--- title: "由於霍爾木茲海峽的緊張局勢再次升級，市場可能會在週一出現新的波動" type: "News" locale: "zh-HK" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/283250877.md" description: "印度股市預計將在週一低開，原因是伊朗對霍爾木茲海口重新開放的決定反轉，這引發了對和平談判和能源價格的擔憂。近期的緊張局勢，包括對印度國旗船隻的攻擊，打擊了市場的樂觀情緒。分析師預測市場可能會出現調整，能源價格將是一個關鍵因素。儘管外資投資者最近轉為淨買入，但總體上仍然是淨賣出。鑑於這些地緣政治的不確定性，投資者被建議保持謹慎，因為市場走勢在很大程度上將取決於霍爾木茲海口的事態發展和能源價格" datetime: "2026-04-19T02:53:39.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/283250877.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/283250877.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/283250877.md) --- # 由於霍爾木茲海峽的緊張局勢再次升級，市場可能會在週一出現新的波動 Indian equities are likely to open with a gap down on Monday, as Iran’s decision to reverse its plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has raised concerns about the trajectory of peace talks and energy prices. Uncertainties resurfaced after Iran, on Saturday, reasserted its control over the strait after blaming the US for violating a ceasefire agreement by maintaining its own blockade of Iranian ports and firing on vessels attempting to pass the strait. Two Indian-flagged ships had come under fire in the strait during the weekend. Iran had earlier announced it would allow shipping to pass through Hormuz. The current development has dented hopes of a sustained de-escalation, which had buoyed sentiment last week. Indian equities gained for the second straight week on Friday as easing geopolitical concerns boosted global risk sentiment. The benchmark Nifty and Sensex rose more than 1.2 per cent last week. For the week before that, the Sensex surged 5.8 per cent and the Nifty 5.9 per cent — their strongest performance since February 2021. “Markets could be disappointed on Monday and may give up the gains. If further developments indicate no progress, the market could even fall further. At the moment, developments around the talks and the status of the Strait of Hormuz will matter more for markets than the earnings season. Unless there are major surprises, earnings are unlikely to move the market significantly,” said U R Bhat, co-founder of Alphaniti Fintech. Bhat added that investors should remain cautious and avoid rushing into positions in the current situation. “These geopolitical developments are difficult to model or predict, and the market has already recovered quite a bit from recent lows. It may be wiser to wait for a clear and conclusive agreement, even if that means buying at slightly higher levels later,” said Bhat. Though a gap-down opening is expected on Monday, the extent of the correction will be limited, given the moderation in valuations after the recent correction and ongoing talks. “Markets may open flat or a bit down, but it would not be a major crack as such. Market sentiment has been positive over the last few days. The fresh shutdown could be a negotiation tactic. Major gaps down are unlikely unless a full-scale conflict restarts,” said Ambaresh Baliga, an independent equity analyst. Market direction in the near term would hinge largely on energy prices. “If Brent crude touches $100 per barrel again, we should expect up to a 2 per cent correction in the market in the next couple of days. While the fighting may be over, the economic damage will continue as long as shipping routes remain disrupted. And there are reports that gas infrastructure has been damaged, which could mean shortages persist for an extended period,” said Saurabh Mukherjea, founder and chief investment officer of Marcellus Investment Managers. Foreign portfolio investor (FPI) flows will also be watched. While FPIs turned net buyers recently, they have been net sellers to the tune of Rs 43,419 crore. FPIs were net buyers worth Rs 683 crore on Friday, while domestic institutions were net sellers worth Rs 4,722 crore. ### 相關股票 - [BP.UK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/BP.UK.md) - [OXY.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/OXY.US.md) - [BNO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/BNO.US.md) - [CRAK.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/CRAK.US.md) - [IEZ.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IEZ.US.md) - [IXC.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IXC.US.md) - [USO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/USO.US.md) - [OIH.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/OIH.US.md) - [UCO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/UCO.US.md) - [INDA.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/INDA.US.md) - [INDY.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/INDY.US.md) - [IEO.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/IEO.US.md) - [XES.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/XES.US.md) - [VDE.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/VDE.US.md) - [XOP.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/XOP.US.md) - [XLE.US](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/quote/XLE.US.md) ## 相關資訊與研究 - [中東戰爭推升能源價格 聯準會利率連 3 凍](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/284624228.md) - [美擬首次對伊朗部署高超音速導彈「暗鷹」油價創四年高 布油漲近 7%](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/284725668.md) - [能源價格撐起通膨！美國 3 月 PCE 升温 Fed 降息路更遠了](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/284783483.md) - [全球多極化加劇，美伊緊張局勢影響經濟與供應鏈穩定](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/284479469.md) - [整理包／阿聯退羣 OPEC 衝擊全解析](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/284485209.md)