--- title: "由於美國和伊朗關係緩和的希望，天然氣股票上漲；分析師認為漲幅有限" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/283096082.md" description: "4 月 17 日，隨着美國總統特朗普的言論暗示伊朗戰爭可能結束，天然氣股票大幅上漲。古吉拉特州石油網的股票上漲了 9%，古吉拉特天然氣和 Aegis Logistics 的股價均上漲超過 7%。Elara Securities 的分析師警告稱，樂觀情緒中的大部分可能已經反映在股價中，預計未來的漲幅有限。他們強調，未來的股票表現將更多依賴於公司特定因素，而非地緣政治事件。Equirus Capital 警告，由於天然氣輸入成本上升，城市天然氣分銷公司的利潤空間將受到壓縮，尤其是古吉拉特天然氣將受到影響" datetime: "2026-04-16T21:42:49.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/283096082.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/283096082.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/283096082.md) --- # 由於美國和伊朗關係緩和的希望，天然氣股票上漲；分析師認為漲幅有限 Shares of gas transmission and distribution companies were trading higher on Friday, April 17, after US President Donald Trump signalled that the Iran war is very close to over. At an event in Las Vegas, US President Donald Trump said the war in Iran is “going along swimmingly” and added that it “should be ending pretty soon.” Around 10:25 AM, shares of Gujarat State Petronet were up 9 per cent, while Gujarat Gas and Aegis Logistics gained over 7 per cent each. Gujarat State jumped over 14 per cent to hit an intraday high of ₹289 against the previous session's close of ₹252.29 on the NSE. Adani Total Gas rose 3.25 per cent, Mahanagar Gas added 2.9 per cent, and Indraprastha Gas was up 1.85 per cent. In comparison, the benchmark NSE Nifty50 was trading at 24,301.95 levels, up by 105.20 points or 0.43 per cent. The Nifty Oil & Gas index was quoting at 11,339.90 levels, up 0.75 per cent. Oil prices have remained below the $100 per barrel mark amid hopes that the US and Iran will extend their ceasefire by another two weeks. Trump said the next round of talks with Tehran could take place this weekend, after negotiations in Islamabad last weekend left Iran’s nuclear ambitions among the key unresolved issues. Additionally, a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon came into effect on Thursday, further supporting sentiment. Last checked, the global oil benchmark Brent Crude was trading at $98.08 levels, down 1.32 per cent. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was at $93.33 per barrel, down 1.44 per cent. **ALSO READ: BPCL arm to invest $2.8 billion in Brazil's oil and gas exploration project** **Here's what the brokerages say:** According to Elara Securities, much of the optimism around geopolitical de-escalation may already be priced into gas stocks, as most companies are currently factoring in crude oil levels of around $85–89 per barrel. This suggests that any further upside from easing tensions could be limited. The brokerage added that going ahead, stock performance is likely to be driven more by company-specific factors such as earnings recovery, volume visibility, and policy support, rather than purely event-led rerating. It expects Mahanagar Gas to outperform, supported by strong volume growth visibility, while Petronet LNG could benefit from rising contracted LNG volumes and improved throughput. On the other hand, Gujarat Gas and Gujarat State Petronet may face a relatively slower recovery, as industrial gas demand remains sensitive to unfavourable LNG versus LPG pricing. "With LNG likely to remain elevated, industrial volume may recover with a lag, constraining near-term earnings recovery visibility. Gujarat State's stock performance remains closely tied to Gujarat Gas, particularly amid the ongoing restructuring story, implying Gujarat Gas is likely to follow a similar, softer recovery path," the brokerage said in its note. Elara added that while LPG supply is expected to normalise faster, LNG markets could stay tighter for longer due to supply-side disruptions, keeping input costs elevated for industrial consumers. The brokerage also highlighted that a government push to expand piped natural gas (PNG) connections could support long-term demand growth for city gas distributors such as Indraprastha Gas and Mahanagar Gas, improving volume visibility over the medium term. **ALSO READ: HDFC Life falls 4% after weak Q4; analysts cut estimates, see FY27 recovery** Analysts at Equirus Capital expect city gas distribution (CGD) companies to see sharp margin compression in the March 2026 quarter (Q4FY26) due to rising gas input costs, with the impact varying based on their sourcing mix. Gujarat Gas is expected to be the most affected, as despite a recovery in volumes, particularly from the Morbi cluster, its higher exposure to spot LNG and Brent-linked contracts could lead to a steep decline in spreads, with Ebitda per scm estimated at ₹4.5, down 23 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q). In comparison, Mahanagar Gas and Indraprastha Gas are relatively better placed due to their higher exposure to Henry Hub-linked gas, where prices have softened sequentially, offering some cushion. Additionally, IGL is likely to benefit from the zonal tariff revision. Ebitda per SCM is estimated at ₹7.5 for MGL (down 12 per cent Q-o-Q) and ₹5 for IGL (down 14 per cent Q-o-Q). _**Disclaimer: View and outlook shared belong to the respective brokerages/analysts and are not endorsed by Business Standard. 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