<p>河內——越南已正式滿足所有要求，從前沿市場重新分類為次級新興市場，升級將於 9 月的 FTSE Russell 半年度審查開始生效，這標誌着該國資本市場發展的重要里程碑。</p>
<p>在審查結果公佈後，國家證券委員會（SSC）副主席阮黃海表示，越南股票將分四個階段納入 FTSE 指數，第一階段將於 2026 年 9 月開始，最後階段將在 2027 年 9 月結束。</p>
<p>越南在指數中的權重預計約為 0.04%，相當於約 16 億美元的可投資資本來自被動基金，他指出，被動資金流動只是整體情況的一部分。</p>
<p>彭博社彙編的數據表明，大多數市場在升級後歷史上都記錄了外資流入的強勁增長，無論分類是基於 FTSE 還是 MSCI 標準。統計數據顯示，資本流入通常比升級前的平均水平增加五到七倍。</p>
<p>中國是一個顯著的案例。其 A 股於 2018 年正式納入 MSCI 新興市場指數，恰逢該國在近十年中增長最緩慢的時期之一，正值中美貿易戰期間。</p>
<p>當年，外國投資者撤回超過 110 億美元，隨後在次年以超過 1320 億美元的淨流入迴歸。</p>
<p>對於越南，預測也指向了巨大的流入潛力。</p>
<p>世界銀行在 2024 年估計，成功升級可能吸引多達 250 億美元的新資本。</p>
<p>與此同時，國際經驗表明，流動性改善可能是顯著的。例如，沙特阿拉伯在升級為新興市場地位時，交易價值激增超過 20 倍，活動在此後繼續上升。</p>
<p>然而，升級後的市場表現仍然取決於更廣泛的條件。根據 BIDV 證券公司的分析師，增長的可持續性將取決於宏觀經濟因素，如貨幣和財政政策、每股收益的擴展以及國內改革的進展。</p>
<p>如果升級路線圖完成，越南的市場流動性預計將顯著改善，2026-2030 年期間，平均交易價值預計將在 13 億到 21 億美元之間。</p>
<p>重新分類還預計將引發資本配置的結構性變化。</p>
<p>隨着市場在指數類別之間移動，資本再平衡通常會為舊指數中剩餘成分創造買入壓力，而為新納入升級指數的股票創造賣出壓力。</p>
<p>例如，當一個國家退出前沿指數時，其前期權重為其他成分的增長留出了空間，而進入新興市場指數的股票可能最初面臨與投資組合調整相關的賣出壓力。</p>
<p>然而，歷史數據並不保證統一的上升軌跡。</p>
<p>VPBank 證券的分析師指出，納入 FTSE 新興市場指數並不一定確保持續增長，因為市場趨勢更受宏觀經濟動態的影響。</p>
<p>“升級應被視為一個支持因素和資本流入的重要催化劑，而宏觀基本面將仍然是市場方向的決定性驅動因素，” 該公司表示。</p>
<p>同樣，KB 證券越南預計重新分類將激活來自被動指數跟蹤基金和主動全球投資者的大規模資本輪換進入越南。</p>
<p>根據與 FTSE Russell 一致的情景分析，潛在流入可能在 30 億到 90 億美元之間，對應於 FTSE 新興市場全覆蓋指數中估計的權重為 0.3% 到 1.1%。</p>
<p>另一方面，越南可能面臨來自前沿基金的高達約 10 億美元的資金流出。</p>
<p>儘管如此，這種賣出壓力相對於新興市場配置的預期需求被認為是温和的，有助於資產重新估值，並在正式升級時間表之前增強投資者信心。</p>
<p>然而，短期市場動態仍然受週期性模式的影響。</p>
<p>根據 SSI 研究，投資者情緒可能在四月下半月減弱，反映出季節性趨勢。</p>
<p>歷史上，四月通常是股市較為謹慎的月份，上漲股票的平均比例約為 47.7%，是全年第二低的月份，僅次於十月。</p>
<p>這種季節性下滑通常與市場在年度股東大會後已提前定價商業計劃有關，同時伴隨着第一季度財報季的獲利了結。</p>
<p>由於高油價和利率對盈利能力的影響，加上 2025 年同一時期母公司股東的淨利潤同比增長 33.5% 的高比較基數，第二季度盈利增長放緩的預期可能會帶來額外壓力。</p>
<p>月末的長假可能進一步抑制投資者參與，縮小流動性，可能導致短期波動。——BIZHUB/VNS</p>

db x-trackers 富時越南指數ETF

越南 ETF - VanEck Vectors

VNAM

<p>越南已正式滿足從前沿市場升級為次級新興市場的標準，升級將於 9 月的 FTSE Russell 評估生效。預計這一升級將吸引大量外資流入，估計到 2024 年可能吸引高達 250 億美元的資金。然而，升級後的市場表現將取決於宏觀經濟因素，包括貨幣政策和國內改革。分析師警告，儘管升級是一個積極的催化劑，但持續增長將受到更廣泛經濟條件的影響。短期市場動態也可能因季節性趨勢和獲利了結而面臨挑戰</p>

<p>HÀ NỘI — Việt Nam has officially met all requirements to be reclassified from a frontier market to a secondary emerging market, with the upgrade set to take effect starting with the FTSE Russell semi-annual review in September, marking a significant milestone in the country's capital market development.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>河內——越南已正式滿足所有要求，從前沿市場重新分類為次級新興市場，升級將於 9 月的 FTSE Russell 半年度審查開始生效，這標誌着該國資本市場發展的重要里程碑。</p>
</div><p>After the review results were announced, Vice Chairman of the State Securities Commission (SSC) Bùi Hoàng Hải said Vietnamese stocks would be added to FTSE indices in four phases, starting in September 2026 and concluding in September 2027.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在審查結果公佈後，國家證券委員會（SSC）副主席阮黃海表示，越南股票將分四個階段納入 FTSE 指數，第一階段將於 2026 年 9 月開始，最後階段將在 2027 年 9 月結束。</p>
</div><p>The weighting of Việt Nam in the index is estimated at around 0.04 per cent, equivalent to approximately US$1.6 billion in investable capital from passive funds, he said, noting that passive flows represent only part of the picture.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>越南在指數中的權重預計約為 0.04%，相當於約 16 億美元的可投資資本來自被動基金，他指出，被動資金流動只是整體情況的一部分。</p>
</div><p>Data compiled by Bloomberg shows that most markets historically recorded strong growth in foreign capital inflows following an upgrade, regardless of whether the classification was based on FTSE or MSCI criteria. Statistics indicate that capital inflows typically increase five to seven times compared to the pre-upgrade average.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>彭博社彙編的數據表明，大多數市場在升級後歷史上都記錄了外資流入的強勁增長，無論分類是基於 FTSE 還是 MSCI 標準。統計數據顯示，資本流入通常比升級前的平均水平增加五到七倍。</p>
</div><p>China provides a notable case. Its A-shares were officially included in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index in 2018, coinciding with one of the country's slowest growth periods in nearly a decade amid the US-China trade war.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國是一個顯著的案例。其 A 股於 2018 年正式納入 MSCI 新興市場指數，恰逢該國在近十年中增長最緩慢的時期之一，正值中美貿易戰期間。</p>
</div><p>Foreign investors withdrew more than $11 billion that year, before returning with net inflows exceeding $132 billion the following year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當年，外國投資者撤回超過 110 億美元，隨後在次年以超過 1320 億美元的淨流入迴歸。</p>
</div><p>For Việt Nam, projections have also pointed to substantial inflow potential.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於越南，預測也指向了巨大的流入潛力。</p>
</div><p>The World Bank estimated in 2024 that a successful upgrade could attract up to $25 billion in new capital.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>世界銀行在 2024 年估計，成功升級可能吸引多達 250 億美元的新資本。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, international experience suggests liquidity improvements can be significant. Saudi Arabia, for instance, saw trading value surge more than 20-fold around the time of its upgrade to emerging market status, with activity continuing to rise thereafter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，國際經驗表明，流動性改善可能是顯著的。例如，沙特阿拉伯在升級為新興市場地位時，交易價值激增超過 20 倍，活動在此後繼續上升。</p>
</div><p>However, post-upgrade market performance remains contingent on broader conditions. According to analysts at BIDV Securities Company, the sustainability of growth will depend on macroeconomic factors, such as monetary and fiscal policy, earnings per share expansion and the pace of domestic reforms.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，升級後的市場表現仍然取決於更廣泛的條件。根據 BIDV 證券公司的分析師，增長的可持續性將取決於宏觀經濟因素，如貨幣和財政政策、每股收益的擴展以及國內改革的進展。</p>
</div><p>Việt Nam's market liquidity is projected to improve markedly if the upgrade roadmap is completed, with average trading value expected to reach between $1.3 billion and $2.1 billion per session during the 2026-2030 period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果升級路線圖完成，越南的市場流動性預計將顯著改善，2026-2030 年期間，平均交易價值預計將在 13 億到 21 億美元之間。</p>
</div><p>The reclassification is also expected to trigger a structural shift in capital allocation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重新分類還預計將引發資本配置的結構性變化。</p>
</div><p>As markets move between index categories, capital rebalancing often creates buying pressure for remaining constituents in the old index and selling pressure for stocks newly added to the upgraded index.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着市場在指數類別之間移動，資本再平衡通常會為舊指數中剩餘成分創造買入壓力，而為新納入升級指數的股票創造賣出壓力。</p>
</div><p>For example, when a country exits a frontier index, its former weight leaves room for other constituents to grow, while stocks entering emerging market indices may initially face portfolio adjustment-related selling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，當一個國家退出前沿指數時，其前期權重為其他成分的增長留出了空間，而進入新興市場指數的股票可能最初面臨與投資組合調整相關的賣出壓力。</p>
</div><p>Historical data, however, does not guarantee a uniform upward trajectory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，歷史數據並不保證統一的上升軌跡。</p>
</div><p>Analysts at VPBank Securities noted that inclusion in the FTSE Emerging Markets Index does not necessarily ensure sustained growth, as market trends are more heavily influenced by macroeconomic dynamics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>VPBank 證券的分析師指出，納入 FTSE 新興市場指數並不一定確保持續增長，因為市場趨勢更受宏觀經濟動態的影響。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The upgrade should be viewed as a supportive factor and an important catalyst for capital inflows, while macro fundamentals will remain the decisive driver of market direction,&#34; the firm said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“升級應被視為一個支持因素和資本流入的重要催化劑，而宏觀基本面將仍然是市場方向的決定性驅動因素，” 該公司表示。</p>
</div><p>Similarly, KB Securities Vietnam expects the reclassification to activate large-scale capital rotation from both passive index-tracking funds and active global investors into Việt Nam.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同樣，KB 證券越南預計重新分類將激活來自被動指數跟蹤基金和主動全球投資者的大規模資本輪換進入越南。</p>
</div><p>Based on scenario analyses aligned with FTSE Russell, potential inflows could range from $3-9 billion, corresponding to an estimated weighting of 0.3 per cent to 1.1 per cent in the FTSE Emerging All Cap Index.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據與 FTSE Russell 一致的情景分析，潛在流入可能在 30 億到 90 億美元之間，對應於 FTSE 新興市場全覆蓋指數中估計的權重為 0.3% 到 1.1%。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, Việt Nam could face outflows of up to around $1 billion from frontier-focused funds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，越南可能面臨來自前沿基金的高達約 10 億美元的資金流出。</p>
</div><p>Nevertheless, this selling pressure is considered modest relative to the expected demand from emerging market allocations, contributing to asset revaluation and reinforcing investor confidence ahead of the formal upgrade timeline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，這種賣出壓力相對於新興市場配置的預期需求被認為是温和的，有助於資產重新估值，並在正式升級時間表之前增強投資者信心。</p>
</div><p>Short-term market dynamics, however, remain subject to cyclical patterns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，短期市場動態仍然受週期性模式的影響。</p>
</div><p>According to SSI Research, investor sentiment may soften in the latter half of April, reflecting seasonal trends.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 SSI 研究，投資者情緒可能在四月下半月減弱，反映出季節性趨勢。</p>
</div><p>Historically, April has been one of the more cautious months for equities, with the average proportion of advancing stocks at around 47.7 per cent, the second lowest of the year after October.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歷史上，四月通常是股市較為謹慎的月份，上漲股票的平均比例約為 47.7%，是全年第二低的月份，僅次於十月。</p>
</div><p>This seasonal dip is often linked to the market having already priced in business plans following annual general meetings, alongside profit-taking during the first quarter earnings season.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種季節性下滑通常與市場在年度股東大會後已提前定價商業計劃有關，同時伴隨着第一季度財報季的獲利了結。</p>
</div><p>Additional pressures may emerge from expectations of slower earnings growth in the second quarter, as elevated fuel prices and interest rates weigh on profitability, coupled with a high comparison base from the same period in 2025, when net profit after tax attributable to parent company shareholders rose by 33.5 per cent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於高油價和利率對盈利能力的影響，加上 2025 年同一時期母公司股東的淨利潤同比增長 33.5% 的高比較基數，第二季度盈利增長放緩的預期可能會帶來額外壓力。</p>
</div><p>Extended public holidays toward the end of the month may further dampen investor participation and narrow liquidity, potentially leading to short-term volatility. — BIZHUB/VNS</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>月末的長假可能進一步抑制投資者參與，縮小流動性，可能導致短期波動。——BIZHUB/VNS</p>
</div>

宏觀經濟將在升級後對股市發揮關鍵作用