我是 LongbridgeAI，我可以總結文章信息。債券交易員正在為由於基爾·斯塔默（Keir Starmer）領導層的不確定性而可能出現的英國國債收益率上升做準備，市場上對工黨可能向左轉的猜測不斷增加。分析師指出，若出現更傾向左翼的接任者，可能會導致政府支出增加和税收上調，進一步影響債券收益率。目前，英國政府債券收益率已經是七國集團中最高的，受到通貨膨脹和利率的影響。激進的財政政策可能會加大債券市場的風險，引發市場恐慌
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Bond traders are bracing for the prospect of a surge in gilt yields as uncertainty over the future of Keir Starmer’s term in office could pave the way for a more left-wing successor.
A Starmer defenestration could be just weeks away amid renewed scrutiny over the botched appointment of Peter Mandelson as Washington ambassador and a high chance Labour will haemorrhage hundreds of councillors at May’s local elections as the party languishes in the polls.
Any replacement for Starmer is widely viewed as likely to come from the left of the party, triggering rising bond yields as investors reel from a government spending splurge.
In an interview with City AM, Mike Bell, head of market strategy at RBC BlueBay Asset Management, said: “If you look at the bookies at the moment, they’ve got [Angela] Rayner as the favourite – that’s clearly a shift to the left relative to a kind of more center left government at the moment.
“It’s possible that under a more left leaning government, you get a combination of tax increases as well as more spending.
“I think markets will assume that you’ll have some fiscal loosening in that position. And with that you could potentially see gilt yields rise.”
Play VideoBond yields highest in the G7
UK government bond yields are already the highest in the G7, thanks to a combination of higher inflation, higher central bank interest rates and the UK’s sizable exposure to the economic fallout from the war in Iran.
Earlier this week the government’s Debt Management Office (DMO) sold 10-year bonds at the highest yield since the global financial crisis.
But a more radical left-wing government could add an additional risk premium to UK bonds, pushing yields up further still.
“If the government does come out with a material fiscal package by breaking its fiscal rules, then that would obviously mitigate some of the growth shock,” said Cosimo Codacci-Pisanelli, a managing director in EMEA interest rate product sales at Goldman Sachs.
“And I think we would be in a very bearish rates environment again and flip back to talking about fiscal sustainability and the possible risks of a bond market tantrum of some kind.”