<p>路透社發佈了一份來自歐洲央行消息來源的報告，稱他們對在四月加息持謹慎態度，因為尚未看到第二輪效應的證據。</p>
<p>昨天，市場對加息的預期為 39%，這看起來是為了降低這一預期。歐洲央行的做事方式很奇怪，因為拉加德昨天在發言，完全可以自己做出這個決定，但卻沒有給出任何暗示。</p>
<p>我猜這是一種從鷹派言論中逐步退卻的過程，因為戰爭正在結束。四月加息的概率已經降至 23%，而六月的單次加息已被定價為 57 個基點的加息。</p>
<p>所有這些聽起來對我來説都太鷹派了，因為國際貨幣基金組織昨天將其對歐元區的增長預測從 1.3% 下調至 1.1%。</p>
<p>歐元基本沒有變動。</p>

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<p>路透社報道，由於缺乏第二輪效應的證據，歐洲央行政策制定者對四月份加息持謹慎態度。市場對四月份加息的預期已從 39% 降至 23%，目前預計將在六月份進行一次加息。國際貨幣基金組織也將其對歐元區的增長預測從 1.3% 下調至 1.1%。儘管出現這些變化，歐元依然保持穩定</p>

<p>Reuters is out with an ECB sources report that says they're wary of hiking in April as there is no evidence yet of second-round effects.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>路透社發佈了一份來自歐洲央行消息來源的報告，稱他們對在四月加息持謹慎態度，因為尚未看到第二輪效應的證據。</p>
</div><p>Yesterday, the market had been pricing in a 39% chance of a hike and this looks designed to drive that down. The way the ECB does business is bizarre as Lagarde was speaking yesterday and could have done this herself but didn't offer any kind of nod.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>昨天，市場對加息的預期為 39%，這看起來是為了降低這一預期。歐洲央行的做事方式很奇怪，因為拉加德昨天在發言，完全可以自己做出這個決定，但卻沒有給出任何暗示。</p>
</div><p>My guess is that this is part of a long climbdown from hawkish talk as the war winds down. The odds of an April hike are already down to 23% and a single hike is now priced in For June with 57 bps of hikes on the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我猜這是一種從鷹派言論中逐步退卻的過程，因為戰爭正在結束。四月加息的概率已經降至 23%，而六月的單次加息已被定價為 57 個基點的加息。</p>
</div><p>All of that sounds too hawkish to me with the IMF yesterday dropping its Eurozone growth forecast to 1.1% from 1.3%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所有這些聽起來對我來説都太鷹派了，因為國際貨幣基金組織昨天將其對歐元區的增長預測從 1.3% 下調至 1.1%。</p>
</div><p>The euro is largely unmoved.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歐元基本沒有變動。</p>
</div>

ECB sources report: Policymakers wary of April rate hike

- 歐洲央行對四月加息持謹慎態度，尚未見第二輪效應證據。  
- 市場對加息預期降至 23%，六月加息定價為 57 個基點。  
- 國際貨幣基金組織下調歐元區增長預測至 1.1%。

歐洲央行消息人士稱：決策者對四月份加息持謹慎態度