--- title: "新興市場 - 拉美股票和外匯因美國與伊朗關係緩和的預期而上漲" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/282744114.md" description: "拉丁美洲的股票和貨幣上漲，因為對美國與伊朗談判以緩解中東緊張局勢的樂觀情緒增加。拉美股票的 MSCI 指數上漲了 0.8%，而貨幣上漲了 0.6%。儘管出現反彈，國際貨幣基金組織將 2026 年新興市場的增長預測下調至 3.9%，並指出如果衝突升級，將面臨衰退風險。巴西的盧拉在選舉民調中領先，哥倫比亞則撤回了對厄瓜多爾進口商品的關税計劃。油價跌破 100 美元，負面影響了能源股票。總體而言，該地區的市場正在對地緣政治發展和經濟預測作出反應" datetime: "2026-04-14T20:33:00.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/282744114.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/282744114.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/282744114.md) --- # 新興市場 - 拉美股票和外匯因美國與伊朗關係緩和的預期而上漲 \* Latam assets rebound as US-Iran talks expected to resume, easing oil concerns \* IMF lowers 2026 growth outlook for EM, warns of recession risk if conflict escalates \* Brazil election poll shows Lula ahead; Peru runoff set with Fujimori \* Colombia reverses plan for 100% tariffs on Ecuadorean imports (Updates with afternoon trading) By Johann M Cherian and Twesha Dikshit April 14 (Reuters) - Stocks and currencies across most Latin American markets rose on Tuesday with investors optimistic that the United States and Iran would continue negotiations to end the conflict in the Middle East that has rattled global markets. MSCI's index tracking equities in the region rose 0.8%, trading at multi-year highs. A corresponding index tracking currencies added 0.6% as the safe-haven dollar slipped. Both indexes have recouped their losses since the start of the conflict with Iran in late February, with the currencies benchmark at a record high. "The peak EM FX sell-off did not look particularly dramatic compared to other sharp risk-off periods, while several currencies are already trading at levels stronger versus the USD than before the war started," JPMorgan analysts said in a note, while stating a preference for Latam and EMEA EM FX. Negotiating teams from Washington and Tehran could return to Islamabad this week to resume talks to end the war, sources told Reuters, after the collapse of weekend negotiations prompted Washington to impose a blockade on Iranian ports. Oil prices fell over 1% and slipped below $100 a barrel. Oil-deficient Chile's peso appreciated 0.8%, the most among major economies in Latam, while Colombia's peso and Mexico's peso firmed 0.2% each. Energy companies' share prices fell, with Petrobras down 4.2%, Ecopetrol down 4.4% and Argentina's YPF down 2.2%, tracking weaker oil prices. GROWTH WORRIES LOOM Despite optimism over the prospects for peace talks, uncertainties remained regarding the economic repercussions of the month-long conflict. The International Monetary Fund lowered its outlook for global growth and warned that the global economy would teeter on the brink of recession if the conflict worsens and if oil stays above $100 per barrel through 2027. The fund lowered its 2026 growth forecast for emerging market and developing economies to 3.9% from its view of 4.2% in January, with commodity-importing countries expected to be hit the hardest due to higher energy and food costs. Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean, however, was revised higher by 0.1 percentage point to 2.3% for 2026, helped by exporters such as Brazil, where higher oil prices provide some relief. Elections will be a pivotal event for Brazil later this year and a CNT/MDA poll showed that President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was ahead of Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a potential runoff in the October general election. The local stock index edged up 0.4% and hit a record high. Meanwhile, Argentine bonds were marginally higher after a media report that the country will reach a staff-level agreement with the IMF on the second review of its $20 billion program as early as this week. Argentina's monthly inflation rate came in higher than analyst expectations, as markets keep a close eye on the impact of the Middle East conflict on the global economy. The benchmark stock index dropped 1.2%, while the local peso weakened 0.7%. Peru's sol slipped 0.5%. Elections over the weekend showed conservative candidate Keiko Fujimori will advance to a presidential runoff after she received 16.9% of the votes, with 74% of votes counted. Colombian President Gustavo Petro said his country would not impose 100% tariffs on imports from Ecuador, reversing an announcement made last week by the trade ministry. Local stocks added 0.6%. The U.S. issued a Venezuela-related general license that allows financial transactions involving certain Venezuelan banks and Venezuelan government individuals, according to documents posted to the U.S. Treasury Department's website. Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies at 19:51 GMT: Stock indexes Latest Daily % change MSCI Emerging 1568.52 2.12 Markets MSCI LatAm 3363.15 0.79 Brazil Bovespa 198838.5 0.42 7 Mexico IPC 68957.47 -0.92 Chile IPSA 11321.42 1.69 Argentina MerVal 2956127. -1.19 86 Colombia COLCAP 2360.28 0.55 Currencies Latest Daily % change Brazil real 4.9903 0.12 Mexico peso 17.2557 0.26 Chile peso 885.88 0.79 Colombia 3578.56 0.24 peso Peru sol 3.3881 -0.54 Argentina 1,365.0 -0.74 peso (interbank) Argentina 1,390.0 0 peso (parallel) (Reporting by Johann M Cherian and Twesha Dikshit in Bengaluru; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Edmund Klamann) ### 相關股票 - [ILF.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/ILF.US.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [伊朗媒體：國會議長卡利巴夫獲任命 負責對中關係](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286669979.md) - [全球市場動盪：地緣政治影響金融，科技需求激增引發新機遇](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286838455.md) - [伊朗戰爭衝擊全球企業 路透：至少損失 250 億美元](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286744478.md) - [伊朗和談丨美伊協議草案據報已達成 料數小時內公佈](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/287257740.md) - [中東局勢丨伊朗稱美國修改後提案要求仍過分](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/286791932.md)