<p>週四，亞洲市場緊張不安，霍爾木茲海峽的緊張局勢重新引發投資者的不安，推動油價再次上漲，並重新喚起了對通脹、能源供應和利率前景的擔憂。</p>
<p>這種更加謹慎的語氣是在前一天的強勁反彈之後出現的，當時市場因對海灣地區緊張局勢可能緩解的希望而感到寬慰。</p>
<p>在伊朗表示它控制了霍爾木茲海峽並將對使用該航道的船隻徵收通行費後，這種樂觀情緒消退，這一舉動引發了對全球最重要能源走廊之一可能再次受到干擾的擔憂。</p>
<p>霍爾木茲海峽約佔全球石油和液化天然氣流量的五分之一，因此對該地區交通的任何威脅對全球市場尤其重要。https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/16/trump-demands-allies-secure-strait-of-hormuz-oil-iran.html</p>
<p><strong>霍爾木茲緊張局勢再度成為焦點</strong></p>
<p>隨着交易者重新評估供應緊張的風險，油價上漲。</p>
<p>美國原油上漲 2.82%，至每桶 96.99 美元，而布倫特原油上漲 2.14%，至 96.74 美元，部分扭轉了前一交易日的下跌，因為市場重新考慮了地緣政治風險溢價。</p>
<p>原油的反彈為該地區更廣泛的交易定下了基調。</p>
<p>在前一交易日因停火驅動的寬慰交易中買入的投資者被迫重新考慮停火是否足以穩定航運並控制衝突帶來的經濟影響。</p>
<p>結果是股票、貨幣和利率市場的情緒更加謹慎。</p>
<p><strong>股票失去動能</strong></p>
<p>日本日經 225 指數在週三上漲 5.4% 後幾乎沒有變化，表明早期的樂觀情緒已經開始減退。</p>
<p>韓國 KOSPI 指數下跌 0.4%，回吐了前一交易日的部分超額漲幅，交易者在風險偏好上變得更加挑剔。</p>
<p>美國期貨也指向一個較軟的開局。</p>
<p>標準普爾 500 期貨下跌 0.2%，而納斯達克 100 期貨同樣下滑，表明華爾街對最新事態發展也採取了更加謹慎的態度。</p>
<p>在歐洲，市場表現參差不齊，歐元區 STOXX 50 期貨小幅上漲，德國 DAX 期貨下跌，富時 100 期貨小幅走強。</p>
<p><strong>通脹擔憂再現</strong></p>
<p>油價的重新上漲使通脹再次成為市場敍事的中心。</p>
<p>能源價格的上漲迅速傳導至運輸、製造和家庭成本，投資者越來越擔心原油的再次持續上漲可能會使去通脹的故事變得複雜。</p>
<p>這一擔憂在最新的美聯儲紀要中得到了加強，紀要對經濟增長的態度基本中立，但顯示出越來越多的政策制定者認為如果通脹保持高位，可能需要提高利率。</p>
<p>市場逐漸削減了對降息的預期，聯邦基金期貨現在僅暗示今年剩餘時間內將有微小的降息。</p>
<p>這標誌着與僅幾周前更鴿派的假設相比的明顯轉變。</p>
<p><strong>債券和貨幣反映謹慎</strong></p>
<p>由於投資者權衡持續的能源通脹可能使政策保持更長時間緊縮，國債收益率保持在高位。</p>
<p>10 年期國債收益率為 4.29%，遠高於最新一輪地緣政治壓力期間的水平，這表明債券投資者不再相信單純的風險情緒疲軟足以使收益率下降。</p>
<p>貨幣市場也反映出這種不安的情緒。</p>
<p>美元整體變化不大，而歐元接近近期低點，日元作為傳統避險貨幣仍然受到關注。</p>
<p>黃金和石油均小幅上漲，另一個跡象表明投資者正在重建對進一步動盪風險的保護。</p>
<p><strong>市場關注的焦點</strong></p>
<p>目前，下一步的動向將取決於霍爾木茲周圍的緊張局勢是否進一步升級，或者最新的言辭是否更多是姿態而非政策。</p>
<p>任何對航運的具體干擾都將迅速加劇對供應、通脹和中央銀行剋制的擔憂。</p>
<p>這使得市場處於脆弱的狀態。</p>
<p>週三的寬慰反彈顯示出當升級威脅減退時情緒可以多麼迅速改善，但週四的交易同樣清晰地強調了相反的觀點。</p>

和順石油

西方石油

英國石油

<p>亞洲市場因霍爾木茲海峽的緊張局勢而感到不安，油價上漲並重新引發通脹擔憂。伊朗聲稱對該海峽的控制權，並計劃對船隻徵收通行費，這引發了對這一關鍵能源走廊可能出現中斷的擔憂。KOSPI 指數下跌 0.4%，而美國期貨則顯示出謹慎的開盤態勢。油價上漲重新點燃了通脹擔憂，複雜化了利率前景。投資者正密切關注局勢，以評估對供應和中央銀行政策的潛在影響</p>

<p>Asian markets were on edge on Thursday as renewed friction over the Strait of Hormuz unsettled investors, pushing oil prices higher again and reviving concerns about inflation, energy supplies and the interest-rate outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週四，亞洲市場緊張不安，霍爾木茲海峽的緊張局勢重新引發投資者的不安，推動油價再次上漲，並重新喚起了對通脹、能源供應和利率前景的擔憂。</p>
</div><p>The more cautious tone followed a sharp relief rally a day earlier, when markets had taken comfort from hopes that tensions in the Gulf might ease.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種更加謹慎的語氣是在前一天的強勁反彈之後出現的，當時市場因對海灣地區緊張局勢可能緩解的希望而感到寬慰。</p>
</div><p>That optimism faded after Iran said it was in control of the Strait of Hormuz and would seek a toll from vessels using the route, a move that raised fears of fresh disruption to one of the world’s most important energy corridors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在伊朗表示它控制了霍爾木茲海峽並將對使用該航道的船隻徵收通行費後，這種樂觀情緒消退，這一舉動引發了對全球最重要能源走廊之一可能再次受到干擾的擔憂。</p>
</div><p>The Strait of Hormuz carries about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows, making any threat to traffic there especially significant for global markets.https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/16/trump-demands-allies-secure-strait-of-hormuz-oil-iran.html</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>霍爾木茲海峽約佔全球石油和液化天然氣流量的五分之一，因此對該地區交通的任何威脅對全球市場尤其重要。https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/16/trump-demands-allies-secure-strait-of-hormuz-oil-iran.html</p>
</div><p><strong>Hormuz tensions return to the fore</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>霍爾木茲緊張局勢再度成為焦點</strong></p>
</div><p>Oil prices climbed as traders reassessed the risk of tighter supplies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着交易者重新評估供應緊張的風險，油價上漲。</p>
</div><p>US crude rose 2.82% to $96.99 a barrel, while Brent crude added 2.14% to $96.74, reversing part of the previous session’s decline as the market priced back in a geopolitical risk premium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國原油上漲 2.82%，至每桶 96.99 美元，而布倫特原油上漲 2.14%，至 96.74 美元，部分扭轉了前一交易日的下跌，因為市場重新考慮了地緣政治風險溢價。</p>
</div><p>That rebound in crude set the tone for broader trading across the region.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>原油的反彈為該地區更廣泛的交易定下了基調。</p>
</div><p>Investors who had spent the previous session buying into a ceasefire-driven relief trade were forced to reconsider whether the truce would be enough to stabilise shipping and contain the economic fallout from the conflict.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在前一交易日因停火驅動的寬慰交易中買入的投資者被迫重新考慮停火是否足以穩定航運並控制衝突帶來的經濟影響。</p>
</div><p>The result was a more defensive mood across equities, currencies and rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>結果是股票、貨幣和利率市場的情緒更加謹慎。</p>
</div><p><strong>Equities lose momentum</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>股票失去動能</strong></p>
</div><p>Japan’s Nikkei 225 was little changed after surging 5.4% on Wednesday, suggesting the earlier burst of optimism had already started to fade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本日經 225 指數在週三上漲 5.4% 後幾乎沒有變化，表明早期的樂觀情緒已經開始減退。</p>
</div><p>South Korea’s KOSPI slipped 0.4%, giving back some of the previous session’s outsized gains as traders grew more selective in their appetite for risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>韓國 KOSPI 指數下跌 0.4%，回吐了前一交易日的部分超額漲幅，交易者在風險偏好上變得更加挑剔。</p>
</div><p>US futures also pointed to a softer start.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國期貨也指向一個較軟的開局。</p>
</div><p>S&amp;P 500 futures were down 0.2%, while Nasdaq 100 futures slipped by the same margin, indicating that Wall Street was also taking a more cautious view of the latest developments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>標準普爾 500 期貨下跌 0.2%，而納斯達克 100 期貨同樣下滑，表明華爾街對最新事態發展也採取了更加謹慎的態度。</p>
</div><p>In Europe, the picture was mixed, with Euro STOXX 50 futures edging higher, German DAX futures falling and FTSE 100 futures modestly firmer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在歐洲，市場表現參差不齊，歐元區 STOXX 50 期貨小幅上漲，德國 DAX 期貨下跌，富時 100 期貨小幅走強。</p>
</div><p><strong>Inflation fears resurface</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>通脹擔憂再現</strong></p>
</div><p>The renewed rise in oil has put inflation back at the centre of the market narrative.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>油價的重新上漲使通脹再次成為市場敍事的中心。</p>
</div><p>Higher energy prices feed quickly into transport, manufacturing and household costs, and investors are increasingly worried that another sustained move up in crude could complicate the disinflation story.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>能源價格的上漲迅速傳導至運輸、製造和家庭成本，投資者越來越擔心原油的再次持續上漲可能會使去通脹的故事變得複雜。</p>
</div><p>That concern was reinforced by the latest Fed minutes, which struck a largely neutral tone on growth but showed that a growing number of policymakers saw a possible case for higher rates if inflation remained elevated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一擔憂在最新的美聯儲紀要中得到了加強，紀要對經濟增長的態度基本中立，但顯示出越來越多的政策制定者認為如果通脹保持高位，可能需要提高利率。</p>
</div><p>Markets have steadily pared back expectations for easing, with fed funds futures now implying only minimal cuts for the rest of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場逐漸削減了對降息的預期，聯邦基金期貨現在僅暗示今年剩餘時間內將有微小的降息。</p>
</div><p>That marks a clear shift from the more dovish assumptions seen only weeks ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這標誌着與僅幾周前更鴿派的假設相比的明顯轉變。</p>
</div><p><strong>Bonds and currencies reflect caution</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>債券和貨幣反映謹慎</strong></p>
</div><p>Treasury yields remained elevated as investors weighed the prospect that persistent energy inflation could keep policy tighter for longer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於投資者權衡持續的能源通脹可能使政策保持更長時間緊縮，國債收益率保持在高位。</p>
</div><p>The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.29%, well above levels seen earlier in the latest bout of geopolitical stress, suggesting bond investors are no longer convinced that weaker risk sentiment alone will be enough to bring yields down.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>10 年期國債收益率為 4.29%，遠高於最新一輪地緣政治壓力期間的水平，這表明債券投資者不再相信單純的風險情緒疲軟足以使收益率下降。</p>
</div><p>Currency markets also reflected the uneasy tone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>貨幣市場也反映出這種不安的情緒。</p>
</div><p>The dollar was little changed overall, while the euro held close to a recent low and the yen remained in focus as a traditional haven currency.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元整體變化不大，而歐元接近近期低點，日元作為傳統避險貨幣仍然受到關注。</p>
</div><p>Gold and oil both edged higher, another sign that investors were rebuilding some protection against the risk of further turbulence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黃金和石油均小幅上漲，另一個跡象表明投資者正在重建對進一步動盪風險的保護。</p>
</div><p><strong>What markets are watching</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>市場關注的焦點</strong></p>
</div><p>For now, the next move will depend on whether tensions around Hormuz escalate further or whether the latest rhetoric proves to be more posturing than policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，下一步的動向將取決於霍爾木茲周圍的緊張局勢是否進一步升級，或者最新的言辭是否更多是姿態而非政策。</p>
</div><p>Any concrete disruption to shipping would quickly intensify worries about supply, inflation and central-bank restraint.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>任何對航運的具體干擾都將迅速加劇對供應、通脹和中央銀行剋制的擔憂。</p>
</div><p>That leaves markets in a fragile position.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這使得市場處於脆弱的狀態。</p>
</div><p>Wednesday’s relief rally showed how quickly sentiment can improve when the threat of escalation recedes, but Thursday’s trading underlined the opposite point just as clearly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週三的寬慰反彈顯示出當升級威脅減退時情緒可以多麼迅速改善，但週四的交易同樣清晰地強調了相反的觀點。</p>
</div>

Kospi slips as Iran's Hormuz gambit puts Asian markets back on edge

Invezz

美國油氣勘探與生產 ETF - iShares

標普全球能源股指數 ETF - iShares

南方國證石油天然氣ETF

國泰中證油氣產業ETF

博時中證油氣資源ETF

美國布倫特原油期貨基金

油氣開採 ETF - SPDR

油氣服務 ETF - Market Vectors

能源業 ETF - Vanguard

華夏中證石化產業ETF

美國 WTI 原油 ETF

2 倍做多彭博原油 ETF - ProShares

標普油氣設備與服務 ETF - SPDR

美國石油設備與服務 ETF - iShares

煉油公司指數 ETF - VanEck Vectors

匯添富中證油氣資源ETF

能源業 ETF - SPDR

由於伊朗在霍爾木茲海峽的策略使亞洲市場重新陷入緊張，Kospi 指數下滑