--- title: "亞洲開發銀行稱，中東衝突正在考驗亞洲的經濟韌性" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/282264966.md" description: "亞洲開發銀行警告稱，持續的中東衝突對亞太經濟構成重大風險，可能導致通貨膨脹上升和經濟增長放緩。首席經濟學家阿爾伯特·帕克強調，地緣政治緊張局勢是該地區經濟前景的核心。如果衝突持續，今年的增長可能降至 4.7%，同時通貨膨脹上升。報告還指出，商品供應中斷影響農業和技術行業，並警告金融環境收緊將對高槓杆經濟體產生影響。總體而言，各個子地區的增長預計將放緩，對各國的影響各不相同" datetime: "2026-04-10T00:30:45.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/282264966.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282264966.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/282264966.md) --- # 亞洲開發銀行稱，中東衝突正在考驗亞洲的經濟韌性 By Fabiana Negrin Ochoa and Jihye Lee Asia-Pacific economies face a challenging time ahead as the fallout of the Middle East conflict threatens to fan inflation and curb growth, the Asian Development Bank says in its latest outlook. "The conflict in the Middle East places geopolitical risks squarely at the center of the economic outlook for developing Asia and the Pacific," said Albert Park, chief economist at ADB. The report comes after the U.S. struck a fragile cease-fire with Iran after five weeks of hostilities also involving Israel, which said it has backed the truce. "The cease-fire still appears quite fragile," Park said, adding that "prediction markets are not putting a high probability that it's going to last." When the multilateral development bank finalized its forecasts on March 10, it envisaged the conflict lasting around 1 month, with disruptions gradually easing thereafter. Under that scenario, it projects that growth in developing Asia and the Pacific will cool to 5.1% in both 2026 and 2027 from 5.4% last year, buoyed by still-resilient domestic demand. That assumes oil and gas prices peak in March, then normalize gradually. In that case, the crisis raises inflation across developing Asia and dampens gross domestic product growth in energy-importing economies this year, but does not materially undermine the region's resilience. But if tensions last through the third quarter, growth could slow to 4.7% this year, and to 4.8% the next. "All of those \[scenarios\] lead to downgrades in terms of growth and increases in terms of inflation," said Park. "We're just in this range of uncertainty." And it's not just energy prices that pose an economic threat for Asia. Gulf economies are major suppliers of fertilizers and related inputs, including urea and ammonia, much of which go through the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway through which the vast majority of Middle East commodity exports are transported, ADB said. Fighting has effectively choked off traffic through the strait, sending prices of many commodities soaring, with implications for industries from electronics to farming. Higher fertilizer prices raise agricultural production costs, eventually feeding through to food prices, while semiconductor output could be affected by disruptions to shipments of helium, sulfur and petrochemical products used in chipmaking, the ADB said. The conflict also interrupts aviation links between Asia and Europe, which will weigh on tourism-dependent economies, the Manila-based bank added. Remittance inflows from the Middle East, too, could slow. Another drag comes from the toll the conflict is taking on financial markets. Steep equities selloffs can curb confidence and consumption, ADB said, and regional financial conditions have already tightened. A further deterioration would exacerbate debt issues in highly leveraged economies. While the impact will be felt differently across Asia, ADB thinks growth will slow in all subregions. Growth in advanced economies--a grouping including Australia, Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan--is expected to slow to 2.2% this year from 2.5% in 2025, before weakening to 1.8% in 2027. "Strong technology exports will only partly offset trade constraints and the fallout from the Middle East conflict," the ADB said. Growth in Japan is set to soften markedly as high energy prices dim market sentiment and the boost from export front-loading last year to get ahead of tariffs fades. By contrast, the bank sees growth picking in South Korea and staying strong in Taiwan thanks to sustained demand for semiconductors. The pace of economic expansion in developing Asia and the Pacific--a group comprising the ADB's 43 members--will remain stronger outside of China. In China, exports and investment in high-tech sectors will help offset subdued household consumption and property investment, but ADB still expects GDP growth to moderate in 2026 and 2027. Growth in India will ease but remain robust, bolstered by resilient consumption, recent trade agreements and structural reforms. Write to Fabiana Negrin Ochoa at fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com and Jihye Lee at jihye.lee@wsj.com (END) Dow Jones Newswires April 09, 2026 20:14 ET (00:14 GMT) Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. ### 相關股票 - [EPP.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/EPP.US.md) - [GMF.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/GMF.US.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [中東衝突致油價飆升威脅印度經濟 盧比重貶探新低](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286664901.md) - [全球市場動盪：地緣政治影響金融，科技需求激增引發新機遇](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286838455.md) - [嚴峻外貿形勢如何找機會？ 這家台商不靠低價爭取歐美客户](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286912630.md) - [電能實業：出售 UKPN 不代表業務策略轉變，地緣政治不會對業務構成重大影響](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/287060090.md) - [G7 財長巴黎會議 聚焦全球經濟失衡與貿易摩擦](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286716289.md)