：ICE，TradingView</em></p>
<h2>日經 225 期貨（NK）技術分析</h2>
<h3>日經 225 在 5 萬以上構建看漲結構</h3>
<p>如果日元走強並使美元/日元下跌，這在短期內可能對日經是看漲的。這正是圖表所暗示的，即使該形態仍然容易受到劇烈波動的影響。</p>
<p>日經期貨圖表顯示在 5 萬以上形成了雙底，隨後多頭在上週推動了為期三天的反彈。雖然在 55k 附近遇到了阻力，但回調幅度較小，價格走勢指向可能形成看漲旗形。此外，注意到週二的看漲針形蠟燭，顯示出本週範圍內的需求以及價格向上突破的願望。</p>
<h3>55k 突破是解鎖進一步上漲的關鍵</h3>
<p>目前，我的偏見仍然看漲，只要價格保持在週四的低點（52,230）之上，突破 55k 是關鍵的上漲觸發點。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260408081551-2.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260408081551-2.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>來源：CME，TradingView</em></p>
<p>查看完整的_經濟日曆_</p>
<p>-- 作者：Matt Simpson</p>
<p>在 Twitter 上關注 Matt @cLeverEdge</p>

1466

1346

德銀美元指數 做多 - PowerShares

<p>美元/日元在 160 的阻力位顯示出疲態，暗示可能出現回調，而日經 225 期貨在 5 萬以上構建底部，表明看漲前景。地緣政治風險可能導致波動，但技術形態顯示出動能可能發生轉變，美元/日元可能下跌，而日經則可能上漲。相對強弱指數（RSI）上的看跌背離對美元/日元發出警告，而日經突破 5.5 萬可能會開啓進一步上漲的空間。交易者應為近期可能出現的劇烈價格波動做好準備</p>

<p>USD/JPY is showing signs of fatigue after stalling at the key 160 resistance level, with bearish divergence hinting at a potential pullback. At the same time, Nikkei 225 futures are building a constructive base above 50k, supported by the prospect of a stronger Japanese yen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元/日元在關鍵的 160 阻力位停滯後顯示出疲態，熊市背離暗示可能出現回調。同時，日經 225 期貨在 5 萬以上構建了一個良好的基礎，受到日元走強前景的支持。</p>
</div><p>While geopolitical risks could inject volatility and trigger whipsaw price action in the near term, the technical setups across both markets point to a possible shift in momentum—USD/JPY lower and Nikkei higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管地緣政治風險可能在短期內引發波動並導致價格劇烈波動，但兩個市場的技術形態指向可能的動能轉變——美元/日元下跌，日經上漲。</p>
</div><p><strong>View related analysis:</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>查看相關分析：</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li>AUD/USD Outlook: Trump Address Could Trigger Breakout or Breakdown</li>
<li>US Dollar Outlook: Bearish April Seasonality Meets Middle East Wildcard</li>
<li>FX Futures Positioning: US Dollar, EUR/USD, USD/JPY | COT report</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>澳元/美元展望：特朗普講話可能引發突破或下跌</li>
<li>美元展望：四月的熊市季節性與中東變數相遇</li>
<li>外匯期貨持倉：美元、歐元/美元、美元/日元 | COT 報告</li>
</ul>
</div><h2>USD/JPY Technical Analysis: US Dollar vs Japanese Yen</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美元/日元技術分析：美元對日元</h2>
</div><h3>USD/JPY Rejection at 160 Signals Potential Lower High</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>美元/日元在 160 的拒絕信號潛在的低高點</h3>
</div><p>A small shooting star candle formed on Tuesday, but what makes it more significant is that it tested – and respected – 160 as resistance. This leaves the potential for a lower high to form at a key level for traders, even if it only signals some mean reversion towards the 20-day EMA just below 159.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週二形成了一根小的射擊之星蠟燭，但更重要的是它測試並尊重了 160 作為阻力。這為交易者在關鍵水平上形成低高點留下了潛力，即使這僅僅是向下修正至略低於 159 的 20 日 EMA 的信號。</p>
</div><p>Note the bearish divergence on both RSI (14) and RSI (2) heading into the March high, which warned of a potential top. And with the weekly chart showing an elongated hanging man candle last week, we may need to be on guard for some Japanese yen strength and US dollar weakness, which could see USD/JPY fall from current levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>注意到在 3 月高點前，RSI（14）和 RSI（2）均出現了熊市背離，這警告了潛在的頂部。而且，周線圖上上週顯示出一根拉長的吊人蠟燭，我們可能需要警惕日元走強和美元走弱，這可能導致美元/日元從當前水平下跌。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg/query-ZXh0ZW5zaW9uPXdlYnAmaGFzaD0wMkJBNjVFNjVCQjlGNTA4QzVBOTFEQkIzQUZCNTg4RQ" alt="" original-src="https://www.forex.com/en-us/-/media/project/gain-capital/forex/banners/campaigns/whitepapers/2025/FX-White-Paper-USD-JPY-V2.jpg?extension=webp&amp;hash=02BA65E65BB9F508C5A91DBB3AFB588E"/></p>
<h3>Geopolitics and Volatility Risks Could Drive Whipsaw Moves</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>地緣政治和波動風險可能驅動劇烈波動</h3>
</div><p>Of course, such a move assumes positive developments on the Iran situation. While we hope that proves to be the case, traders should also be prepared for two-way volatility in the near term, which could lead to whipsaw price action before the real move unfolds. But from a purely technical perspective, my bias is for the downside over the near term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當然，這樣的走勢假設伊朗局勢出現積極進展。雖然我們希望情況確實如此，但交易者也應該為短期內的雙向波動做好準備，這可能導致價格劇烈波動，然後才會出現真正的走勢。但從純技術的角度來看，我的偏見是短期內向下。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260408081513-1.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260408081513-1.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>Source: ICE, TradingView</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>來源：ICE，TradingView</em></p>
</div><h2>Nikkei 225 Futures (NK) Technical Analysis</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>日經 225 期貨（NK）技術分析</h2>
</div><h3>Nikkei 225 Builds Bullish Structure Above 50k</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>日經 225 在 5 萬以上構建看漲結構</h3>
</div><p>If the Japanese yen strengthens and sends USD/JPY lower, this could be bullish for the Nikkei in the near term. That is what the charts appear to be hinting at, even if the setup remains vulnerable to some nasty whipsaws.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果日元走強並使美元/日元下跌，這在短期內可能對日經是看漲的。這正是圖表所暗示的，即使該形態仍然容易受到劇烈波動的影響。</p>
</div><p>The Nikkei futures chart shows a double bottom forming above 50k before bulls drove a three-day rally last week. While resistance was met just below 55k, the pullback has been shallow, and price action points to the potential formation of a bull flag. Also, note the bullish pinbar on Tuesday which shows demand within this week’s range and a desire for prices to break higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日經期貨圖表顯示在 5 萬以上形成了雙底，隨後多頭在上週推動了為期三天的反彈。雖然在 55k 附近遇到了阻力，但回調幅度較小，價格走勢指向可能形成看漲旗形。此外，注意到週二的看漲針形蠟燭，顯示出本週範圍內的需求以及價格向上突破的願望。</p>
</div><h3>55k Break Key to Unlock Further Upside</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>55k 突破是解鎖進一步上漲的關鍵</h3>
</div><p>For now, my bias remains bullish while prices hold above Thursday’s low (52,230), with a break above 55k the key upside trigger.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，我的偏見仍然看漲，只要價格保持在週四的低點（52,230）之上，突破 55k 是關鍵的上漲觸發點。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260408081551-2.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://micms.stonex.com//sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20260408081551-2.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>Source: CME, TradingView</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>來源：CME，TradingView</em></p>
</div><p>View the full <em>economic calendar</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查看完整的_經濟日曆_</p>
</div><p>-- Written by Matt Simpson</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-- 作者：Matt Simpson</p>
</div><p>Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Twitter 上關注 Matt @cLeverEdge</p>
</div>

USD/JPY Outlook: US Dollar Stalls at 160 as Nikkei Eyes Gains

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Daiwa Securities Group, Inc.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc.

2 倍做空日元 ETF - ProShares

BlackRock, Inc.

日元指數 ETF - CurrencyShares

2 倍做多日圓 ETF - ProShares

Asset Management One Co., Ltd.

Simplex Financial Holdings Co., Ltd.

Japan Agricultural Cooperatives Group

Nomura Holdings, Inc.

彭博美元指數 做多 - WisdomTree

美元/日元前景：美元在 160 關口停滯不前，日經指數關注上漲趨勢